Ukrainian War Developments

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Weaasel

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FairAndUnbiased said:
True, but Russia can extract more conditions beyond mere neutrality if they keep pushing.

1. Entire Donetsk, Lugansk, Crimea + Mariupol and surrounding raion formally recognized as Russian (land bridge Crimea to Russia)

2. Federal system for rest of Ukraine with federal level neutrality guarantee and very weak federal government

3. Demilitarized zone near the Donetsk/Lugansk/Crimea/Mariupol borders

They'll need to take Mykolaiv, Odesa and finish off the encircled forces in the east to get the leverage to enforce these conditions. In exchange Ukraine is not crippled, just hurt with an unequal treaty.
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They better not overplay their hand. That is the risk. Unless Putin can or has already prepared his economy to be cushioned with the fall out from being almost thoroughly cut off by the West, they do not have the time to force these...
 
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Weaasel

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Temstar said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500702359256768513
Another ceasefire in effect today, larger in scale than before too. And then this happened:

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=487985222954119
Governor of Sumy: Urgently! There are no "green corridors" in the region as of the morning of March 7!
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Ceasefire deals were agreed to in Mariupol before, but they repeatedly collapsed, with Russia and Ukraine accusing one another of violating the agreement. In the Western Media it was mostly reported as the Russia violating the agreement and not including Russia's accusations of Ukraine violating the agreement and Far Right Formations of the Ukrainian military preventing civilians from leaving. Who will Russia blame this time, if the agreements are not adhered to outside of Mariupol? Russia can afford a unilateral ceasefire in the locations mentioned for a period of 48 hours if they already have their defenses properly set in case of attempted breakout and reinforcement attacks. That means no shelling and no airstrikes by Russia against those cities.
 
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Weaasel

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Laviduce said:
Nothing new to see here:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500786160305647616

:rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

IMHO: They knew what they were doing. They wanted this to happen.
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They knew exactly what they were doing and what the reaction would be and yet they went ahead and did it. They did it, because at the time Russia was not prepared for a militarily hostile reaction to NATO expansion because they were weak at the time. The American Foreign Policy establishment have an obsession with dominating and containing particular Eurasian regional powers that are not aligned to it and also maintaining one Eurasian regional power as an enemy.
 
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Topazchen

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Weaasel said:
They knew exactly what they were doing and what the reaction would be and yet they went ahead and did it. They did it, because at the time Russia was not prepared for a militarily hostile reaction to NATO expansion because they were weak at the time. The American Foreign Policy establishment have an obsession with dominating and containing particular Eurasian regional powers that are not aligned to it and also maintaining one Eurasian regional power as an enemy.
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We'll, they are doing a very good job of bringing the heartland together, which to any serious geopolitical observer should be prevented at any cost.
 
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