Ukraine Revolt/Civil War News, Reports, Data, etc.

SampanViking said:

I am not sure how significant the cold will be in a winter war between two former Soviet Armies.
When I think winter in this instance, my thoughts turn to it being dark for a lot of the time and that this will favour the side with the best/most night vision.

Click to expand...

Russia on the spot as fears mount over east Ukraine conflict

Donetsk (Ukraine) (AFP) - Russia hit back Thursday against Western claims that it was sending fresh military hardware into eastern Ukraine which could fuel a return to all-out conflict.

The Kremlin issued a fierce denial after NATO's commander in Europe accused Russia of sending columns of troops and equipment over the border.

Asked at a press conference if Russian soldiers were fighting and dying in Ukraine, Russian Foreign Ministry official spokesman Alexander Lukashevich said: "Short answer -- no."
There was fresh shelling in the rebel stronghold of Donetsk Thursday afternoon after a quiet morning with only occasional exchanges of fire, an AFP reporter said.

Ukraine said four of its soldiers had been killed in the past 24 hours and 23 wounded.
A senior Ukrainian security official speaking to AFP on condition of anonymity claimed there were now thousands of Russian troops in the country.

"According to our estimations, there are 8,000 Russian soldiers, maybe more, on our territory at the moment," he said.

Pro-Russian gunmen guard their fighting position northwest of Donetsk, near the destroyed airport, on November 13, 2014, following days shelling in eastern Ukraine (AFP Photo/Menahem Kahana)


Ukrainian servicemen pet a dog at their position near the village of Peski, next to the eastern city …
The skirmishes on the ground played out against a backdrop of rising Western concern over claims that Russia is dispatching reinforcements to the east of the former Soviet state.

Pro-Russian separatists in east Ukraine have been fighting Ukrainian forces since April in a war which has claimed more than 4,000 lives and driven hundreds of thousands of people from their homes.
Moscow has repeatedly denied involvement but openly gives political backing to the self-declared separatist statelets in the east.

NATO's commander in Europe, US General Philip Breedlove, said Wednesday that "columns of Russian equipment, primarily Russian tanks, Russian artillery, Russian air defence systems and Russian combat troops" were entering Ukraine.
Later, Assistant Secretary-General Jens Anders Toyberg-Frandzen told an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council that it was "deeply concerned" by a possible return to full-scale fighting.
The US Ambassador to the UN, Samantha Power, also charged that Russia "talks peace but it keeps fueling war" as Washington warned that the West could ramp up punishing sanctions against the Kremlin.

Pro-Russian gunmen walk past destroyed houses in the North West suburb of Donetsk, eastern Ukraine, on November 13, 2014 (AFP Photo/Menahem Kahana)

Pro-Russian gunmen walk past destroyed houses in the North West suburb of Donetsk, eastern Ukraine, …
But Lukashevich told reporters in Moscow: "I can tell you unreservedly and officially that there have been and are no troops or troop movements across the border, let alone our troops' presence on Ukrainian territory, in the southeast."

- Uncertainty as winter approaches -
A nominal ceasefire has been in place in eastern Ukraine for two months stopping much frontline fighting although shelling at strategic flashpoints continues.

Observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) have reported a number of unmarked military convoys heading towards rebel strongholds in recent days.

The OSCE says its monitors saw a van marked "Cargo 200" -- Russian military code for military personnel killed in action -- crossing from Russia into Ukraine and back again on Tuesday.

Rebel negotiator Denis Pushilin has called for a fresh meeting over the ceasefire of the so-called Contact Group on Ukraine which includes representatives from the separatist side, Ukraine, Russia and the OSCE.

Pro-Russian rebel BTR with Russian flag on top of it, rolls towards Donetsk , Eastern Ukraine, Monday, Nov. 10, 2014. On Saturday, Associated Press reporters saw scores of military vehicles moving near Donetsk and farther to the east. Many of the unmarked vehicles were towing artillery. Ukrainian officials say rebel forces have received new weaponry and manpower from Russia. Moscow denies such claims. (AP Photo/ Mstyslav Chernov)

A Ukrainian "Right Sector" volunteer takes a rest at his position near the village of Pesk …
The West is watching anxiously to see how the situation in eastern Ukraine will develop as the former Soviet state's harsh winter kicks in.

Toyberg-Frandzen outlined three scenarios -- a "return to full-scale fighting"; a continuation of the current situation "for months" with low-level battles punctuated by periods of increased hostility; or a "frozen" conflict which could draw out the current situation for decades.

The senior Ukrainian security official predicted that pro-Russian forces may try to take control of the entire regions of Donetsk and Lugansk, of which separatists currently only control a part.

They could then try to create a corridor to Crimea, which Russia annexed in March, he added.
The Ukraine crisis has sent relations between Russia and the West plummeting to their lowest point since the Cold War.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely to face fresh pressure over Ukraine at a G20 summit in Brisbane from Saturday.
And Putin's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is set to hold talks on Ukraine with his German counterpart Frank-Walter Steinmeier on Tuesday.

