Just for the record, I think most of the discussion around a hypothetical Taiwan contingency occurring in the near future, is all under the assumption that Taiwan pushes too far and crosses a red line, resulting in conflict.
Don't worry. The US will make a conflict happen by pushing China's buttons until they do. Just like they did with Russia this time.
The US can't allow China to surpass it economically and militarily.
I don't think anyone expects China to carry out an unprovoked attack, and most people would agree that from the PLA's side, it is better to wait and further grow their capabilities as the military and economic balance continues to tilt in their favour.
Right. It is in China's interest to delay. But you will see further US sanctions regime happen.
My guess is that they probably have a production bottleneck in electronics supplies
No. They were doing batch production of the Orion drone at an existing factory. They recently finished building a new factory which will be able to do mass production. Nothing to do with electronics supplies, but lack of assembly facility.
After almost 600 pages of discussion, I still don’t get it what’s the end game for Russia and What is Putin envisions future of Russia is.
1. Was Putin so scared of Ukraine joining NATO that he had to invade as last option?
2. Did Putin invaded to maintain monopoly on Gas export to Europe?
3. Does Putin wanna revive USSR ?
4. West could never attack Russia due to Russian Nukes so why is Putin so anxious of NATO?
5. Is Putin afraid of Color Revolution in Russia and he & his supporters might lose their wealth ?
6. Is Putin worried that Russia might split among ethnic, geographical line in next few decades ?
Ukraine had an anti-Russian policy in place. 1/3rd of Ukraine is ethnic Russian. The current regime put laws in place forbidding the teaching of Russian, and speaking Russian in public facing jobs, even if it is just being a restaurant waiter. They also persecuted, and sometimes killed, those who protested against it even if peacefully. Like what happened in Odessa where they pushed people into a building and set it on fire. This started since the US sponsored "Euromaidan" coup in 2014.
Putin could care less about the gas monopoly. Gas & oil is 15% of Russia's government budget. 50% of exports. As you see, Russia is not that dependent on exports unlike the bullshit you hear on Western news sources.
Of course 5. and 6. are a factor. The US recently tried to make coups in Belarus and Kazakhstan. They also sponsored the separatists in Chechnya in the late 1990s who made terror attacks all over Russia including schools and a theater. They bombed people's houses in Moscow. That is how Putin got in power in the first place. Russian power structures wanted someone to clean up house. They are tired of this sort of situation.
Ukraine was already behaving like a de facto NATO member. They hosted NATO instructors, went on NATO missions including to Iraq, go to NATO military exercises in Europe. All they needed was the heavy equipment. And NATO started delivering weapons to Ukraine back when Trump was in office. This accelerated a couple months ago with the anti-tank missiles and shoulder mounted missiles.
I think both points are true to an extent. Drones don't seem as big a part of Russian military strategy. Yet PGM are clearly are, and the lack of them suggests there's a shortage.
Russia learned of the usefulness of drones in Syria and they have worked quite a lot on it. But mass production and prototypes are still ongoing.
Why are you so concerned with what Putin will do? He's finished. You might as well refer to him as a former president already. I'm not sure how long it will take but I can see the wheels turning already. If you know where to look for the signs, they're already there.
Putin is old and won't live forever. I suspect he will retire while still alive.
No leader in the modern history of Russia has humiliated and disgraced Russia as badly as Putin did and he managed to do it within four days.
Stalin did the same thing in the Winter War. So far this one is going a whole lot better than that one.
He should receive exactly the same treatment as Ceaușescu because he doesn't deserve to commit suicide.
I have thought the same thing about several US Presidents but they are still alive and fine.
I have never had any sort of killer instinct so I can't understand the rationale of these people sometimes.
A lot of what is said about the evils of Ceausescu is also bullshit. I still remember them showing videos of starving children on TV which were later proven to be bullshit. His problem was he got himself into deep loans to the West and he tried to repay them early. He severely squeezed the population to do this and got himself killed as a result.
1. NATO was nothing but an excuse (in this case), but it is a threat in his mind because it keeps him from potentially controlling other countries and regions. What Putin and the oligarchs are really afraid of is a powerful populace in a (mostly) democratic system. And that on his borders is a huge threat.
Bullshit. NATO is an existential threat for the Russian Federation and they proved this themselves.
1. They are not a defensive alliance.
2. They have funded terrorists, separatists, and subversive elements in Russia.
NATO warned that "terror attacks might happen in Russian soil" if Russia invaded Ukraine. But then said any Russian cyberattack on NATO would be considered a cause for war. Nice uh?
2. He definitely wants to maintain that and the billions it brings in. He also thought that the threat of losing access to gas would make Europe not confront him, especially with Germany's dumb energy moves.
Well he gave the Europeans a chance. I think he still expected them to be reasonable but he was wrong.
They had almost 8 years to convince the Ukrainians to accept Minsk 2.
3. From an influence and being feared perspective, yes
4. NATO prevents Russian control of countries as well. Countries that he wants under his sphere.
5. Yes
6. It has and will continue to do so.
Russia does not need leeches like the former Warsaw Pact countries. But yes they are interested in getting all Russians back into the Russian Federation or at least make them part of CSTO and the Eurasian Economic Union.
