Ukrainian War Developments

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stoss860420

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Conscripts, reservists don’t and won’t take part in operation in Ukraine - Putin​

Missions are carried out only by professional troops, Putin said

MOSCOW, March 8. /TASS/. Russian President Vladimir Putin said conscripts and reservists aren’t taking part in Russia’s military operation in Ukraine and won’t do so.

"I would like to emphasize that conscripts aren’t and won’t be taking part in hostilities, and there will be no additional call-up of reservists from the reserve," he said in a video address to women on the occasion of the International Women’s Day celebrated on March 8, which was posted on the Kremlin website. "Missions are carried out only by professional troops."
Thank you for the link. I do find this hard to believe in terms of initial fighting as it was clear to me that the initial advances were getting ambushed left and right and their spacing was atrocious. Had a discussion on Russian doctrine a couple days ago and that statement does not add up to how the Russians fight. They may have been pulled out and/or won't be the reinforcements. "In chess, the pawns go first"

I could be wrong. Anyone else got some more insight?
 

sferrin

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No. There is no such limitation for missile tests.

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1. Each Party shall eliminate all its intermediate-range missiles and launchers of such missiles, and all support structures and support equipment of the categories listed in the Memorandum of Understanding associated with such missiles and launchers, so that no later than three years after entry into force of this Treaty and thereafter no such missiles, launchers, support structures or support equipment shall be possessed by either Party.

The US violated the treaty the moment they put AEGIS Ashore with Mk 41 VLS in service in Europe. Mk 41 VLS was always able to launch Tomahawk cruise missile. Tomahawk cruise missile was designed to carry either conventional or nuclear payload.

INF Treaty does not limit range of ship based intermediate range missiles but it does limit range of land based ones. In fact INF Treaty was highly unequal for Soviet Union. Since back then Soviet Union had RSD-10 missile in large numbers but little numbers of Kh-55 in service. The US had the opposite situation. Then again it was signed by Gorbachev the butcher of the USSR.

11. A ballistic missile which is not a missile to be used in a ground-based mode shall not be considered to be a GLBM if it is test-launched at a test site from a fixed land-based launcher which is used solely for test purposes and which is distinguishable from GLBM launchers. A cruise missile which is not a missile to be used in a ground-based mode shall not be considered to be a GLCM if it is test-launched at a test site from a fixed land-based launcher which is used solely for test purposes and which is distinguishable from GLCM launchers.

i.e. it is possible to conduct land based tests of naval missiles.


Except they did. They said Iskander-M was never going to have range over 500km and that other tests were for naval cruise missiles.
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“Trump told reporters Monday outside the White House that Beijing's growing arsenal played into his decision to withdraw from the Cold War-era Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, even though China is not a party to the pact. His justification ‘includes China, and it includes Russia, and it includes anybody else that wants to play that game,’ Trump said.” "You can’t do that. You can’t play that game on me," he added.


That's not "letting slip". It's also YEARS after Russia violated the INF Treaty.
 

meckhardt98

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Quite a bit of movement from NATO over the past 24hrs.

Train carrying at-least two dozen M1A2s out of Frankfurt; large columns of armored vehicles on tractor trailer have been seen entering Bosnia; NATO still keeps a significant military force there for peace keeping operations.

SecDef Mr. Austin approved for additional F35(s), B52(s), and F15(s) alongside 500 supporting USAF personal to be sent to Europe. An additional 7,000 army personnel touched down in Germany yesterday on direct orders from the SecDef.

Belgian military convoy comprised of over a hundred vehicles is heading for Romania.

US has moved additional Ah64 and UH60 helicopters and personnel from the 1st Air Calvary Brigade from Greece to Poland amidst NATOs “Sabre Strike 22” maneuvers and tensions with Russia on the border of Ukraine.

NATO F16s have been on constant air patrol from Keflavik Airbase in Iceland.

Overall there’s been an increase in mobilization in military forces; especially from the United States; at an unprecedented scale not seen since the Cold War, alongside an increase in military excises and maneuvers with all branches across all commands that the United States and NATO operate in.
 

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LawLeadsToPeace

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Quite a bit of movement from NATO over the past 24hrs.

Train carrying at-least two dozen M1A2s out of Frankfurt; large columns of armored vehicles on tractor trailer have been seen entering Bosnia; NATO still keeps a significant military force there for peace keeping operations.