- Australia monitors Russian ships -
Australia said Thursday it was tracking four Russian navy ships including a "heavily armed" cruiser and destroyer, in international waters off its north coast ahead of the high-level meeting.
There is public anger in Australia over the downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 over eastern Ukraine in July, killing 298 people including 38 Australian citizens and residents.

Ukraine, supported by Western nations, accuses Russia of supplying pro-Kremlin separatists with the missile that shot down the airliner but Moscow and the rebels blame Ukrainian forces.

Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott said that Russia's naval deployment highlighted its "assertiveness" but was "not unusual" ahead of a major conference.

Click to expand...

SampanViking said:

I am not sure how significant the cold will be in a winter war between two former Soviet Armies.
When I think winter in this instance, my thoughts turn to it being dark for a lot of the time and that this will favour the side with the best/most night vision.

Click to expand...

Hunt for Red October off Brisbane

If the G20 has been about discussing coordinated strategies for spurring the growth of the world economies, the summit in Brisbane this weekend will be taking place at a most awkward time. Nothing brings this home more poignantly than the fact that with just about 30 hours to go for the meeting in Brisbane to begin, the host country is preoccupied elsewhere — in the Coral Sea. Australia is reportedly busy intercepting “a Russian naval flotilla steaming towards the G20 Summit in Brisbane.” (Australian).
The Australians suspect that a Russian submarine could be lurking in the sea off Brisbane. It brings home nostalgic memories of the Sean Connery film The Hunt for Red October.
How can G20 overlook this dramatic backdrop of the New Cold War? With the clouds of a New Cold War gathering on the Eurasian landscape, what is the point in discussing coordinated global economic strategies?
The G20 summits have been increasingly reduced to vacuous events, conceived as sop to the emerging powers not to upset the apple cart of the Bretton Woods system. With the US economic recovery, the Bretton Woods system is no more under any immediate threat and the G20 may have outlived its utility.
Australia has a terrific opportunity in hand to inject new vitality to the G20. The Australians have a reputation for being unconventional folks with an earthy sense of practical wisdom. All they need to do is to simply throw into the dustbin the Brisbane summit’s agenda worked out by the sherpas, which focuses on esoteric tax issues and shady money-laundering practices and instead convert the gathering of the esteemed world statesmen into an international conference to discuss the Ukraine crisis. Call it the Congress of Brisbane.
When the world statesmen, who include one distinguished Nobel by the way, are tearing each other apart in a murderous vanity fair that is systematically dismembering Ukraine, how are they qualified to discuss the fruits of peace?
Indeed, the 2-day summit in Brisbane has become a macabre joke on the conscience of the world community. The tidings from Ukraine look grim.
The UN just reported to an emergency meeting of the Security Council in New York “over the possibility of a return to full scale fighting” in Ukraine, which has become a conflict that may “simmer this way for months, with sporadic, lower-level battles, marked by periods of increased hostilities and further casualties”, or yet another prospect of a “frozen” or protracted conflict “which would entrench the current status quo… for years or even decades to come.” (UN News)
The fact of the matter is that the Western countries, especially the United States, are wringing their hands in pleasure and purring that the Russian economy is about to pack up and crawl on its knees under the weight of their sanctions (here), but Moscow is in no mood to oblige them. Clearly, the least the G20 can do is to break this stalemate.
The Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has floated a simple formula for settling the Ukraine crisis. He was quoted by Interfax as saying after meeting President Barack Obama on the sidelines of a summit in Myanmar on Thursday that it is necessary “to abandon sanctions, leave relations to a normal working order, return to normal, calm, productive talks.”
It’s as simple as that. Going a step further, the two-day Congress of Brisbane could even find ample time for an expanded agenda that could be devoted to the hopeless fight by the international community against the Islamic State [IS].
With the King of Saudi Arabia and the Prime Minister of Turkey expected in Brisbane, there couldn’t be a better opportunity to discuss Syria and Iraq. These two venerable mentors of the Islamic State could just be the wise men who would know where the IS monster is at its weakest.
Simply put, if a solution could be found to the conflicts in Eurasia and the Middle East, that would go a long way to ensure that the painfully slow global economic recovery process becomes sustainable. Which in turn will enable the G20 meet in Istanbul next year to get habitation and a name in the world of summitry.

Posted in Diplomacy, Politics.

Tagged with Islamic State, New Cold War, Syria's civil war.

By M K Bhadrakumar – November 13, 2014

Click to expand...

Ukraine faces economic breakdown as war returns
Analysts say the IMF has repeated the errors made in Argentina and Greece: lending large sums of money to a country charging headlong towards insolvency

By Ambrose-Evans-Pritchard

5:00AM GMT 14 Nov 2014

The International Monetary Fund faces a fresh debacle as Ukraine burns through an $17bn rescue package agreed in April and spirals into a full-blown currency crisis, with credit markets already bracing for likely default.

The country's foreign reserves have dropped to $12.6bn, barely enough to cover six weeks worth of imports. Its currency has been in freefall since it became clear that the Minsk ceasefire deal with rebels in the Donbass region was breaking down.

