Ukrainian War Developments

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enroger

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Zichan said:
Interesting confession? from retired Maj. General James "Spider" Marks that E/A-18G Growlers may be used to suppress Russian air defense forces to support Ukrainian operations. Wouldn't electronic attack qualify as hostile action and a major escalation?
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He's basically suggesting a gamble; if the Russians suck it up then it is a win for NATO, if not.... welcome to WW3
 
Coalescence

Coalescence

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enroger said:
He's basically suggesting a gamble; if the Russians suck it up then it is a win for NATO, if not.... welcome to WW3
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I don't think it'll escalate to that, all Russia has to do is announce that the growler is a legitimate target because its harming their troop's survivability and shoot it down if they don't back off.

I recall they blasted a training base for foreign legions on the Polish side of the border, while announcing its a legitimate target. The US/NATO side didn't escalate so there's a good chance to call their bluff.
 
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enroger

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Coalescence said:
I don't think it'll escalate to that, all Russia has to do is announce that the growler is a legitimate target because its harming their troop's survivability and shoot it down if they don't back off.

I recall they blasted a training base for foreign legions on the Polish side of the border, while announcing its a legitimate target. The US/NATO side didn't escalate so there's a good chance to call their bluff.
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Yeah I skipped a few rung in the escalation ladder but something like this can easily lead to full confrontation...

I recall that base was in Ukraine, just very close to Poland border?
 
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Abominable

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Zichan said:
Interesting confession? from retired Maj. General James "Spider" Marks that E/A-18G Growlers may be used to suppress Russian air defense forces to support Ukrainian operations. Wouldn't electronic attack qualify as hostile action and a major escalation?
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He's just throwing out ideas. He's a retired general so can say whatever he wants.

I'm not sure how useful suppressing air defences would be at this point, Ukraine doesn't have much of an air force. I'm sure they are capable of a few sorties (another Ukr Su-27 was shot down yesterday), but the battle for air has already been lost.

If it did pose a problem, it would come back to the same question. Does America want to get involved in a war with Russia? Each time that's come up the answer been no so far.
 
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FADH1791

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Bill Blazo said:
The weather forecast for Eastern Ukraine shows that at least a full week of rain is coming up. This makes it more likely that the Russians will delay their upcoming offensive until late April at the very least, assuming that this time they actually want to spread out and advance across a front, instead of just driving down well-paved roads where they're easier to attack and ambush. The offensive could also start in early May. By then, the Russians will be in full control of Mariupol and the Donbas reinforcements will be well-rested and prepared for the coming fight. The best idea is definitely for the Russians to wait until at least April 20th before starting anything, just to have some time to consolidate and fully prepare. This new phase of the war should be more advantageous for them. The terrain in Eastern Ukraine is wide open, Russia will face fewer logistical issues, and the Ukrainians will have fewer places to hide, because none of the contested cities in the east are anywhere near as large as Kyiv. It's going to be an interesting month.
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Indeed. The Russians have stated the Donbass offensive will begin once Mauripol is fully secured. We have to remember the Russians have 40,000 fighters tied down in Mauripol. So once the city is fully stabilized the bulk of them will be sent to the Donbas front to rest, rearm and re-orient for the upcoming battle. This can explain why the Russians are in no rush in Mauripol. So I agree with the sentiment that Russia will start the offensive in May. Also the spring time muds will end in May.
 
plawolf

plawolf

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Coalescence said:
I don't think it'll escalate to that, all Russia has to do is announce that the growler is a legitimate target because its harming their troop's survivability and shoot it down if they don't back off.

I recall they blasted a training base for foreign legions on the Polish side of the border, while announcing its a legitimate target. The US/NATO side didn't escalate so there's a good chance to call their bluff.
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The training base was on the Ukrainian side of the boarder.

It’s a pretty stupid idea to be honest. Even if the Russians don’t shoot the growlers down, by using active EW first, NATO would be opening itself up to the Russians also employing active EW against them.

Say goodbye to 24/7 AWACS support for the Ukrainian military.

Also, military grade EW will absolute wreck havoc on civilian infrastructure and devices on the NATO side of the boarder (Ukrainian side as well, but don’t think the Russians will be particularly put out by that).

You might find that those countries currently most rabidly anti-Russian and supportive of NATO mission creep in Ukraine suddenly start to have a massive change of heart once they start getting sent back to the digital Stone Age when EW start obliterating their telecoms and other electronic infrastructure.
 
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Atomicfrog

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Zichan said:
Interesting confession? from retired Maj. General James "Spider" Marks that E/A-18G Growlers may be used to suppress Russian air defense forces to support Ukrainian operations. Wouldn't electronic attack qualify as hostile action and a major escalation?
Click to expand...
They are probably doing it already with all the electronic warfare birds around the border.
 
Coalescence

Coalescence

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plawolf said:
The training base was on the Ukrainian side of the boarder.

It’s a pretty stupid idea to be honest. Even if the Russians don’t shoot the growlers down, by using active EW first, NATO would be opening itself up to the Russians also employing active EW against them.

Say goodbye to 24/7 AWACS support for the Ukrainian military.

Also, military grade EW will absolute wreck havoc on civilian infrastructure and devices on the NATO side of the boarder (Ukrainian side as well, but don’t think the Russians will be particularly put out by that).

You might find that those countries currently most rabidly anti-Russian and supportive of NATO mission creep in Ukraine suddenly start to have a massive change of heart once they start getting sent back to the digital Stone Age when EW start obliterating their telecoms and other electronic infrastructure.
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Oh, I guess its just really close to the Polish border, I recall the pro-Russian twitter users were celebrating this as some sort escalation against NATO, I guess I fell for the hype.

So aside from causing damage to civilian infrastructure with EW, how much advantage would Russia get by knocking down their AWACS? Would Ukraine be going blind when that happens?
 
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Overbom

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Ace Maverick said:
Great points, I would counter though that NATO has spent the last 60 years formulating a strategy to take out the old traditional system that the Russians have had for so many years so perhaps reforms were needed.

Even historically, armies needed NCOs to allow unit cohesion, who knows what other lessons this war might reveal.
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NCOs are integral to any proper fighting force. That Russia still doesn't have NCOs after they did the military reforms signifies that the rot is running deep in the Russian Military.
 
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