Ukrainian War Developments

SampanViking said:

Well no precisely. This is part of the problem that makes the situation so incomprehensible!!??

Nobody has any obvious interest in talking up and over hyping the situation into a crisis that could easily assume a life of its own, despite nobody really wanting it.
It is unfathomable in many ways, why the US/UK are doing and saying the things they are, but the reality is that they are saying and doing these things. They are the only people doing and saying the very things most likely to result in the outcome which they say they do not want.

The only thing that really makes any sense to me, is the notion that the Maidan project has been a failure as it failed to take the Crimea from Russia and push Russia out of the Black Sea and the remaining Ukraine is an embarrassment and expense, with no remaining strategic value and they want rid of it, but in a way that does not repeat Afghanistan and where they can blame the Russians for it all.

As to why the Russians might possible be prepared to play along............

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No attack is coming this time and it seems like the tie has shifted. Russia has somehow got subdued and intimidated into standing down or atleast their media's resolve has been battered and imho Russia has been alpha'ed and realized the US is to savage and playing mind games the russians can't understand. Russia will pull back while their moral will take a blow but they will be back with revengence 2 decades from now and this will also becoming stragetic blow to China seeing Russia's resolve broken in eastern europe like that. The West will emerge looking really good and still as the sheriff in town.. This will become a temporary upset for the sino-russo alliance but not to worry they will re-emerge again and rebound but right now both are not ready and it has something to do with mental capacity they don't believe in themselves individually and with alot of self-doubt. The US is a matured alpha in mindset. They can intimidate both by using scare tactics and it works everytime and Russia is defending herself fiercerely that they don't want war? Then why the escalation in the first place? Russia has flinched and intimidated by Joe Biden and his war hawks.. As soon as NATO deployed to the eastern flank yesterday things really changed

Arnies said:

No attack is coming this time and it seems like the tie has shifted. Russia has somehow got subdued and intimidated into standing down or atleast their media's resolve has been battered and imho Russia has been alpha'ed and realized the US is to savage and playing mind games the russians can't understand. Russia will pull back while their moral will take a blow but they will be back with revengence 2 decades from now and this will also becoming stragetic blow to China seeing Russia's resolve broken in eastern europe like that. The West will emerge looking really good and still as the sheriff in town.. This will become a temporary upset for the sino-russo alliance but not to worry they will re-emerge again and rebound but right now both are not ready and it has something to do with mental capacity they don't believe in themselves individually and with alot of self-doubt. The US is a matured alpha in mindset. They can intimidate both by using scare tactics and it works everytime and Russia is defending herself fiercerely that they don't want war? Then why the escalation in the first place? Russia has flinched and intimidated by Joe Biden and his war hawks..

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Don't alphas burn out the quickest and die the soonest? There is a price to be paid for every bit of savagery. These two are the old alphas. China is not involved in any of it and would rather be by itself and free of the prolific and harmful western PR nonsense. China will not like to see a Russia falling to the western empire but Russia has quite a sizeable military force and several thousand nukes. If they go without a fight and don't end up killing the aggressor, China will be there with military support no doubt, the thing is that wouldn't even be necessary.

USA will not go into a fight against peer or even near peer adversaries. At most the US offers its Ukrainian puppet leadership and colour revolutionaries some moral support and being as sneaky devilish bastards as they are, they will transfer some non strategic military equipment to make the whole thing bloody.

To the Anglo empire, they are converting soft power and decades of West is best programming to sow discord and resentment between people and cultures that are almost the same, making mountains out of molehills and capitalising on the tensions and violence it has created in the first place. This is a fight happening well away from Anglo borders and they are thrilled to pitch previous allies against each other. This is what they do. Russia, if damaged, ought to bring the violence to the Anglos. Make them pay something for the trouble. Countries like Russia and China have just been too poor and too focused on its own progress to bring the fight to the culprits, despite having built up military means of at least mutually assured destruction.

ougoah said:

Don't alphas burn out the quickest and die the soonest? There is a price to be paid for every bit of savagery. These two are the old alphas. China is not involved in any of it and would rather be by itself and free of the prolific and harmful western PR nonsense. China will not like to see a Russia falling to the western empire but Russia has quite a sizeable military force and several thousand nukes. If they go without a fight and don't end up killing the aggressor, China will be there with military support no doubt, the thing is that wouldn't even be necessary.