The Hyvrnia has crashed 20pc against the dollar over the past week and has lost almost half its value this year, making it much harder for Ukrainian companies, banks and the state to service $60bn of foreign debt, mostly in dollars.

The economy is expected to contract by 10pc this year, twice what the IMF expected when it first approved the bailout. Ukraine still has another $10bn of IMF aid to come but the pace of disbursements is too slow to keep the country afloat.

Ukraine is in such dire straits that officials are holding back on pre-payments to Russia for gas imports, keeping their fingers crossed that the warm weather will last long enough for Ukraine to make it through the winter, relying on gas stocks and limited flows from Slovakia and Poland through “reverse pipelines”. This is a risky strategy since climate experts are predicting the coldest winter in more than 30 years.



It is unclear whether Ukraine will ever agree to pay a further $1.6bn of arrears to Russia's Gazprom still left from an EU-brokered deal, given the fresh violence on the ground. Nato officials and international peace monitors (OSCE) say Russian tanks, artillery and troops have been streaming across the border into eastern Ukraine. The United Nations Security Council said the country is at risk of “total war”.

“Ukraine desperately needs support and foreign exchange to defend the currency but there isn’t enough money left from the IMF. A sovereign default looks increasingly likely,” said Tim Ash, from Standard Bank.

Yields on three-year Ukrainian bonds spiked to 17.7pc on Thursday. Credit default swaps measuring bankruptcy risk soared to 1,485 basis points, a level that typically precedes a debt-restructuring.

The central bank raised interest rates to 14pc this week to stem capital flight but this is pushing the country into a deeper depression. The economy is already reeling from the loss of its industrial core in the coal and steel regions of the Donbass, and from drastic austerity measures imposed by the IMF itself, including a 50pc rise in fuel bills.

A string of companies are trying to restructure their debts, including the steel group Metinvest, First Ukrainian International Bank and Mriya Agro, one of the world’s biggest food producers. “The country is bankrupt,” said Oleksander Cherniavskiy, Mriya’s chief financial officer.

Analysts say the IMF has repeated the errors made in Argentina and Greece, lending large sums of money to a country charging headlong towards insolvency. The alternative - more in keeping with IMF rules - would have been to impose a haircut on creditors and offer Ukraine a fresh start with debt relief. “The IMF massively under-estimated the damage done to the economy by the conflict,” said Neil Shearing from Capital Economics.

The IMF has unwittingly bailed out creditors - including Russian state banks, Austrian lenders, as well as protecting Western investors accused by critics of propping up the previous regime - at the expense of taxpayers. The global asset group Franklin Templeton held $7.3bn of Ukrainian bonds at the end of 2013, openly stating that it was relying on cosy ties with Russia to ensure credit-worthiness.

The IMF also rewarded “vulture funds” that bought Ukrainian debt cheaply for quick gain, betting that the country was too important in geopolitical terms to fail, and would always be rescued in the end by either Russia or the West.

Mr Ash said there are serious issues of moral hazard involved. “A lot of people feel that these bondholders were part of the problem, and should therefore be part of the solution. In the end, Ukraine must decide whether it wants to pay off creditors or buy weapons to defend itself,” he said.

Ashoka Mody, a former top bailout official for the IMF in Europe, said it was clear from the start that Ukraine would need “very deep debt relief” to return to viability, given the collapse in exports and external debt of 75pc of GDP.

It is unclear why the IMF has once again put itself in a position where it is seen to be coddling creditors. Ukraine’s economy is too small to pose any systemic risk to the global finance, an argument that at least had some validity in the case of Greece at the outset of the eurozone debt crisis, when there was no backstop machinery to prevent EMU-wide contagion.

The Fund has published lengthy mea culpas analyzing its own errors with great candour in Argentina and Greece. Top officials vowed that the IMF would never again kick the can down the road by lending to an insolvent state. The lessons appear not to have been heeded.

Click to expand...

pla101prc said:

i think all armies are susceptible to inclement weather regardless of origin. Canada is cold enough, but the CF still has a separate training regimen for winter warfare, and even then units are not expected to match its performance in say nice spring weather. everything is different in winter, the little things, like instead of sleeping in bivouacs you now have 10 guys cramming into one arctic tent, and someone always has to stay up to keep the stove/lantern running so it won't freeze overnight, you travel in snowshoes, you are weighed down by extra winter kit, you eat more...things are bound to slow down when it gets cold, doesn't matter what army it is. and i say this especially for ukraine given the strain inclement weather usually puts on logistics.

Click to expand...

SampanViking said:

Sounds like fun!!

No I am not trying to minimise the effects of arctic/winter warfare, rather pointing out; that in this instance, you cannot differentiate the effects of winter between either side, in such a way as to make it a significant factor. Both sides are local, both acclimatised and both trained via the same base doctrine.

One side being blind in the night and the other not, does however strike me a potential decider, all the more so as NV equipment is a perfect example of none lethal equipment that could have a decisive impact on a conflict.

Click to expand...