Ukrainian War Developments

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9dashline

Captain
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Putin fooled the entire country:



"It really does appear to be the case that despite a meticulous 1 year build up of the biggest invasion force Europe has seen in 50+ years, no one bothered to tell anyone down the Russian chain of command about what they were going to be doing and why up until the last minute. Absolutely stunning lack of communications security on the part of the Russian military - using insecure comms that can be easily listened to.

Think about it - the US government knew more about Russian invasion plans of Ukraine than Russian military lieutenants, sergeants and privates. Due to the attempt to convince the world that he really wasn’t going to invade, Putin managed to shock and blindside his own troops. The lack of plausible pretext for invasion did not just result in Putin instantly turning into an international pariah but also tanked the morale of the force since they can’t understand why they are invading their brotherly nation.

The psychological element of this cannot to be underestimated. Ukraine—Eastern and Southern one in particular—looks like Russia. People speak Russian. Babushka on the street looks like a soldier’s grandmother. Without proper indoctrination, it’s very demoralizing to fight there. And there was no such indoctrination.

There was no training specific to the mission. The whole invasion seems to have been cooked up in the offices of the Russian General Staff on Znamenka Street in Moscow with no one else being told. This is pretty much textbook example of how you NOT launch a war.

Putin’s lies and secrecy may have doomed his efforts before the invasion even began

END"
It has to do with physcology..

For example in the US for lethal injection they use five doctors but at least one of them are shooting placebo and for firing squad at least one riflemans bullet is a blank, this way there is double blind and less guilt etc

Same way for US minuteman only two teams of two out of the team of 5 is needed to launch the nuke, so even if the other 3 teams refuse to launch, the nuke will still fly...

My guess is in a real nuke launch scenario it will be made to be indistingusible from a drill launch that they practice and train all the time.

This might be what Putin did here with his troops etc...
 

SampanViking

The Capitalist
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Actually there is a kalibr-like projectile in original video, you shouldn’t criticize others without doing a little fact checking
Well this is the interesting part. I viewed the video via a Twitter link from the BBC at about 9am GMT. I specifically scrolled the video effectively frame by frame in the last two seconds before the explosion. I can assure everybody that I did not see a projectile on the video at that time.

Now I don't have an issue with the idea of an attack of this sort, the building was a Command and Control center, it is highly likely that it was being used as such by Ukrainian forces in the city, in bunkers beneath it if not necessarily the office space above ground.
I was watching to see what had hit it and was genuinely surprised to see nothing. I checked several times and posted in the link that there was no projectile and that it looked like an explosive charge deliberately let off in the building by the Ukrainian army.

Half an hour later, Sequ posts a picture and then a link showing a very obvious and unmissable cylinder image descending into the building before an explosion. I checked the BBC link and that video now showed a cylinder where none had been before.

Annoyingly the Twitter link on the BBC has disappeared and been replaced by an embedded video.
Now I am not very tecky, and I don;t have a link to the actual tweet I viewed (and I don't know Twitter very well)
I do know however that with so many bright young IT smart guys here, it must be possible for one to find it and to:
a) Check the upload time to see if the last upload was after 9am GMT
b) to see if there is an historical archive of the site that still shows an earlier version of the video.
 

JamesRed

New Member
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Some of the western intelligence agencies like MI5/CIA seem to hold a belief in 'The Secret', a book from the 2000's that states that if you believe something and imagine it then it will come true. You can see this wishful thinking from posts in this thread. These aren't serious people and they're a danger to the world.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
The laughing continues. Or stacking up? Perhaps both! :)
The engine maintenance hatch is open. Geez. I wonder why they just left it there...

And another one!
Tankies can't handle soviet tanks getting captured! Or I should rather say 'gifted' to the enemy? Who knows!
The Germans captured loads of T-34s in WW2. But the Soviets always had more.
When they counted the tank losses there were loads and loads. Then, a couple days later, an engineering team passed and scooped up all the broken tanks and brought them back to the depot. In some cases this was not possible and the Germans even managed to cannibalize parts and ran their own T-34s. They still lost.

Some of those are the same tank.

Putin all this while underestimated European Unity and resolve. This is evident from the act that he reduced his Dollar Holdings and converted it into Euros. Thinking it'll be safe from US sanctions and EU would be too cucked to do anything about it. Turns out that was a disastrous move. He should've stuck with only Gold and Yuan.
Well, Putin gave them a chance to stand up on their own. What you don't hear, is that Russia's corporate and private debts in Euros to Europe far exceed that amount. I have heard numbers of debt and liabilities of $600 billion. European companies also own $500 billions in assets in Russia. So even if Europe confiscates the $280 billion or whatever worth of Euros the RCB has. Guess. Who. Would. Lose.
Russia can just allege force majeure and freeze debt repayments. They can also arrest all European assets in Russia.
Since there is little interaction between US companies and the Russian economy Putin just dumped all the dollars and replaced them with Yuan.

