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Deleted member 675 · Mar 25, 2007

Jeff Head said:
Except that they had done something precisely so belligerent in the past, in fact, the same exact thing! In the face of that, this should never have even come close to happening IMHO. That is my point.

Jeff, having a prior dispute does not authorise you to shoot first and ask questions later. It would have still caused a massive incident, the usual suspects would have pilled in and the Iranian government would have had a great story to deflect away the current domestic criticism against them.

to immediately warn them off strongly, informing them that to approach within 5 miles of the UK operations, or some other appropriate distance giving the Cornwalls time to react, and yes, if they did not, if they kept coming they should have been fired upon.

If the waters were disputed or Iranian that would not be a valid demand.

Now you have an international incident anyway, with 15 loyal and brave British personnel being held captive

They're alive, as are the Iranians. There's a difference between an incident and something that could have started a war.

unless somethig is done to punish them.

Well the US has all that firepower in the region - maybe it could show us what the "special relationship" is made of. I would hope it works both ways and not just when it's the US that is in trouble.

Jeff Head · Mar 25, 2007

Fu, I am sending you a PM with my full reply. I will just say, that IMHO, there is a war going on, the UK is involved in it, a belligerent power has already taken UK personnel hostage once, and it should never ever have been allowed to happen again.

Now that it has, I believe the UK and her allies must make a very strong point to the Iranians that it will not be tolerated and that will, sadly, tragically, involve more than telling the Iranians what bad boys they have been and convening the cobra team.

Deleted member 675 · Mar 25, 2007

Jeff Head said:
it should never ever have been allowed to happen again.

There is certainly no good-will left towards the Iranians, but firing first in this circumstance would have been far worse. Now that they have done this there will be no problem in using maximum force if they try to interfere with RN operations again.

Now that it has, I believe the UK and her allies must make a very strong point to the Iranians that it will not be tolerated and that will, sadly, tragically, involve more than telling the Iranians what bad boys they have been and convening the cobra team.

COBRA has apparently already been convened (or will be). As to a response, certainly "the Allies" need to band together. It is a clear escalation by the Iranians given the UNSC is already telling to shape up (and that's the whole UNSC, including China & Russia). But that does mean we will need whatever support we call on from countries like the US. We were there for it in 2001, so we need its help now in 2007.

Jeff Head · Mar 25, 2007

FuManChu said:
There is certainly no good-will left towards the Iranians, but firing first in this circumstance would have been far worse.

If your sailors and marines are in harms way, and a belligernt power is about to take them or looks in any way like they might...you warn them off strongly and then fire if they keep coming. The oweness is then on them to stop before the confrontation is joined. Given that the Iranians have already done this, IMHO, that is exactly what should have happened.

In not doing so here the second time, any warinigs and "strong talk" comes off pretty weak. They are emboldened now and what may have been able to be prevented the 1st time with a minor conforntation, is now likely to be a much larger one.

Here's a new

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:

Australian said:
IRAN MAY CHARGE BRITS AS SPIES
Correspondents in New York and London
March 26, 2007

FIFTEEN British sailors and marines arrested by Iran off the coast of Iraq could be charged with spying and held until the US releases five Iranian Revolutionary Guards seized by US forces in Iraq earlier this year.

Reports yesterday said a website run by associates of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had reported that the arrested Britons would be put before a court and indicted.

Referring to them as "insurgents", the site said: "If it is proven that they deliberately entered Iranian territory, they will be charged with espionage. If that is proven, they can expect a very serious penalty since, according to Iranian law, espionage is one of the most serious offences."

The penalty for espionage in Iran is death. But similar accusations of spying were made when eight British servicemen were detained in the same area in 2004. They were paraded blindfolded on television but did not appear in court and were freed after three nights in detention.

Iranian student groups called yesterday for the 15 detainees to be held until US forces released the five Revolutionary Guards seized in Iraq earlier this year.

If this is true and continues, the crisis will worsen and the UK's hand will be forced.

Deleted member 675 · Mar 25, 2007

Re: New News Report out of Austrailia

Jeff Head said:
If this is true and continues, the crisis will worsen and the UK's hand will be forced.

If anything happens to those guys all hell will break loose. It will probably kick off strikes against Iran itself - I'm sure the US would be leading that.

Hopefully this can be resolved peacefully. However if they want the Revolutionary Guard members back in return I'm not sure what will happen. Jeff (and Popeye if reading this), how do you think the US would respond if the Iranians said that was the only way to get them back alive? It is essentially blackmail, I know - would like to know what you think. Of course we couldn't possibly ask you to agree to it.

Jeff Head · Mar 25, 2007

Re: New News Report out of Austrailia

FuManChu said:
If anything happens to those guys all hell will break loose. It will probably kick off strikes against Iran itself - I'm sure the US would be leading that.

