Ukraine Revolt/Civil War News, Reports, Data, etc.

I though the Alexander Mercouris article reproduced by the Saker was very interesting.
I was not aware that the meeting between Putin, Merkel and Hollande was totally without advisor's and I agree with his flagging this up as significant



I found the following most intriguing

"I am coming increasingly round to the view of Alastair Newman that Merkel and Hollande came with no plan to Moscow but with the purpose of having what diplomats call "a full and frank discussion" in private with Putin looking at all the issues in the one place in Europe - the Kremlin - where they can be confident the Americans are not spying on them. That must be why they sent their officials away."

This is fully in line with the very divergent line that Merkel was expressing at Munich today where she fully contradicted the Biden and NATO line on providing arms to Kiev.

What is coming very clear (in so far as politicians are now stating this as opposed to simply seeing the blindingly obvious) is that while Washington sees growth and benefit from a new cold war, Europe only is getting stagnation and deflation, let alone a seriously deteriorating security environment (war!) on its borders, with all the likelihood of serial contagion onto its territory.

Some European voices have been saying no for some time and now it seems that the heavyweights are joining them.

SampanViking said:

What is coming very clear (in so far as politicians are now stating this as opposed to simply seeing the blindingly obvious) is that while Washington sees growth and benefit from a new cold war, Europe only is getting stagnation and deflation

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The eurozone's troubles have nothing to do with sanctions on Russia and the eastern Ukrainian rebels - they had problems years ago. However, it's no surprise that the countries doing better like Germany and the UK (although no eurozone) are most in favour of maintaining sanctions. And whilst Germany is running the eurozone the other eurozone countries will do what Merkel tells them to do.

Mr T said:

The eurozone's troubles have nothing to do with sanctions on Russia and the eastern Ukrainian rebels - they had problems years ago. However, it's no surprise that the countries doing better like Germany and the UK (although no eurozone) are most in favour of maintaining sanctions. And whilst Germany is running the eurozone the other eurozone countries will do what Merkel tells them to do.

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I think you miss the point.
The overall value of EU/Russian trade hit by sanctions may only be one percent, but that one percent is a large proportion of growth and effects the ability of the EU to grow out of the recent recessions and make the costs of them affordable.
Furthermore this one overall figure is concentrated into specific countries and key sectors which itself is deeply damaging to very specific areas of competitiveness.
On top of this nothing is ever static and such problems tend to to compound themselves as confidence takes a hit.
In totality and over time, you have conditions which make situations far more combustible, which is not really what you want when there is a raging fire just the other side of the fence.

In short, it is not only the current statistics, but the effect on overall trajectory that is unsettling Europe's leaders and the realisation that left unsettled, that the slide could be catastrophic.

Back to square One of what Putin suggested last year but which Kiev rejected in favour of all out war.



French President Hollande calls for broader autonomy for E.Ukraine

French President Francois Hollande called for “quite strong” autonomy for Ukraine’s eastern regions while speaking on France 2 TV. He also revealed part of the joint plan discussed in Moscow on the conflict’s solution.

On Saturday, Hollande said that the eastern Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Lugansk need “rather strong” autonomy from Kiev.

“These people have gone to war," Hollande

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. "It will be difficult to make them share a common life [with Kiev]."

The French President also revealed part of the joint document under negotiation between Berlin, Moscow, Paris and Kiev. He said it will feature a 50- to 70-kilometer demilitarized zone on each side of the current line dividing militia-held and Kiev-controlled territories.

The revelation comes after German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande discussed the situation with the Ukrainian president on Thursday and came to Moscow on Friday to meet President Vladimir Putin. The talks lasted nearly five hours and were characterized as 'constructive' by all sides.

As a result, a possible joint document is in progress on the implementation of the Minsk agreements signed in September last year, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. The document “would include proposals made by Ukrainian President Poroshenko and suggestions put forward today by Russian President Putin,” Peskov told journalists on Friday.

Putin is caught in a cauldron! We all know soldiers must bring along their passports when they go to wars!


"Munich (Germany) (AFP) - Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko Saturday brandished in front of world leaders several passports taken from Russian soldiers in what he said was proof of Moscow's "presence" in his country.

"I take with me the passports and military ID of Russian soldiers, Russian officers who come to us," Poroshenko said, dramatically waving two handfuls of at least seven documents."

SampanViking said:

I think you miss the point.
The overall value of EU/Russian trade hit by sanctions may only be one percent, but that one percent is a large proportion of growth and effects the ability of the EU to grow out of the recent recessions and make the costs of them affordable.
Furthermore this one overall figure is concentrated into specific countries and key sectors which itself is deeply damaging to very specific areas of competitiveness.
On top of this nothing is ever static and such problems tend to to compound themselves as confidence takes a hit.
In totality and over time, you have conditions which make situations far more combustible, which is not really what you want when there is a raging fire just the other side of the fence.

In short, it is not only the current statistics, but the effect on overall trajectory that is unsettling Europe's leaders and the realisation that left unsettled, that the slide could be catastrophic.

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While Russian sanctions will affect the economy of EU nations, since trade sanctions in general do cause that kind of effect. However, that's a very small part of what's causing the European downturn. The real reason they are having economic issues have everything to do with the huge amount of public and private debt in some of these countries and the inherent issues in having a monetary union without a fiscal union. Since so many peripheral eurozone countries have hit the fan when it comes to debt, their economy suffers and the countries that export to them due to its greater competitiveness (Germany, Netherlands, Finland and Australia) will suffer. In the long run, the euro will not survive due to the inherent flaws in such a monetary union and debt based economy rather than anything to do with Russian sanctions. You are turning something caused entirely by financial issues that Europe has into a political one.

tphuang said:

While Russian sanctions will affect the economy of EU nations, since trade sanctions in general do cause that kind of effect. However, that's a very small part of what's causing the European downturn. The real reason they are having economic issues have everything to do with the huge amount of public and private debt in some of these countries and the inherent issues in having a monetary union without a fiscal union. Since so many peripheral eurozone countries have hit the fan when it comes to debt, their economy suffers and the countries that export to them due to its greater competitiveness (Germany, Netherlands, Finland and Australia) will suffer. In the long run, the euro will not survive due to the inherent flaws in such a monetary union and debt based economy rather than anything to do with Russian sanctions. You are turning something caused entirely by financial issues that Europe has into a political one.

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Sanctions are instruments to achieve political ends with financial means. Russian sanctions are not the root cause of EU economy troubles. It simply exacerbates the current worsening economic situations in EU. Self-inflicted wounds to exports and energy security (Russian oil/gas/resources for manufacturing/growth) is at best unwise, at worse suicidal during recessions. Without a stable settlement in Ukraine, loss of Russian market will always haunt EU growth in the uncertain time ahead (possible Greek, Italy, Spain exits)

In case people are interested in the trade relationship between Germany and Russia. The following chart from Destatis (German Federal Statistical Office) can offer some actual numbers for the discussion.

so what's new in eastern ukraine? fighting has resumed or had it never stopped?

pla101prc said:

so what's new in eastern ukraine? fighting has resumed or had it never stopped?

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Fighting continues on most fronts but these have largely ground to a halt.
The only exception is the Debaltsevo salient/cauldron where the NAF are continuing a slow advance and squeeze of the pockets and extend their fire coverage of the M103 road.

There has been very heavy shelling of Donetsk overnight and footage of a huge explosion which is suspected of being a SRBM attack on a Chemical /Ammo factory .