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Evaluating Novel Threats to the Homeland: UAVs and Cruise Missiles

Source: The Rand Corporation

Ref: ISBN 978-0-8330-4169-2

Published June 4, 2008

130 pages in PDF format

Changes in technology and adversary behavior will invariably produce new threats, such as the use of cruise missiles or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) by terrorist groups or other asymmetric actors to attack homeland targets.
In this study, Rand examines the threat of UAVs and cruise missiles, weighing the benefits, costs, and risks of different options from the point of view of a potential adversary. For several types of attacks, the suitability of cruise missiles and UAVs was compared against other options, such as vest bombs, car bombs, and mortars. This approach identifies the operational problems faced by a potential adversary to help the defense understand how the capabilities that different attack modes provide may overcome those problems.
RAND also explored defensive options to address the threat. This analysis considered defensive options targeting the full range of adversary activities, including activities before, during, and after an attack, rather than a preferential focus on classical terminal-defense strategies.
It found that UAVs and cruise missiles represent a “niche threat” within a larger threat context; therefore, defenses were sought that provide common protection against both this and other asymmetric threats. The monograph concludes with a discussion of cross-cutting lessons about this threat and the assessment of novel threats in general.


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Puma video online
US fuell cell manufacturer Protonex has put a video on its website homepage showing the handheld launch of an Aerovironment Puma unmanned air vehicle that has been altered to use Protonex's Procore hydrogen fuelled power system

And here is a video of the Pterosoar, another fuel cell powered UAV that achieved a 2h 58min endurance this year

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VIDEO: Arctic COTS UAV makes ship deck landing
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The 70cm (27.5in)-wingspan, 80cm-long Multiplex Funjet UAV flew for one week from the Norwegian coastguard icebreaker "KV Svalbard" helicopter landing deck in February.

The Funjet was modified with electronics for open-source Paparazzi autopilot software by the Geophysical Institute of the University of Bergen, in partnership with Hildesheim, Germany based-Martin Mueller Engineering, a small UAV company. It is being used to collect enviromental data on temperature, humidity, pressure and wind.

The scientists used a pilot to launch and land the UAV using remote-control, but above 1,600ft and out of visual contact the Funjet had to operate autonomusly

US Navy sonobuoy deployed UAV flight test this year

By Rob Coppinger

A sonobuoy tube-deployed unmanned air vehicle is to be flight tested using a Lockheed P-3C Orion in the third quarter of this year.

Called the Coyote and developed by the US Naval Air Systems Command and Arizona based-Advanced Ceramics Research, the sonobuoy-launched UAV has a 1h endurance at its 60kt (110km/h) cruise speed, or 20min at 85kt dash speed, at an operational altitude of up to 2,000ft (610m).

Its deployment altitude is 20,000ft and its control is line of sight up to 37km (20nm).

Following ejection, the tube's parachute is deployed and 5s later the tube sleeve is released. The flight surfaces are then deployed, horizontal tail first, then the wing, then the vertical tails.

The parachute remains attached for a further 10s after sleeve release while the lithium polymer battery-powered pusher propeller speeds up and the global positioning system searches for satellites for navigation.

By 15s after launch the Coyote's parachute is released and it begins its climb-out. After about 20s from launch the Coyote is in full flight mode.

The Coyote was launched from a representative sonobuoy launcher from a Raytheon C-12 Huron in April 2007. A second test is planned for July. However, its in-service aircraft is expected to be the P-3C.

BAE Systems unveils new Fury UAV

San Diego, California - BAE Systems has unveiled the latest member of its UAS (Unmanned Autonomous System) family. Sharing a similar airframe and some vehicle system components with the HERTI reconnaissance and surveillance UAS, Fury is an armed reconnaissance and close air support UAS which features latest generation mission systems avionics, a newly developed stores management system and a proven weapon guidance system.

Unveiled to coincide with the start of a major autonomous systems exhibition in San Diego, Fury is the product of a distinct military development programme. It has been developed and trialled in partnership with Thales UK’s missile business in Belfast, Northern Ireland. This latest member of the BAE Systems’ UAS family is armed with the new Thales Lightweight Multi-role Missile (LMM) system, selected for Fury due to its suitability for lightweight manoeuvrable platforms, and for its ability to fire on the move while delivering significant precision effects. LMM is small in size and builds on the heritage of combat proven munitions such as Starstreak and Starburst.