SecDef Mr. Austin approved for additional F35(s), B52(s), and F15(s) alongside 500 supporting USAF personal to be sent to Europe. An additional 7,000 army personnel touched down in Germany yesterday on direct orders from the SecDef.

Belgian military convoy comprised of over a hundred vehicles is heading for Romania.

US has moved additional Ah64 and UH60 helicopters and personnel from the 1st Air Calvary Brigade from Greece to Poland amidst NATOs “Sabre Strike 22” maneuvers and tensions with Russia on the border of Ukraine.

NATO F16s have been on constant air patrol from Keflavik Airbase in Iceland.

Overall there’s been an increase in mobilization in military forces; especially from the United States; at an unprecedented scale not scene since the Cold War, alongside an increase in military excises and maneuvers with all branches across all commands that the United States and NATO operate in.
Looks like the French are also included:
1646706654907.png
That looks like a VAB to me.
 

Atomicfrog

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Registered Member
Quite a bit of movement from NATO over the past 24hrs.

Train carrying at-least two dozen M1A2s out of Frankfurt; large columns of armored vehicles on tractor trailer have been seen entering Bosnia; NATO still keeps a significant military force there for peace keeping operations.

SecDef Mr. Austin approved for additional F35(s), B52(s), and F15(s) alongside 500 supporting USAF personal to be sent to Europe. An additional 7,000 army personnel touched down in Germany yesterday on direct orders from the SecDef.

Belgian military convoy comprised of over a hundred vehicles is heading for Romania.

US has moved additional Ah64 and UH60 helicopters and personnel from the 1st Air Calvary Brigade from Greece to Poland amidst NATOs “Sabre Strike 22” maneuvers and tensions with Russia on the border of Ukraine.

NATO F16s have been on constant air patrol from Keflavik Airbase in Iceland.

Overall there’s been an increase in mobilization in military forces; especially from the United States; at an unprecedented scale not seen since the Cold War, alongside an increase in military excises and maneuvers with all branches across all commands that the United States and NATO operate in.
So they want to tickle the bear until it nuke ? What a good idea...
 

tokenanalyst

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But a dissection of the Russian military’s performance so far, compiled from interviews with two dozen American, NATO and Ukrainian officials, paints a portrait of young, inexperienced conscripted soldiers who have not been empowered to make on-the-spot decisions, and a noncommissioned officer corps that isn’t allowed to make decisions either. Russia’s military leadership, with Gen. Valery Gerasimov at the top, is far too centralized; lieutenants must ask him for permission even on small matters, said the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters.
Those young, inexperienced conscripted soldiers are basically disintegrating Ukraine right now, taking territory that if this continue that Ukrainians will never get it back, the Ukranias are going to become strangers in a strange land, the worst part is the only thing NATO can do is watch from the sidelines. This morale stories are creating a false hope that will hurt more at the end.
 

Atomicfrog

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Wow. I guess times really have changed.

This looks like tickling a bear with a nuke, tempting hellfire and damnation, but for the Cold War, this was just another Monday.
Well the bear is having rabies right now... got out of his cave, trempled some Ukrainians got bitten bad by nazi. Chewed them with some Chechen sauces. Not sure it's a good time.
 
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FairAndUnbiased

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Some of the demands are non-starters.
Changing the constitution to enshrine neutrality, formally recognizing the loss of Crimea and the Donbass.
It was politically impossible before the shooting started, why would it be possible now?
Unsaid is the fact to enforce all this for Russia's benefit requires a puppet government or an occupation.

The Ukrainians see themselves winning so predictably the talks went nowhere. If they really think the Russians will be finished in a week or a month, they'll hold out until then.
well these are the best terms they're going to get.
Extremely important statements by Putin (MUST SEE!) 07 MARCH 2022

As some of you know, Putin spoke at length with a group of Russian flight attendants. This is SUCH AN IMPORTANT STATEMENT that I asked one of our interpreters (thanks E.!) to subtitle the video. I am also posting the transcript below. In this exchange, Putin spells out in quite some details WHAT Russia is doing and WHY she is doing it. ~ Andrei

PS: please press “cc” to see the English language captions



Putin explains the military situation and why Ukraine might lose its future

Source:

Translated and subtitled by Eugenia

[Flight Attendant] My question concerns the current situation in Ukraine. We all support your actions and the special operation that is underway there. Naturally, the most important question, which, one way or another, all of us have asked ourselves, is why this special operation has started. Could it not have been avoided? Rationally, we do understand and support your actions, but as women we cannot help but worry: for our family, relatives, for those who are in Ukraine. We know that the civilians are not impacted. But nevertheless, tell us, reassure us: what are we to expect at the end of this road? What will be the end result of the military operation in Ukraine?

