They are not taking a defensive position, they are getting ready to attack. Geez... Everything is from bizzaroooo world nowadays..
Ukrainian War Developments
- Thread starter james smith esq
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They are not taking a defensive position, they are getting ready to attack. Geez... Everything is from bizzaroooo world nowadays..
I think having yet another East/West or North/South divide will just result in yet another hotbed for conflicts and tensions.
If Putin is going all in anyway, it's better for Russia to take the whole of Ukraine, reconstitute it into a democratic federated republic i.e. a Federal Republic of Ukraine that is similar to the German model BUT with a greater division of powers within the federal government, and greater autonomy and delegation of powers to all 24 of the individual oblasts (states).
This would ensure a highly bureaucratic and inefficient system of government, which in turn would be easier for Russia to influence/undermine/manipulate as opposed to a unitary central authority Ukraine currently has, that Putin is now forced to deal with.
It would also allow Donetsk and Luhansk to nominally remain part of Ukraine but as autonomous republics i.e. the Autonomous Donbass Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk with their own government bodies, parliaments, armed/defence/police forces so that for all intents and purposes they would be self-ruled, and whose autonomy would be enshrined by treaty/constitution.
The benefit to all this of course is that Russia gets what she wants, Ukraine as a whole still gets to maintain some semblance of democracy, sovereignty and national integrity that would shut the Europeans and Americans up. And when all is said and done, the only thing they get to moan about would be Crimea, but since it has long since been annexed it's already a fait accompli.
The lazing drones and Krasnopol laser guided artillery rounds are hammering Ukrainian positions. Zala drones are near impossible to detect and artillery rounds are too fast to dodge.
The daily update from the team from Guancha had a very good analysis of this encounter:
- This video was released by Azov Battalion
- Yes, this was a successful ambush by Ukrainian, and assuming their goal was to prevent Russians from further advancement they achieve it for the time being
- however, if you watch carefully, in the end out of the entire convey the only Russian loses were two tanks
- Ukrainian artillery accuracy was quite good, as evident by the fact that all shells were on top of the convey. Judging from the impact they are using 122mm artillery, against MBTs you kind of need direct hits to disable the tanks, nearby splashes won't do it
- also critically important: the density of artillery fire was extremely low that the video had to be edited together to make it seem more intense than it was. Just how sparse was the artillery fire? Russian crews were getting out of their vehicles and trying to affect repair even while the shelling was still going on!
- from this it can be estimated that only 2-3 guns from the Ukrainian side were involved in this, had they had more guns at their disposal that whole unit could have been wiped out as it was textbook sitting target
- thus we can figure out from this video that Ukrainian fire power have been degraded to such a level that they are unable to punish the Russians for making such big mistakes. Conversely Russians are able to shrug off such ambushes now because they've degraded Ukrainian's ability to respond to such a high degree
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I was about to answer the same thing. Judging from his bio he is from the Caribbean...perhaps Jamaican weed?
Exactly... they were sitting ducks and somehow managed to shrug it off and walk away in a single-file formation. Not even a rush to leave...
Not even sure that the vehicule was destroyed... maybe only the driver got busted with open hatch or jumped in another to get out of that situation. But it was a good pinpoint strike. With some proximity fused frag artillery rounds they could have killed a lot of crew in that strike.
It's a 'Tis but a scratch' moment. I remember some PLA planners were reprimanded for outdated armored column spearhead tactics in ZuReHe exercise, sustaining unnecessary casualties. Commenting that the habit of storming enemy front and erecting red banner/flag is a thing of the past and have no place in modern conflict.
I see little evidence of this. If the Russians thought a quick victory in Ukraine was within reach they would have gone straight for a decapitation attack. Just like the Soviets did in Afghanistan with Operation Storm-333. They would have just moved straight into the capital from multiple directions and ignored the rest of the country. But they did not. The Russians moved in large fronts from basically all directions. They might have expected less resistance given the military performance of Ukraine in 2014. But is it really the case that they did? It would have been foolhardy to expect the current Ukrainian regime to not have hardened itself after 8 years in power and a permanent conflict in Donbass to sharpen its teeth I think. I doubt they had those kinds of preconceptions. On an operational level the Russians seem to be doing this quite methodically. So I doubt the Russian government came into this with any expectations of a quick and easy conflict.
Did you know you can control a country as long as you have 10% of the population on your side? If you put Donbass and Crimea together it is over 10% of the population of Ukraine.
Yeah this is what will most likely happen. Putin does not care. Since the US had been continuously ratcheting up sanctions on Russia for years regardless of whatever they did. There was never any relief. Take the 2006 "Magnitsky Act" sanctions for example. Even after Russia allowed foreign tribunals and investigators access the sanctions on Russia were never removed. They were in fact increased. The thing is Russia has little interaction with the US economy. And oligarchs can easily use their ill gotten gains to lobby the US Congress. For the US putting sanctions on Russia is simple and cheap. At least that is what their members of Congress think. It is also quite popular with the US voting public.
It goes way beyond that. The goal is to setup a buffer state between Russia and NATO.
Yep. I personally think the tech sanctions would have been crippling enough. The SWIFT sanctions basically killed the US's ability to both directly fund agents in Russia and to screen their capital flows. It was quite stupid and self-defeating in my opinion. Freezing Russian central bank assets will lead to worldwide de-dollarization. Russian private asset seizure in the West will also decrease the amount of rich people stashing their ill gotten gains there. And since Europe did the same thing the limited chance the euro had of becoming a global reserve currency to challenge the dollar is also finished. I also personally think the dollar will continue to rise against the euro. The euro will enter into irreversible decline.
And forget crypto. A lot of members in the Russian government were trying to push the leadership into going in crypto and they did not. Do you know why? With the semiconductor sanctions would you choose a currency which relies on hash rate for your trades? Something which relies on the Internet when it can be cut off? It makes zero sense. It will also stop making sense in the West too as energy costs keep climbing.
Stalled. Did you know the Ukrainian government announced 2 million people had left Kiev? If that is true then 2/3rds of the population is already gone. That will make the mopping up way easier.
The Russians have deals to invest in gas fields in the Caspian with Iran. Probably also weapons deals. They just want their investment to be protected and for the deals not to be cancelled. It is in Iran and the US's best interests to keep those deals. Without Russian involvement it would be really difficult to make sure Iran would keep to their word on the nuclear clauses of the deal.
Did you notice they added another clause? Russian as second language. They will keep adding more clauses the more time drags on and the more resources they expend on this war. The issue of weapons of mass destruction you mentioned seems like something which would fall under the de-militarization clause to me. I can understand the Ukranians not wanting to lose territory. But you know what? The territory the Russians captured south and including Kherson is already larger than Crimea. Once the Russians get Kharkiv I doubt the deal will remain so generous.
Corporate leeches and Western lobbyists pulling out from Russia. I am sure there will be much rejoicing among ordinary Russians from this news.
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