Speaking at the start of a major autonomous systems exhibition in San Diego, California, BAE Systems’ project director Chris Clarkson said: “Fury is an affordable and reliable platform which has the ability to perform a number of military roles. With a high degree of autonomy, it combines many of the already proven elements of our other unmanned platforms, including a small logistic footprint and low operator workload with a reliable and highly accurate weapon system.”

Trials have seen the successful completion of missile blast effects analysis trials on the fuselage, successful target engagement with a live round fired from a static Fury UAS and the successful capture and tracking of ground targets from an airborne Fury UAS. Airborne trials have also simulated remote firing of the missile towards a fixed target.

Future trials will demonstrate the guided launch of a live weapon from an airborne Fury vehicle. These will demonstrate the safe separation of the weapon from the aircraft and that the avionics and weapon systems can successfully guide a live weapon to the target. Target acquisition, designation, tracking, and guidance are performed by the avionics and mission system, while target confirmation and authority to launch the weapon are given by the weapons operator from the ground station, via a high-integrity data link.

Other members of BAE Systems’ unmanned autonomous systems family include the HERTI reconnaissance and surveillance UAS which was successfully deployed in Afghanistan by the Royal Air Force in 2007 and Taranis, a £124m Unmanned Combat Air Vehicle (UCAV) demonstrator programme that will help inform the UK MoD on the balance and capability of its ‘future force mix’.

Bundeswehr: Microdrones and high-altitude UAVs

By Karl Schwarz

Whereas the US armed forces especially, but also the United Kingdom and Italy, have already accumulated a wealth of experience in the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), the Luftwaffe is approaching the subject somewhat coutiously. Nevertheless, it is clear that, at least in the area of airborne surveillance and reconnaissance, the intention is definitely to make greater use of UAVs in the future. “Surveillance is a key capability,” explains Brigadier General Wolf-Dietrich Kniesel, General Strategic Development of the Luftwaffe in the Air Force Office. “If we exert surveillance pressure, the enemy has no time, for example, to build booby-traps or position missiles.”

With their long range and loiter time above the operational area, UAVs can contribute critically to the much sought-after information superiority. Because no human crew are required, greater flexibility of use is possible even under threat. Moreover, there are believed to be operational advantages, as fewer personnel have to be moved to the area of conflict. Thus the Americans control their UAVs in Afghanistan and Iraq primarily from Nellis AFB in Nevada.

In Germany a UAV Centre is under construction at Jagel Air Base, where Reconnaissance Wing 51 is stationed. A Tornado squadron is to be disbanded and replaced by a UAV unit. Jagel has the advantages of sufficient space and easy access to reserved airspace above the North Sea, given the likelihood that it will be some time before approval is obtained for the operation of UAVs outside restricted airspace.

Jagel will initially be the base for Euro Hawk. This version of the American RQ-4B Global Hawk is to be fitted with a SIGINT system developed by the EADS Defence Electronics business unit. As an “electromagnetic vacuum cleaner”, it will intercept radio and radar signals and thus contribute towards the development of a comprehensive situation picture.

A joint venture company between EADS and Northrop Grumman is the prime contractor for Euro Hawk. Based in Friedrichshafen, EuroHawk GmbH has been endowed with €430 million to develop and build the first demonstrator. This should be available by 2010 and will initially be operated with industry support. If the hoped-for performance is confirmed, the plan is to purchase a further four Euro Hawks which will then finally replace the ageing BR.1150 Atlantics in the SIGINT role from 2014.

Whereas the Euro Hawk programme has the protection of already being under contract, the Luftwaffe's second pet project has only just entered the competition phase. A commercial off-the-shelf medium altitude, long endurance (MALE) system with video camera and imaging intelligence is called for to meet the requirements of SAATEG, an in-theatre imaging surveillance system. According to the Bundeswehr plan, this should enable “joint service, continuous situation reconnaissance and surveillance, target reconnaissance and battle damage assessment”.

The five UAVs to be procured for an “initial capability” would also be stationed in Jagel and overseen there by pilots with IFR licences. To make operational use of them, however, deployment to Mazar-e Sharif in Afghanistan, for example, would be necessary. From there the MALEs could then watch over the country for 24 hours at a time.

