solarz
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I mean is there a formal process happening or is it salami slicing from the US?
Ukrainian War Developments
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I mean is there a formal process happening or is it salami slicing from the US?
In 2008, NATO promised full membership to Ukraine and Georgia, but did not specify how or when it will occur. Putin is pissed since then, and even more angry post-2014 Ukraine Revolution...which led to Crimea being annexed as retaliation. Now Ukraine is likely pressing for full membership again (why not, I would do the same in their position, get nukes as well) so US is probably testing the waters and salami slicing to see how far it can get away, by significantly arming Ukraine with tons of weapons to counterbalance Russian forces in Ukraine.
John Bolton, architect of Iraq wars, suggest rotating NATO troops through Ukraine to deter Russian invasion. So it's definitely US trying to push the boundaries and seeing what they can get away with, while pretending to be diplomatic and genuine.
Sucks for Ukraine though, their position is like Joseon Korea stuck between Qing overlords and Imperial Japan. They are fucked and end up annexed by Russia or like modern Korea (divided buffer zone between the great powers)
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My prediction is Ukraine will end up like modern Korea, a divided buffer zone between two great superpower camps, with the western Ukraine as an independent pro-West state (armed to the teeth with NATO weapons to ensure independence) and eastern Ukraine a defacto independent state occupied by pro-Russian separtists and Russian troops.
This is what stalemate in the battle of "Sphere of Influence" looks like, not unlike modern Korea which is essentially a permanently divided buffer zone.
This is what stalemate in the battle of "Sphere of Influence" looks like, not unlike modern Korea which is essentially a permanently divided buffer zone.
@solarz Sir Obama initiated a Colored Revolution, right after the Sochi Olympics as the Russian was blindsided. In respond Putin invade Crimea ops sorry wrong choice of words SECURE Sevastopol and support the insurrection in the Donbass region. The Neocons want the whole Ukraine cause the eastern part (Donbass) is rich in coal, gas and other minerals, and also IF Crimea is retaken, Russia can be balkanized. As you can see there is a parallel event with regards to 2008 Olympics and the Georgian conflict, 2014 Sochi winter Olympics and the Maidan revolution in Ukraine and finally next year with Beijing winter Olympics either a crisis in Taiwan or Ukraine. It had a pattern and I think Putin and Xi is preparing and coordinating their effort for an eventuality.
Sir what the Neocon want is to destroy the Russian Orthodox Church (Family value oriented) and put in place a Yeltsin type figure as President. They want to exploit its people and extract its rich resources. Putin is a hindrance thus the demonization, by sanctioning Russia they want the masses to suffer and initiated an uprising just like what happen in Ukraine. BUT as you studied the Russian history however poor or ill equipped they will fight back and fight back hard. That is what the symbol of the Russian bear is all about a fierce fighter when angered.
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@Phead128 bro Ukraine is Russian, it is part of Kievan Rus empire of old, the originator of the Slavic race and share the same religion, the Eastern Orthodox Church. Whatever problem they have like Taiwan it will eventuality reunite with their brethren.
For putin the best end state would be control of Ukraine east of Dnipro. Though I don't see Putin making a move until Nord Stream 2 has been operational for some time to get Europe hooked on cheap(er) gas.
Now that Belarus has fallen into Russia's orbit, Ukraine east of Dnipro is also vulnerable from 3 sides. from the east there are rebel forces, on the south there are long coastlines on which Russia could land, and from the north Russia could easily hit Kyiv by transiting through Belarus. There are only a few bridges over the Dnipro, they could conceivably destroyed early in a conflict to sever lines of communications between eastern and western Ukraine. Ukrainian forces would not be a push over but surrounded from all sides can't imagine them being able to do much.
Now that Belarus has fallen into Russia's orbit, Ukraine east of Dnipro is also vulnerable from 3 sides. from the east there are rebel forces, on the south there are long coastlines on which Russia could land, and from the north Russia could easily hit Kyiv by transiting through Belarus. There are only a few bridges over the Dnipro, they could conceivably destroyed early in a conflict to sever lines of communications between eastern and western Ukraine. Ukrainian forces would not be a push over but surrounded from all sides can't imagine them being able to do much.
This is why every nation should have nuclear weapons.
and why Ukraine should have never given up it's nuclear weapons under thes signed by Russia/US/UK that promised to uphold Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity in exchange for Ukraine giving up nuclear weapons (we now see how Russian promises are cheap and worthless).
That's like Chinese nationalists invoking Gija GoJoseon and Wiman Joseon to claim originator of Korean state and civilization.
Or Chinese invoking Zhao Tuo to claim originator of Vietnamese state and civilization.
Or Chinese invoking Xu Fu to claim originator of Japanese Yayoi civilization.
Just because there is some narrow civilizational affiliations doesn't mean you can claim territorial irredentism and wholesale annexation of another nation. What is stopping Korea from invoking Goguryeo to reclaim Gando/Manchuria? What is stopping Mongolia from invoking irredentism on Inner Mongolia? Or China reclaiming Outer Manchuria and Trans-Amur Baikal from illegal Russian annexation?
Kievan Rus is over 1000 years ago man.... and Russian Federation recognized Ukrainian Independence after collapse of Soviet Union in 1989.
How can you compare Ukraine (a sovereign independent nation post-USSR collapse, a status recognized by entire world community and Russia itself) with Taiwan (a rump-state with ZERO international recognition, nobody recognizes it, and part of unresolved Chinese civil war)?
those are not remotely comparable.
They might wish it from their bottom of their hearts, but it aint gonna happen. One of the main reasons being that a requirement is not having any pending conflicts with anyone.
Then there is the whole thing were a lot of the NATO members, particularly in Western Europe, might talk a lot about support but they don't really want Ukraine to be member of anything.
Not unlike the whole Turkey-EU debacle.
I agree. but why would you use Russian propaganda words "SECURE Sevastopol" to describe annexation of Crimea. That's like Americans using "Operation IRAQI FREEDOM" as operational name in their illegal invasion of Iraq, or Han Dynasty using "PACIFICATION of the Eastern Barbarians" to describe the Han commanderies in Joseon Korea. Give us a break of the Russian propaganda man.
You can also argue that Russians want the eastern part (Donbass) because it's majority Russian-speaking or Russian ethnic population. That's a more realistic reason why Russia is support pro-Russian separatists and fomenting an insurrection with Russian troops on the ground.
Didn't know Russia is so fragile like a tinpot African dictatorship. That's like Chinese nationalists saying that if Taiwan isn't retaken, then China will be balkanized by West! Okay... talk about exaggeration.
The Russian invasion of Georgia occurred only 4 months after NATO offered full membership to Georgia (and Ukraine). It's all related to Russian aggression to intimidate former Soviet states to not enter into military alliance with the West.
Xi can coordinate by first recognizing Crimea as part of Russian Federation..... but Xi isn't that stupid.
China foreign minister refuses to recognize Crimea as part of Russian Federation, and Chinese gov't refuses to recognized the Crimean Referendum vote to join Russia. Chinese isn't that stupid, they see what Russia is doing , which it did with Outer Manchuria and Outer Mongolia.
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