Hopefully this can be resolved peacefully. However if they want the Revolutionary Guard members back in return I'm not sure what will happen. Jeff (and Popeye if reading this), how do you think the US would respond if the Iranians said that was the only way to get them back alive? It is essentially blackmail, I know - would like to know what you think. Of course we couldn't possibly ask you to agree to it.

For my part, the US would support the UK. I do not believe, if the UK held Revolutionary Guard members, who had been caught with material and plans being used to attack and kill UK troops, thet the UK would return those people for trade either. Neither will the US.

What is happening here is an escalation in acts of war by Iran against coalition forces in and around Iraq. If the UK or US gives into to that kind of blackmail, then it will only get worse.

I believe the US will support the UK 100% in bluntly and with extreme prejudice making the point to the Iranian regime, if they push it that far (and, as you know, I personally believe they already have pushed it that far), that this type of thing will not only not be tolerated, but it will be punished

I believe the Iranians are making a huge tactial and strategic mistake if they believe they can continue to do this with impunity. They will ultimately have to back down or suffer severe military consequences.

Like you...despite all, I pray it can be resolved peacefully, but I also believe that the iranians themselves are making that more and more impossible.

tphuang · Mar 25, 2007

Re: New News Report out of Austrailia

Jeff Head said:
For my part, the US would support the UK. I do not believe, if the UK held Revolutionary Guard members, who had been caught with material and plans being used to attack and kill UK troops, thet the UK would return those people for trade either. Neither will the US.

What is happening here is an escalation in acts of war by Iran against coalition forces in and around Iraq. If the UK or US gives into to that kind of blackmail, then it will only get worse.

I believe the US will support the UK 100% in bluntly and with extreme prejudice making the point to the Iranian regime, if they push it that far (and, as you know, I personally believe they already have pushed it that far), that this type of thing will not only not be tolerated, but it will be punished

I believe the Iranians are making a huge tactial and strategic mistake if they believe they can continue to do this with impunity. They will ultimately have to back down or suffer severe military consequences.

Like you...despite all, I pray it can be resolved peacefully, but I also believe that the iranians themselves are making that more and more impossible.

Funny how this happened right after the most recent UN resolution against them. If the Iranians keep this up, even the Russia and China with their energy interest can't protect them anymore. Common sense doesn't seem to work to well with this Iranian regime.

Deleted member 675 · Mar 25, 2007

Re: New News Report out of Austrailia

tphuang said:
Funny how this happened right after the most recent UN resolution against them.

It was actually just before, but the timing was similar. I'm not so sure it's about getting sanctions lifted, as no one could believe it would work. It is probably more to do with getting their men caught in Iraq back.

If the Iranians keep this up, even the Russia and China with their energy interest can't protect them anymore.

I was certainly glad to see that neither tried to water down the new sanctions and that Russia has been refusing to send more fuel to Iran. It's in no one's interests for Iran to go nuclear.

Common sense doesn't seem to work to well with this Iranian regime.

Unfortunately Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has backed himself into a corner - even many conservative Iranians are getting more and more annoyed with him. He is desperate to hang onto power - all he has left is to scream about the US, Israel et al. But if he precipitates a conflict he could easily be signing his own death warrant (politically).

I seriously doubt the man is completely sane.

Obi Wan Russell · Mar 25, 2007

Re: New News Report out of Austrailia

I haven't commented previously on this situation because I'm boiling with anger. Those sailors should never have been out of machine gun range of the Cornwall at any time, but I suspect cuts to resources meant the ship was required to be in two or three places at once. So blame has to fall on the UK Government for it's continued emasculation of the armed forces (in other words they are giving aid and comfort to the enemy in time of war, better known as treason). The Iranian actions were clearly premeditated, an ambush planned to cature allied personnel in retaliation for Iranian officers being catured in Iraq. The actions of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard clearly fall into the definition of Piracy on the high seas and their gunboats should be treated as such in future. The captured sailors and marines will have been told to tell the Iranians anything they want to hear in order to secure their release so any 'confessions' that are released should be taken with a pinch of salt. Isn't there any GPS evidence to confirm their location in Iraqi waters as opposed to Iranian waters? Werte there any satellites monitoring the situation? If only google Earth updated more often...

Deleted member 675 · Mar 25, 2007

Re: New News Report out of Austrailia

Obi Wan Russell said:
I haven't commented previously on this situation because I'm boiling with anger.

I'm sure all but the most horrible of self-loathing weeds and snakes in this fair country feel the same way - I know I do!

So blame has to fall on the UK Government for it's continued emasculation of the armed forces

Although I agree they have been selling the RN out in many ways, we don't know what happened yet. It could have been that the waterway wasn't suitable for Cornwall to proceed. Also there's the possibility of the captain making a bad call, as Jeff said - there's the issue of why the helicopter was allowed to leave before the operation was over.

But if the big girl couldn't get involved because she was overworked then the government is ultimately responsible.

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