The Luftwaffe's preferred candidate for SAATEG is clearly the Predator B (MQ-9 Reaper) from General Atomics. It is being marketed in Germany jointly with Diehl BGT Defence. However, the Heron-TP from Israel Aerospace Industries is likely to also satisfy the criteria. Invitations to tender both for the procurement and also for adaptation to German requirements and logistics support were issued for both types in March. “It is hoped that the system can be debated in Parliament at the end of 2008,” said Thomas Kossendey, parliamentary state secretary in the Defence Ministry. Deliveries should then commence in 2010.

Looking beyond the “initial capability”, the Luftwaffe has in mind building up the fleet to around 20 UAVs by 2020. According to Kossendey, one possible “target equipment” for SAATEG is the “Advanced UAV”, which could be realised under a trilateral cooperative agreement with France and Spain. In December 2007, the Federal Office of Defence Technology and Procurement (BWB), awarded EADS a contract for a 15-month “risk reduction study”. INDRA and Thales are also involved.

EADS is hoping to get into the UAV business in a big way through the Advanced UAV coupled with its parallel involvement in the development of an “Agile UAV”. “We are launching a modular concept on the market which represents a quantum leap in UAVs. I believe that this will enable us to offer the customer something which goes way beyond present capabilities,” said Dr. Stefan Zoller, CEO of EADS's Defence & Security Division, in an interview.

Whereas the Luftwaffe is thus grappling with the introduction of extremely complex aerial vehicles, the German Army has already been using the CL-289 unmanned reconnaissance air vehicle system, which proved its worth during “Allied Force” in Bosnia, since 1990. For shorter distances, three LUNA aerial reconnaissance and surveillance UAV systems with a range of around 40km were ordered in August 2003 from EMT of Penzberg. Each of these comprises two ground stations and nine air vehicles. Four further systems are to be purchased by 2012 to satisfy the needs of the new army structure.

Since August 2005 LUNA has been supplemented by 115 ALADIN close range imaging airborne reconnaissance drones. The model-sized, battery-powered motor gliders are also built by EMT. They are launched manually and permit real-time aerial reconnaissance and surveillance within a range of about 5 km, with an endurance time of up to 30 minutes. Two servicemen are required to get the drones operationally ready and conduct the mission. The reconnaissance results are available in real time and are also recorded so that they can be further analysed as required.

The KZO small target location aerial vehicle finally appeared in November 2005 after what seemed an endless development time, and is now being built by Rheinmetall Defence Electronics. Six systems are to be procured for €275 million. However, experience to date has been somewhat disappointing, since due to technical problems the drones have had to be grounded for some of the time.

Whereas the KZO has an operational range of up to 65km, the MIKADO mini reconnaissance drone system is envisaged for ultra-close range deployment, i.e. up to about 500m. Missions in built-up areas are conducted with small rotorcraft. A device manufactured by the Arnsberg-based company AirRobot was selected as the furthest developed and most cost-effective system of this kind. The first four-rotor helicopter was delivered at the end of 2006 for operational testing.

The German Army and Luftwaffe are not the only Services interested in UAVs, but the German Navy naturally is also seeking to use the potential of unmanned aerial vehicles. Corvettes such as the K130 need small unmanned helicopters to designate targets for missiles and to extend the range of tactical telecommunications through a radio relay capability. Candidates in this area include types such as the Camcopter S-100 from Schiebel and the Skeldar from Saab.

From FLUG REVUE 6/2008

Small Raytheon Missile Deployed On Predator

Graham Warwick

A small air-to-surface missile developed as a private venture by Raytheon is being deployed on the Predator unmanned aircraft by an unidentified customer.
The Griffin is a 42-inch-long, tube-launched missile with a semi-active laser seeker, and is intended to give the Predator and smaller UAVs an organic, self-guided direct attack capability, Raytheon says.

The short-range missile including its launcher weigh around 45 pounds, and the Predator will be able to carry up to three rounds for each Hellfire missile now carried. Although longer than Hellfire, the Griffin has a narrower diameter at 5.5 inches and a smaller warhead, reducing collateral damage.