USA will not go into a fight against peer or even near peer adversaries. At most the US offers its Ukrainian puppet leadership and colour revolutionaries some moral support and being as sneaky devilish bastards as they are, they will transfer some non strategic military equipment to make the whole thing bloody.

To the Anglo empire, they are converting soft power and decades of West is best programming to sow discord and resentment between people and cultures that are almost the same, making mountains out of molehills and capitalising on the tensions and violence it has created in the first place. This is a fight happening well away from Anglo borders and they are thrilled to pitch previous allies against each other. This is what they do. Russia, if damaged, ought to bring the violence to the Anglos. Make them pay something for the trouble. Countries like Russia and China have just been too poor and too focused on its own progress to bring the fight to the culprits, despite having built up military means of at least mutually assured destruction.

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The US won't need to go to war as Russia stands down while nothing was given to Russia. In regards to vacating east europe or deny membership to some including weapon deployment to Ukraine nothing was ceded to them including Ukraine. Russia will take a stragetic defeat here and they will pull back. Unfortunately I don't believe both countries have the mental fortitude just yet and it is not just about military but also believing in yourself which both lack.. Don't give respect where you don't have to nor back down from where you shouldn't

Arnies said:

The US won't need to go to war as Russia stands down while nothing was given to Russia. In regards to vacating east europe or deny membership to some including weapon deployment to Ukraine nothing was ceded to them including Ukraine. Russia will take a stragetic defeat here and they will pull back

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If Russia allows Ukraine to remain in limbo ground - not part of NATO and not under Russian influence like it was prior to 2014, then that isn't necessarily a Russian strategic defeat. Russia's still got the Nord Stream 2 win. It'll be bypassing Ukraine and Russia will be making lots of money from Europe. If it weren't for Germany and France being surprisingly neutral over all this and starting to express divergence from US/UK led European order, becoming more independent of Anglo policy in future is another win for Russia. If it weren't for the NS2 as well, then yeah I'd agree with you. This is US taking the war to Russia's front door.

However Russia invading is something I do not think they want to do unless pushed - overstepping Russian red lines and Ukraine becoming part of NATO or hosting American strategic weapons. The media is hyping all that up as it does and behaves exactly as we expect it to behave. We're not brainwashed western liberals or 70 IQ rednecks. MSM conservative or liberal are two sides of the same dirty coin.

Ukrainians are the victims even more so than Russia. Half duped and fooled by the glossiness and half too afraid to speak up for fear of public violence or at the very least, heavy social disapproval. Western brainwashing is its most powerful weapon (or so we might think sometimes).

Sevastopol is still signed over to Russia until the 2040s. As far as I'm aware, Donbass is held by Russians and Russian friendly Ukrainians. It's a weird one that isn't it. From one perspective Ukrainian sovereignty has been invaded by Russia. Zoom out a bit and you see what and why things have led to here.

There is no question of western meddling. None. This isn't truly a subjugated and mistreated peoples of Ukraine being bullied and enslaved by Russia. The revolutionaries are a reflection on how masterful the west is at aligning those dominoes and performing this sort of stuff everywhere their power and influence is being potentially threatened. Lebanon, Myanmar, Thailand, Ukraine, Hong Kong, Xinjiang, Tibet (long ago they've since sort of given up on that but talk about it every chance they get), Belarus, Kazakhstan, Syria, Turkey, Venezuela. All these in ten years. NEDdy hard at work doing what it does best, creating division, unrest, violence, meddling, inciting and recruiting unstable folks and arming them.

