Ukrainian War Developments

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asif iqbal

Lieutenant General
Thats the thing Asif, I dont think it was a big missile at all. The initial fire was quite small and just a fire, the big explosion was ammunition cooking off from the fire, not the result of a missile impact.

Too small for a guided Ballistic missile
Unlikely to be a MLRS as there were no multiple impacts or explosions and it would be too lucky shot for just one unguided rocket
If it was Ukrainian special forces or local saboteurs, would a hand held weapon be big enough to start a fire that could not be put out?
Well maybe

I think most people here suspect it was mishandled ammunition, but I am definitely open to convincing arguments or evidence.

I think it was quite a big hit and not a internal explosion as it wasn't carrying ammunition

a day earlier RT news showed off the LST unloading BTR-80 marked with "Z" and it was aired along with details of its exact location

could that video have been used to target the ship? after all the Ukrainians have proved to be experts in targeting Russian assets using co-ordinates fed to them

the LST is in flames and nearby fuel depo also

also a near by ship caught fire while 2 other LST sailed off

 

Mohsin77

Senior Member
Registered Member
Progression so far:

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Current sitrep, according to a pro-UKR source:

Image


How tenable is this position for UKR?

The primary ground lines of communication to the Eastern Formations coming from the West stop at the river. After that point, the supply line would become sporadic. Bridges are easy targets and the RuAF would be running interdiction. Seems like Russia was planning on keeping those Eastern formations pinned down, while they went for objectives all around them.

We see a lot of Green formations on this map, in the East and around Kiev, but how combat effective are they? We don't have the damage assessment reports to actually measure this. How effective were Russian mass-fires, especially the MLRS barrages? How effective have Russia's gunships been at reducing those formations? And the effect of RuAF ground attacks etc. etc.? All of these are still open questions that we probably won't know the answers to until proper analysis comes out on open-sources after the conflict is over.

Zelinski is again hinting that he is willing to accept Russian demands. This might be because those UKR units are not very combat effective at this point and/or their supply is critically low. In which case, his only alternative is to go full-guerilla-mode, but if they do that, it's gonna be Mariupol-level destruction everywhere.

The weather over Ukraine this week is bad. So probably no major movements this week. More time for negotiations.
 

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member

This map is later than Russians with Attitude's maps. If they are to be believe it means after taking the Azov base Chechen Rosgvardiya have also then proceeded to take a big bite out of Azovstal, and further according to them the other half of Azov Battalion cut by the lost of the base towards North-East have been eliminated.

Here's another take:

This map agrees with everyone else that Azov base is taken. They too think Chechen are advancing into Azovstal. However according to them the North-East half of Azov Battalion is still holding out. This map however says unlike all the other maps Ukrainian 56th Motorized Brigade no longer control the thin strip of coast to the city's west and have been pushed back into the city.

We know Russian 810th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade is duking it out with Ukrainian 36th Naval Infantry Brigade in the city's north, that's where that photo of the naval mine placed in the middle of the street came from today. It's unclear what strength 36th Naval Infantry Brigade is at since well remember this:
 
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