Raytheon says the low-cost weapon is modular, using technology from several of the company’s existing weapons including Javelin, AIM-9X and guided projectiles. Other seekers and warheads could be installed, the company says.

Developed and tested using company funds, the weapon has been integrated on Predator, Raytheon says, but it declined to identify the customer.

Ultra Stealth

May 26, 2008

Bill Sweetman/Minneapolis

NGB demonstrator may be a twin-engine aircraft resembling an X-47B. Initial version will be piloted, but an unmanned endurance version is a probable follow-on.

Is Northrop Grumman building a secret bomber prototype? In late April, the company revealed first-quarter financial results. Data indicated $2 billion in new "restricted programs" contract awards at Integrated Systems, the aircraft division. This almost certainly confirms what DTI first reported earlier this year: Northrop Grumman has a classified, sole-source contract to build a demonstrator for the U.S. Air Force's Next-Generation Bomber (DTI March, p. 30).

USAF budgets show no funding for the Next-Generation Bomber (NGB) itself in 2008, although documents show money for technology work in Fiscal 2008-10. Northrop Grumman CEO Ron Sugar said last year that Integrated Systems had made strides in black programs and identified restricted projects as the top new-business opportunity. Taken together, the evidence points to a single, very large contract win. Northrop Grumman also acquired Scaled Composites in 2007, a company that can develop large prototype aircraft quickly.

The $2-billion contract casts new light on the decision in January by Boeing and Lockheed Martin to reveal their year-old collaboration on NGB. (Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman declined interview requests.) Hailed as an NGB "dream team" combining Boeing's bomber experience with Lockheed Martin's stealth technology, the teaming now looks like an effort to catch up with a rival that has a lead in the next major U.S. combat aircraft program.

It is likely that the prototype will build on technology under development for the Navy's X-47B Unmanned Combat Air System Demonstrator (UCAS-D), putting within reach USAF's goal of a 2018 initial operational capability date for the bomber. Industry and USAF sources have talked about a competition in 2010, leading to the start of systems development and demonstration in 2011. But it would be Northrop Grumman's to lose.

Events since 2000 placed Northrop Grumman in pole position. USAF interest in a replacement bomber was rekindled after 9/11, but USAF Secretary Jim Roche and Chief of Staff Gen. John Jumper focused on the Lockheed Martin FB-22, seeing it as a low-risk solution that bolstered the case for the embattled F-22.

The departures of Roche and Jumper in 2005 coincided with a change in thinking. In October, USAF defined a three-stage Next-Generation Long-Range Strike program. Phase I would keep the force effective until 2018, with upgrades to aircraft. Phase II would be a new "2018 bomber," while Phase III encompassed hypersonic concepts. This was the end of the road for the FB-22, since nobody envisioned the F-22 remaining in production long enough to dovetail with Phase II.

Late in 2005, at a conference on unmanned combat air vehicles in London, there were signs of convergence between the bomber requirement and the Joint UCAS project. J-UCAS had been kicked off as a major effort three years earlier, but USAF was interested in a platform larger than the Navy could accommodate.

Northrop Grumman J-UCAS Program Manager Scott Winship said at the time that the company had proposed completing a third prototype as an X-47C with a 172-ft. wingspan and 10,000-lb. payload. J-UCAS leader Mike Francis stressed an advantage of the unmanned vehicle: an inherently lower radar cross-section (RCS) than conventional tailed aircraft.

Despite the tension in J-UCAS, it was a surprise when an early-2006 high-level Pentagon review killed it, splitting resources into a white-world Navy effort and a classified USAF program, while endorsing a plan to field a bomber in 2018.

It's now apparent, however, that USAF had already picked a primary approach to the NGB, and that the next two years of work, starting with the remaining Fiscal 2006 J-UCAS funding, are intended to validate that choice.

This approach emerged from J-UCAS, and particularly from Northrop Grumman, which anticipated the J-UCAS split and was prepared to respond. The company believed that the basic 42,000-lb. J-UCAS was better suited to the Navy than to USAF, had focused on the carrier-based J-UCAS demonstration and picked a design that offered high lift and a simple wingfold.

Northrop Grumman's proposal for a bigger X-47C also preceded -- and may have inspired -- USAF's switch to a larger long-range bomber. This meant, too, that the NGB program could get a running start because it would use aerodynamics and stealth technology that were in the works for J-UCAS.