Warmongers have brought us to the brink in Ukraine​

The neocons/warmongers have spent years stoking the new cold war with Russia and have now brought us to the brink in Ukraine—this serves their own interests, and lines the pocket of the Military Industrial Complex with trillion$. Let’s not be sheep. - Tulsi Gabbard

ougoah said:

If Russia allows Ukraine to remain in limbo ground - not part of NATO and not under Russian influence like it was prior to 2014, then that isn't necessarily a Russian strategic defeat. Russia's still got the Nord Stream 2 win. It'll be bypassing Ukraine and Russia will be making lots of money from Europe. If it weren't for Germany and France being surprisingly neutral over all this and starting to express divergence from US/UK led European order, becoming more independent of Anglo policy in future is another win for Russia. If it weren't for the NS2 as well, then yeah I'd agree with you. This is US taking the war to Russia's front door.

However Russia invading is something I do not think they want to do unless pushed - overstepping Russian red lines and Ukraine becoming part of NATO or hosting American strategic weapons. The media is hyping all that up as it does and behaves exactly as we expect it to behave. We're not brainwashed western liberals or 70 IQ rednecks. MSM conservative or liberal are two sides of the same dirty coin.

Ukrainians are the victims even more so than Russia. Half duped and fooled by the glossiness and half too afraid to speak up for fear of public violence or at the very least, heavy social disapproval. Western brainwashing is its most powerful weapon (or so we might think sometimes).

Sevastopol is still signed over to Russia until the 2040s. As far as I'm aware, Donbass is held by Russians and Russian friendly Ukrainians. It's a weird one that isn't it. From one perspective Ukrainian sovereignty has been invaded by Russia. Zoom out a bit and you see what and why things have led to here.

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Russia will not do anything if Ukraine even joins NATO and after all this saga Ukraine will not be neutral but a foe equally as bad as NATO that is fuelled by survival making them a motivated foe that will grow stronger much faster with time hence they are getting nothing out of this the russians.. Tulsi Gabbard is cringeworthy bro and i am not even pro-American. She doesn't represent American geopolitical interests and she got laughably absolute zero votes and she is an alien in US politics and insignificiant.. It is a Country run by war hawks and chauvinists not apologists like Tulsi

Arnies said:

Russia will not do anything if Ukraine even joins NATO and after all this saga Ukraine will not be neutral but a foe equally as bad as NATO that is fuelled by survival making them a motivated foe that will grow stronger much faster with time hence they are getting nothing out of this the russians.. Tulsi Gabbard is cringeworthy bro and i am not even pro-American. She doesn't represent American geopolitical interests and she got laughably absolute zero votes and she is an alien in US politics and insignificiant.. It is a Country run by war hawks and chauvinists not apologists like Tulsi

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Don't know Tulsi Gabbard though seems like she might be another populist full of shit when and where it actually really matters, an ubiquitous specimen in the west. Mindless drone and predictable everything.

As for Ukraine joining NATO, well that is the red line as expressed clearly enough. Russia surely would recalculate if it came to that and we'll see how they tread. As for now, Russians don't want war and benefit little to nothing from having one. It is the west beating the war drums and pushing forwards first with Maidan protest movement. I mean they're not even close to this conflict and it is a surround and provoke Russia via proxy while turning a previously close nation into an active enemy of Russia. This isn't good for Ukrainian folks. They are in the crossfire and being exploited by the elites in London and Washington. Same old shit different day from the usual suspects.

Arnies said:

No attack is coming this time and it seems like the tie has shifted. Russia has somehow got subdued and intimidated into standing down or atleast their media's resolve has been battered and imho Russia has been alpha'ed and realized the US is to savage and playing mind games the russians can't understand. Russia will pull back while their moral will take a blow but they will be back with revengence 2 decades from now and this will also becoming stragetic blow to China seeing Russia's resolve broken in eastern europe like that. The West will emerge looking really good and still as the sheriff in town.. This will become a temporary upset for the sino-russo alliance but not to worry they will re-emerge again and rebound but right now both are not ready and it has something to do with mental capacity they don't believe in themselves individually and with alot of self-doubt. The US is a matured alpha in mindset. They can intimidate both by using scare tactics and it works everytime and Russia is defending herself fiercerely that they don't want war? Then why the escalation in the first place? Russia has flinched and intimidated by Joe Biden and his war hawks.. As soon as NATO deployed to the eastern flank yesterday things really changed

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No offense dude, but you sound bipolar. Only yesterday you were ranting about how the Russians were going to dominate Europe.

