Ukrainian War Developments

Status
Not open for further replies.

SanWenYu

Captain
Registered Member
The bloodshedding and killing in Ukraine are being taken advantage by some to promote their own agenda.

On March 8, the social media handle @visegrád24 posted three photos of Emmanuel Macron in Elysee, showing how worried and frustrated the French President is after he finished talking with Putin on phone. [ By the way, who are behind @visegrád24? ]

1.png

Except that, the photographer have already uploaded his photos to his account at Instgram and described the context where photos were taken.

According to the photographer's own words and upload timestamps, the first photo was taken on Feb 9 taken after Macron finshed a long meeting with his ministers.

The second was taken on Feb 18 when Macron was having an international phone call. The photographer didn't specify whom Macron was talking to. Though it's likely that he was in a NATO conference call with other member state leaders, as the NATO official record shows on its web site.

The third was taken on Mar 4 and has nothing to do with "phone call with Putin", either. Macron had a phone call with UK's BoJo before taking the photo on that day.

6.jpg

Even so, in another tweet on Mar 9 to make "correction", @visegrád24 still insists that all the photos were taken on Feb 18 after Macron had a phone call with Putin.

2.png

The Internet users did not let go the chance for memes:

3.png5.png4.jpg

The story recounted by Guancha (in Chinese):
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


If you read Chinese, do not miss the comments. Some Chinese netizens are brutal making fun of Macron.
 

LawLeadsToPeace

Senior Member
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Registered Member
That may be a reason for why the US government may want to ignore it, but not all news stations and reporters. Unless you believe that they're all controlled by the government? It's not like it's an unrelated matter, it is the main reason Russia uses to justify it's invasion.

I wonder what the plan is going to be when Russia takes more cities and starts pulling down statues of nazi collaborators? Are they going to pretend it's not happening?
Based on what I have seen, the number of acts of accidentally broadcasting or even praising neo Nazis will be extremely minimal due to their fear of outrage from the public. This outrage has happened before for “lesser” issues. I remember how several reporters gave their take on how this war is “different” from the ones in the Middle East and Africa in the beginning of this war. That caused people to get pissed, and they voiced their anger on social media. Those reporters then apologized and retracted their statements. Aside from that, we have seen how certain Twitter accounts from big organizations quickly deleted their tweets containing praises of pictures of Azov Regiment soldiers wearing their Nazi-related patches. In short, the media outlets are extremely cautious on what they post and report. They won’t be as careless as they were in the beginning.
 

Helius

Senior Member
Registered Member
"They are beautiful and resilient". Canada's CTV news network promoted Ukrainian neonazi in celebrating the Women's day.

On March 8, CTV broadcast video of Ukrainian female soldiers wearing "Schwarze Sonne".

The image and web page recorded by the WayBack Machine archive:

View attachment 85036

View attachment 85042
The tag line "Why you can trust CTV News" is such a laugh in the face of their audience by these journalists liars. Their "Editoral standards and policies" must be a joke.

Screenshot of the video captured by Internet users:

View attachment 85038

Ukraine's ministry of foreign affairs immediately picked up this trash and used it in its own propaganda:

View attachment 85043

On March 10, CTV posted this tweet. A nazi symbol is merely "offensive"? Even more disgusting is the 902 likes:

View attachment 85039

Investigation by Guancha (in Chinese):
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Video about neo-Nazi is only viewable with an Axis ID... go figure.
1.jpg
 

LawLeadsToPeace

Senior Member
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Registered Member
View attachment 85054

The propaganda is full steam Ahead. Now it seems that a Tu154 is capable of transporting thousands of Sirian Fighters. (?)
A TU154 can only carry up to 180 people according to
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, not thousands. As for the news itself, until I see foreign mercs on the ground, I would just treat it as propaganda.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
All fair points and thanks for being thoughtful.

Like you said, the Moscow of 1812 was different from the one in 1941, so why draw on Clausewitz's outdated authority when we're discussing a war in 2022? And like you also said, the capture of Moscow and Leningrad as a key war objective for the Germans was based on the assumption of a Soviet defeat if the capital was taken, but wasn't this assumption proven to be heavily flawed in the first place?

Although Stalin was prepared to defend Moscow and did not personally leave, he had already ordered the evacuation of command staff and civil departments to Kuybyshev in October 1941. This was already done when the Germans had just encountered the strengthened defense line 120 km west of Moscow, and long before their advance to the outskirts of Moscow in December. The relocation indicated that Stalin was in any case prepared to move core functions (the "nervous system") of the Soviet state and military away from Moscow for a protracted war, regardless of the timing of the German offensive.