The X-47B was much more advanced, in aerodynamic terms, than it appeared (see sidebar), and the same is likely true of its low-observable (LO) qualities. The aircraft is one of the first to combine a highly blended tailless configuration with new materials developed since the 1980s. The NGB will be the same, if not more so.

Northrop Grumman has stressed the "all-aspect, broadband" stealth inherent in the X-47B. Tailless shapes don't have the "bow-tie" RCS pattern, with the smallest RCS on the nose and tail and peaks on the beam configurations, which characterizes conventional aircraft. They are stealthier against low-frequency radars -- including updated, active-array VHF radars marketed by Russia -- because they do not have shape features which are so small that their RCS in the VHF band is determined by size, rather than shape or materials. It may be significant that John Cashen, leader of the B-2 signatures team, returned in 2006 after 10 years in Australia and is now a consultant for Northrop Grumman.

RCS test facilities across the U.S. have been upgraded since the F-22 and B-2 were designed: USAF's range at Holloman AFB, N.M., was reequipped to handle bistatic measurements, and a sophisticated airborne RCS measurement program based on a modified 737 was delivered in 2001.

How low can LO go? One paper, co-authored by a principal in DenMar Inc., the company founded by Stealth pioneer Denys Overholser, refers to the development of fasteners for a body with an RCS of -70 dB./sq. meter -- one-thousandth of the -40 dB. associated with the JSF, and one-tenth that of a mosquito. DTI queried RCS engineers who don't believe such numbers are possible; but then, when mention of a -30 dB. signature leaked out in a 1981 Northrop paper, nobody believed that either.

Concept Image: Jozef Galtial for DTI

HALE UAVs Come of Age

The High Altitude, Long Endurance mission profile was never meant to be used with manned platform, but is perfectly suited for unmanned systems. Only few manned aircraft are prepared to fly and operate at these altitudes. The thin air at the Tropopause limits the use of conventional engines, but opens new horizons for surveillance, communications and electronic eavesdropping activities. After overcoming the technical obstacles, mission planners could benefit from unobstructed operations at altitudes well above civilian or military air traffic. At these altitudes, the atmosphere is calm, the thin air causes reduced drag, resulting in less energy required to maintain higher ground speed. Aircraft flying at these lofty altitudes are well above the jet stream and other high velocity currents, averaging 40 – 80 knots in speed, with peaks of up to 160 knots. These currents encountered at the high troposphere, at altitudes between 20,000 to 35,000 ft., usually affect the performance of aircraft operating at medium altitudes. (more...)


Until the early 2000s, only few manned platforms could soar to such heights. One of the first to explore these altitude was the Lockheed U-2 strategic reconnaissance aircraft, designed in the late 1950s. A decade later, the SR-71A strategic reconnaissance aircraft, unofficially known as the "Blackbird," was used as long-range, advanced, strategic reconnaissance aircraft. The first flight took place on Dec. 22, 1964. Then the 'Blackbird' served for 22 years providing strategic reconnaissance missions and was retired in 1990 only to return five years later to fill a critical recce gap. Throughout its nearly 24-year career, the SR-71 remained the world's fastest and highest-flying operational aircraft. The SR-71 flew at more than three times the speed of sound (Mach 3) at altitudes in excess of 80,000 feet (approximately 15 miles high).

The successor of the U-2, the U-2R 'Dragon Lady' is still operational today. Designed for high-altitude intelligence and reconnaissance missions, this aircraft can fly above 70,000 feet and carry some o the most advanced long-range reconnaissance gear available today. Its mission payloads include highest resolution SAR radar in service today, as well as sophisticated SIGINT systems. Providing near-real-time imagery and signals intelligence to warfighters and national authorities, the 'Dragon Lady' was used extensively during operation Iraqi Freedom in 2003 and provided important damage assessment information after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf of Mexico in 2005.

With the arrival of the RQ-4A Global Hawk, the missions of U-2R were reduced to those specific services which could not be supported yet by the unmanned platform. These missions will be transferred to the Global hawk fleet in the next decade, as the RQ-4B (Block 20, 30 and 40) aircraft are fielded, capable of carrying heavier payloads, including SIGINT and advanced SAR payloads.