[President Putin] I will be brief but still will have to start, as they say, from “the center of the field”. I said about this at the start of the operation and also spoke about this before this decision has been made, a hard decision, without a doubt.

What is this about? The fact of the matter is that after the anti-constitutional coup in Ukraine, which, unfortunately, was strongly supported by the Western countries – let us face it. They do not even hide the fact that they have spent $5 billion on it, not to mention cookies given away on Maidan, and so on. And after that, instead of bringing the situation back on track, even if it had spiraled out of control, even if it had been the act of the overzealous locals – there is such legal term, i.e. planned one thing, but the result turned out to be something else – they still could have, and should have, returned the situation back onto the political track.

Furthermore, shortly before the coup, the foreign ministers of the three countries came to Kiev in 2014 and signed an agreement with the Ukrainian government acting as guarantors of this agreement to ensure that the situation would be developing in the political sphere. But nothing like that occurred. They organized a coup d’état and supported the perpetrators. What followed were the well-known events related to the Crimea and the southeast of Ukraine, Donbass, where people refused to support the coup. As we know, the Crimea made a decision; people came to vote in a referendum to return to the Russian Federation. Naturally, yes, naturally, we cannot but support that decision, al the more so, since they felt they were in danger from the nationalists and neo-Nazis. There is strong evidence that they were absolutely right in that.

Later, or, rather, in parallel, the events in Donbass were taking place. What have these events led to? People resisting the results of the coup were persecuted. Eventually, the new Kiev authorities initiated a military operation on that territory. They have conducted two large-scale punitive operations using of heavy weapons and combat aviation. They directly attacked Donetsk destroying the city squares with aviation, using tanks and artillery. Both these military campaigns failed. The Ukrainian army suffered defeat. After that, so-called Minsk agreements, or the Package of Measures, to use the official term, have been concluded. The agreements offered a path for a peaceful settlement of the conflict.

We did everything we could to direct the events along this path, to restore the territorial integrity of Ukraine as well as to protects the interests of the people living in these territories. What did these people demand? Nothing but the basic things: the right to speak their mother tongue, i.e. the Russian, and maintain their traditions and culture. These were by no means extraordinary demands. But no. These territories were put under economic blockade; disconnected from the banking system; the supplies of food were stopped; the payments of the pensions and social assistance were suspended. Sometimes, some handouts were given, but in order to get those pensions and benefits a person had to cross the separation line.

Now listen. I will now say something that may sound rough but the situation compels me to say it. You know that occasionally in some regions packs of stray dogs attack people, injure or even kill them (this is a separate problem, and it is for the local authorities to deal with). But then these animals are poisoned or shot dead. But people of Donbass are not stray dogs. Approximately 13,000-14,000 people have been killed during these years. Over 500 children have been killed or injured. But what is particularly intolerable is that the so-called “civilized” West has preferred all these years to look the other way. All these years – 8 years! Eight years!

( . . . )

See the rest of transcript at the site of The Vineyard of the Saker!

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NOTE: I can download the video, but cannot get the English.SRT file, only the Russian.SRT file is available for download. If any one knows how to download the English.SRT file, please info or simply share the English .SRT file by uploading it to some free file hosting service in the net.
from this, I understand Putin's mindset. Ukraine would be best annexed, vassalized or partitioned. But he's also OK with it being destroyed or crippled because he sees it as an existential threat to Russia, proven both by their capabilities and their intent (previous actions). I don't say I agree with him or not. But you can't judge the progression of a war unless you understand the objectives. For the US, they thought they were winning Vietnam and Afghanistan - until the helicopters left Saigon and the C-17s left Kabul. That's because they used the wrong metrics for judging a war since they were unclear on the objectives.

Maybe many of us here are using the wrong metrics too. Too many think this is a voluntary COIN operation or something like Desert Storm or Vietnam, a war of choice that if it doesn't go well or if there's too many casualties or whatever, Russia can withdraw. From Putin's words, that is not how Russian leadership sees it at all.
 
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