And immediately after the advance on Moscow was stalled, the Germans learned that the Russians had an immense capacity to counterattack, with reinforcements of over a million men flooding in from the east, divisions that had been called up long before the Germans reached Moscow. Like Napoleon, the German command made the mistake of underestimating the Russian (Soviet) ability to rebound from a disadvantageous situation. And like Napoleon, by the time the Germans realized this, they had already been put on the back foot, with a deep winter setting in, and fuel and supplies quickly running dry. Even a quick glance at Wikipedia will tell you:



By early 1942, Hitler realized that the only way of sustaining the war machine was to control the Caucasus, hence Fall Blau. Hitler himself did not "lose interest" in attempting another push for Moscow - his reasoning was that the Causasus was his only hope for getting the oil that Germany badly needed for sustaining any major offensive beyond 1942, assuming the Wehrmacht could even hold against the Soviet counteroffensive. Hitler would have come to the same realization about Germany's oil situation even if Moscow had fallen in August 1941.

The key point here is, there was no evidence that the Soviets would be critically disorganized, or capitulate, or run out of manpower or equipment, even if they had lost Moscow in August 1941. As long as they had the manpower of the motherland and the industry of the Urals, the Soviets were set for the long-term. On the other hand, the Germans only had one reckless gamble, to hopefully paralyse the Soviet war effort by capturing Moscow.

In reality, over eight weeks before the Germans arrived, Stalin had already arranged to draw in huge reinforcements (troop reserves that the Germans never even expected to exist), evacuate government bureaus, and relocate his command and communication lines. By invading the Soviet Union, the Germans had already signed up for the long haul from the beginning, even if Guderian or other generals had not realized such.

Last note to pull back on topic before I get handed a one-month sentence - It's difficult to compare the Clausewitzian or Oberkommando gamble of "prioritize the enemy capital" with the situation we see on the ground in Ukraine. The Ukrainian war effort is already disorganized and largely decentralized, with major cities such as Odessa, Kharkov, and Mariupol left to fend for themselves. Taking Kiev would be a symbolic victory, but I fear that it would not give the Russians an easier time on the other hotspots.

If anything, a separatist breakthrough of Ukranian lines south of Kharkov would be infinitely more valuable for turning the war firmly in Russia's favour, by enabling the 58th CAA, 6th CAA, and the separatist forces to join up and consolidate the eastern front. Strategically speaking, throwing units into the urban meatgrinder of Kiev would just be a gamble for a favorable political outcome, like the French gamble on Moscow in 1812, or the German gamble on Moscow in 1941.

Quoting Clausewitz again (On War):



If there is a significant army to be destroyed, then it should first be destroyed. The Ukranian armed forces are near-peer for the Russians, and the Russians are strategically correct to maintain maximum pressure on the veteran Ukranian troops in the east. In a fractured country like Ukraine where there is no visible "centre of gravity" militarily or politically, the capture of Kiev would still be significant, but definitely not the be-all and end-all solution that you originally proposed it would be.

Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts.
@Higgle bro excellent analysis, I'm also a military history addict. :cool: What I can add is that the road to Moscow is littered with uncertainty, aside the problem of Logistic, it had the advantage of space and manufacture prowess beyond the Ural mountain. That landmass is crucial cause unlike Julius Caesar of antiquity where he can live of the land, the vastness of Russia is one of the pillar of Russian defense , aside from the gritness of its people and the weather.

And please correct if I'm wrong, like the Wehrmacht before, the US today is strained with multiple obligation. SHe is trying to maintain her dominance on the cheap with Proxy and Hybrid War, thus the miscalculation. there is a saying by Alexander Mercouris "Don't march to Moscow and Don't Bluff Beijing" For the Russian losing Ukraine is a short cut to Moscow.
 

Richard Santos

Captain
Registered Member
According to Clausewitz the hostile capital is always the primary target for the invader. Never geht distracted by other objectives, try to conquer the capital. The Germans did it wrong in August / September 1941 and took Kiev and the industrial heart of the Ukraine. The attack on Moscow delayed this battle to 1941.09.30. Too late to take Moscow.

The Russians follow the recommendations of Clausewitz and surround Kiev.

Clausewitz never said the hostile capital is always the prime target. He only said winning great battle and occupying the enemy’s capitals are equal for purpose of winning public opinion.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top