A United Europe can do much more damage than US alone can ever accomplish. But its to be seen how long this unity lasts.
They are being idiots. And they helped cause this mess. You don't poke the bear. Bismark once said it.
…The result of a war (against Russia) would never result in the destruction of the main power of Russia, which rests upon millions of Russians of the Greek [Orthodox] confession. Even if separated by treaty, these would just as soon reunite, like the parts of a splattered drop of mercury.
This indestructible empire of the Russian nation, made strong through its climate, its vast spaces and its resiliency…would after its defeat remain our sworn opponent thirsting for revenge, exactly like France now is in the West…the “smashing” of a nationality by 3 great powers has not happened in connection with the Poles in 100 years.
The vitality of the Russian will be no less; in my opinion we would do well to treat them as a basic danger against which we maintain protective dikes, but which we cannot eliminate from the world.
By attacking Russia we would only further consolidate it; by waiting we could possibly witness their internal decay and decomposition before we experience their attack, and that even sooner, the less we hinder them by threats from plunging deeper into the Orient.

Very interesting insight in Russian military's inability to have secure communication:

Intelligence acquired since the beginning of the Russian military operation over Ukraine has shown an immense lack of logistic support, making this war one of the most unique in 2022 when it comes to surveillance.

For the 1st time in a modern conflict, the regular forces of Russia are communicating without digital mode, making them fully audible by everyone.
...
More and more evidence is emerging that the Russian forces rely on civilian radios and mobile phones for their communications. Our source in one invading unit confirms this.
This situation is more complex than what you are describing. In fact a lot of "modern" armies in Europe have this same problem. They still rely on Cold War era analog radios. In Russia there has been an effort to change to modern radio platforms for quite some time. At least over a decade.

As part of the Ratnik-2 future soldier program the Russians developed the R-187P1 Azart for the individual soldier.
This is a modern hand held system with software defined radio, 20,000 possible frequencies, automatic frequency hopping, hence jam resistant, and encrypted communications. However I have been hearing for several years that the Russian MoD has been exasperated with the low rate of production of the radio equipment. It should have already replaced the equipment for all soldiers in active service but it hasn't. So they supposedly bought market available Chinese handheld radios of the brand you mentioned. But AFAIK those were radios with encryption, they don't transmit in the clear. Some older vehicles might still use radios with non-encrypted communications.
This is more common a situation in armies worldwide than you might think.

To be fair in this war we're seeing Buk from both side losing to things like Mi-24 and TB-2, it feels a bit off.
However I think I saw one video of a TB-2 getting shot down by something with autocannon, a Pantsir maybe. Whatever it was I think AA that's better suited for taking out UAVs will be needed in the future, maybe even vehicle mounted DEW.
Buk is more suited for medium range and larger targets. Tor mostly works but is a bit expensive to use against cheap drones. Even Pantsir is too expensive against masses of cheap drones. They have been developing new sensors and missiles for Pantsir specifically to be more effective against mass drone use.

It's 4:37PM Kiev time, I doubt they would be able to take the city before nightfall.
Which brings me to another point: Russians have shown to be extremely reluctant to conduct night ops in this war, opting instead to use the night for artillery strikes to soften up targets for next day's assault. If you are technologically superior you should be trying to conduct night fight as that's a case where your tech advantage really shows through.
I thought the same. But I have seen no night fighting equipment on any of the troops yet. I assume that will come with the 1st echelon troops in case they need to do a large city assault. I have heard a lot of reports on night fighting equipment. From what they had solved the technical problems and had mass produced large quantities, to that they did not have enough or cheap enough for all the troops.
Looking at the current situation, perhaps they should have just dropped it and bought cheap ones from China for mass usage.
Unlike what a lot of people say, I don't think this war was something the Russians expected to have to do. It was a plan B.
The political statements the days before the invasion precipitated these events.
But the idea these are conscripts, not trained, or whatever, like a lot of Western "analysts" seem to be spouting is bogus.

If I was a Turkey politician, I would imitate the Zalensky method because that's the surest way of getting an EU admission.
You know, accepting the admission request is not the same as accepting your admission. It is a highly bureaucratic process. Even Turkey went to this exact same process before, the EU accepted the request, dragged forever evaluating it, and then it got rejected.

Gratz. They join the ranks of Turkey. I think they got their application accepted at least twice.
 
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