All of this invasion nonsense is just domestic propaganda from the West. Russia's position hasn't changed one iota.

plawolf said:

Isn’t there an old saying about not ascribing to malice that which can be explained by incompetence?

I don’t think either side went into this with a master plan, and I agree that I don’t think anyone wants an actual war. Nor are the Americans scheming to backstab the Ukrainians by ‘tricking’ the Russians into invading.

The Americans just want to focus all their might in Asia against China and don’t want any distractions in Europe. Putin knows this and just joyously stirring the pot as hard as he can to make Ukraine and NATO beg for American troops so America can undermine NATO in ways Russia never could even dream of doing by refusing. Massively increasing gas prices is a nice little bonus for Putin that no doubt sweetens the deal.

As for why the UK/US is making so much noise. Well I think Roosevelt’s ‘speak softly and carry a big stick’ policy neatly applies. They are squealing so loudly because they don’t have a big stick and are trying classic intimidation tactics to try to cover for their lack of actual hard power military options with trash talk.

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If they don't, they have a very funny way of showing it.
I think the country has a large "If you break it you have bought it" sign on the door!

One thing is certain and that all the talk from the US/UK is making the Ukrainian economy tank!
Nobody wants to invest in a place being described at the next big war zone
Those that have seem to be looking to get their money out.
Gas reserves are running out
Government borrowing costs are going through the roof
Interest rates are now in double digits and inflation likely to follow suit if not there already
Given that prolonged uncertainty can easily become outright fear and a very weak position can escalate rapidly if enough hysteria is unleashed into the situation.

The prospect of a total Ukrainian collapse is not impossible and those that claim to be responsible for its welfare would be the ones expected to dig deep into their pockets to put Humpty back together again.

It would lead to an almost comical/farcical situation where one side is desperate to get out and equally desperate to entangle another party which is quite determined not to be dragged in.

So what could happen if the Ukraine does go economically belly up?
I think the answer is quite predictable, all the pieces are already in place post the Maidan project and in the event of Chaos such pieces (forces) would have free reign to pursue their own agenda. This makes the prospect of renewed and further uprising in most Russian speaking areas of the East and South, an event that would undoubtedly compel the Russians to move in and try and restore order, in at the very least, those particular areas.

SampanViking said:

If they don't, they have a very funny way of showing it.
I think the country has a large "If you break it you have bought it" sign on the door!

One thing is certain and that all the talk from the US/UK is making the Ukrainian economy tank!

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I think the beltway term for this is ‘collateral damage’ and ‘acceptable cost’.

What’s a little economic collapse in Ukraine if it helps safeguard Washington’s interests? ‘We appreciate your sacrifice’ is the most the Ukrainians can expect I would say.

SampanViking said:

Nobody wants to invest in a place being described at the next big war zone
Those that have seem to be looking to get their money out.
Gas reserves are running out
Government borrowing costs are going through the roof
Interest rates are now in double digits and inflation likely to follow suit if not there already
Given that prolonged uncertainty can easily become outright fear and a very weak position can escalate rapidly if enough hysteria is unleashed into the situation.

The prospect of a total Ukrainian collapse is not impossible and those that claim to be responsible for its welfare would be the ones expected to dig deep into their pockets to put Humpty back together again.

It would lead to an almost comical/farcical situation where one side is desperate to get out and equally desperate to entangle another party which is quite determined not to be dragged in.

So what could happen if the Ukraine does go economically belly up?
I think the answer is quite predictable, all the pieces are already in place post the Maidan project and in the event of Chaos such pieces (forces) would have free reign to pursue their own agenda. This makes the prospect of renewed and further uprising in most Russian speaking areas of the East and South, an event that would undoubtedly compel the Russians to move in and try and restore order, in at the very least, those particular areas.

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Way does Russia need to step in? They have a library of perfect textbook examples in terms of how to manage the collapse and balkanisation of Ukraine, from the USSR to Yugoslavia. I am sure Putin would relish the prospect of giving NATO and the US a taste of their own medicine.