Global Hawk may be dominating the high altitudes today, but in the near future, it will have to share those heights with more unmanned platforms. One such system is the Integrated Sensor Is Structure (ISIS) developed by Lockheed Martin Aeronautics. ISIS will provide a new model for persistent, autonomous ISR platform. Utilizing a stationary stratospheric airship, ISIS will establish a position on the 'high ground' at an altitude of 70,000 ft. This airship will be deployed for long missions, staying in position for one, five or even ten years. It will provide a persistent early warning sensor able to detect cruise missiles at distances of 600 kilometers or dismounted enemy combatants at a range of 300 km.

Smaller but but not less effective for its proposed mission is the Global Observer high altitude UAV system developed by Aerovironment. This aircraft was designed to provide long dwelling stratospheric capability with global range and no latitude restrictions. Operating at these heights, the platforms provides 'near space' capability comparable to satellites, providing services such as persistent ISR and communications relay, including dedicated communications support and satellite link redundancy for other UAVs.



Another system under development by Aurora Flight Science and Boeing is the the Orion, High Altitude, Long Loiter (HALL) Unmanned Aerial System. This stratospheric platform will be able to cruise at an altitude of 65,000 ft for about 100 hours, powered by reciprocating engines consuming liquid hydrogen fuel. With a gross takeoff weight of 7,000 lbs (3.175 tons) HALL will be able to carry payloads weighing about 400 lbs (181kg). The U.S. Army/SMDC is supporting a team lead by Aurora and Boeing as a strategic partner, developing two Orion HALL platforms, to demonstrate the new technology. First flight is expected by 2009. Aurora and Boeing have also teamed since 2004 on a Boeing-led concept definition study of a twin-engine, larger unmanned platform designed for missions over a week long, carrying multi-sensor payloads weighing up to 2,000 lbs.



Flying at the edge of space in the high stratosphere, a future unmanned aircraft could one day carry weapons or other payloads anywhere in the world within few hours, or deploy cargo to lower space orbit, responding within minutes to urgent mission requirements. These high flyers will be designed to carry our fast strikes deep into enemy territory, anywhere in the world. Such a project known as FALCON is pursued by DARPA and the US Air Force. Lockheed Marin, the system's developer is planning to fly the first FALCON demonstrator by the end of 2018, and is preparing to have such platform operational in about 10 years.

A similar platform expected to be demonstrated around that time is the X-51 WaveRider, developed by Boeing. This vehicle will demonstrate capabilities similar to the FALCON, as Boeing aims to compete with Lockheed Martin to fulfill the future USAF requirement for global strike with the hypersonic atmospheric vehicles. The waveRider will integrate a scramjet engine developed by Pratt & Whitney, a boost rocket motor derived from an ATACMS missile matched with an airframe built by Boeing. It will demonstrate acceleration from boost (Mach 4.5+) to Mach 6 -7 cruise.

The US Navy/USMC Tier II

Tactical UAV Program

The US Navy and US Marine Corps have decided to delay the tactical-level unmanned aircraft system program for a year, splitting the program into two separate phases, the first to begin in the first quarter of fiscal year 2009. Industry teams preparing for the tender, originally expected in the fall of 2007, will now re-evaluate their plans to address what seems to be a much larger program, aiming at the acquisition for thousands of new air vehicles over the next several years. In addition to US Marine Corps and US Navy uses, the new program is also expected to address US Air Force requirements for base protection. (more...)


The Navy and USMC plan to launch the program in 2008, with a baseline day/night imaging and target designation capability, similar to what the Boeing/Insitu Scan Eagle system is providing today. The Air Force program will follow by 2010 primarily addressing base security mission. In addition to standard EO payloads, these aircraft could also be equipped with acoustic sensors, to spot gunshots and other threats.

Companies that considered competing for the program include the Boeing/Insitu team, offering the Scan eagle, Raytheon, offering the Killer-Bee from Swift Engineering, AAI offering the Australian Aerosonde and MTC Technologies, offering the SpyHawk, designed by Arcturus. Northrop Grumman and Aurora Flight Sciences teamed to offer the Golden Eye 80 ducted-fan UAS and Israel Aerospace Industries prepared to offer its I-View 50 system with yet unnamed local partner.