U.S. 'exaggerates' China's defense

AssassinsMace said:

Interesting how neocons think they can survive even a limited nuclear strike. Look at how they thought how easy Iraq was going to be to conquer. The US can destroy China but destroy the world in the process. And I'm sure Japan has some radiation shield to protect themselves from the fallout that'll be a bullet train straight to Japan. The only ones that will start a nuclear war are the ones that think they'll survive it. Americans generally believe China having nuclear weapons is a recent event. I'd use to hear all the time, "If China ever got nukes, they'd start WWIII." Then I'd tell them China has had nukes since 1964. Their reaction was either to deny it because that was when it was thought a third world country didn't have the intellectually capability to put together a nuclear bomb or they'd be embarrassed from their ignorance. But now because of the whole Wen Ho Lee fabrication, they're both in denial and think China got nukes from stealing them from the US. So I guess that means China must've had a time machine back in 1964 that traveled to the future to steal nuclear secrets with the help of Wen Ho Lee. I guess that means China must've had a stolen a time machine in order to steal a time machine that the US hasn't invented yet.

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What has Iraq got anything to do with the effects of a nuclear conflict between China and America? It's not just the neocons. The USA have many think-tank organisations which had been contracted during the Cold War to analyse the effects of any potential nuclear war against any likely enemy. They have studied this topic for decades. Their understanding of nuclear conflict is borne out of very protracted and intense research. America doesn't have to ground burst its warheads in the areas where winds can blow the radioactive cloud to neighbouring countries to virtually annihilate the Chinese population - it has enough warheads not to. Conversely China must ground burst their warheads should they choose a counter-population strategy - a strategy that would similarly initiate the same counter-population strategy from the American side - and even then that would not be able to shut America down. America is far more resilient than many other countries in terms of surviving a nuclear conflict because it has a more diffused economic and industrial system. They are not concentrated, which would make them vulnerable to just 20+ warheads. With the NMD system, those the number of targets hit becomes reduced further.

The only ones that will start a nuclear war are the ones that think they'll survive it.

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Interesting. So going by your quote I take it that you believe that China's nuclear deterrent is a bluff?

Wow! Kongo, you must be one of those neocons. That's the first I've heard that nuclear detonations won't poison the atmosphere to which it'll travel through global currents.

Don't know what Iraq has to do with anything? The neocons said Iraq was going to be easy. The neocons also think they can survive a nuclear attack. You figure it out.

And you assume that China is going to attack the US right now to which why you hang on the 20 missile theory. Why would China all of the sudden want to attack the US? Is it like Imperial Japan who was worried that the US will interfere with its plans of domination in Asia? The only country right now that is militarily attacking and invading other countries is the US. So China isn't the one that the world has to worry about starting WWIII.

NMD is not a proven system and you point out experts? Well plenty of experts say it doesn't work.

So going by your quote I take it that you believe that China's nuclear deterrent is a bluff?

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Having nuclear weapons is a deterrent. Ask the Iranians and North Koreans. So what's your point unless you're suggesting the bluff is China has no nukes. If you don't know what I meant, just look at your own logic getting at every little angle how the US has nothing to worry about China's arsenal. Ergo, the US could possible in a 1st strike hit China with nukes. Americans say China is the worst country in the world. Well, the US has attack other countries for less. So the question is why hasn't the US attacked China if it's a sinch and no harm to the environment will happen according to you? The excuses are there. Maybe it's because the US can't or won't in fear of the consequences. The most simplist answer is usually the correct one.

AssassinsMace said:

Wow! Kongo, you must be one of those neocons. That's the first I've heard that nuclear detonations won't poison the atmosphere to which it'll travel through global currents.

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I suggest you enlighten yourself with a further investigations into the effects of nuclear detonations.

Don't know what Iraq has to do with anything? The neocons said Iraq was going to be easy. The neocons also think they can survive a nuclear attack. You figure it out.

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Throwing a red herring won't help. Can you condemn a scientist's findings to be wrong just because he has been wrong before in his life? You refuse to acknowledge the fact that America has studied nuclear conflicts for decades, unlike Iraq.

And you assume that China is going to attack the US right now to which why you hang on the 20 missile theory. Why would China all of the sudden want to attack the US? Is it like Imperial Japan who was worried that the US will interfere with its plans of domination in Asia? The only country right now that is militarily attacking and invading other countries is the US. So China isn't the one that the world has to worry about starting WWIII.

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When did I say that America was going to attack China with nukes? No government of America ever be able to use nukes first, to do so would be political suicide.

NMD is not a proven system and you point out experts? Well plenty of experts say it doesn't work.

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NMD is progressing rapidly. Many of the opponents to the NMD are politically motivatd since they believe that NMD is destabilising.

Having nuclear weapons is a deterrent. Ask the Iranians and North Koreans. So what's your point unless you're suggesting the bluff is China has no nukes. If you don't know what I meant, just look at your own logic getting at every little angle how the US has nothing to worry about China's arsenal. Ergo, the US could possible in a 1st strike hit China with nukes. Americans say China is the worst country in the world. Well, the US has attack other countries for less. So the question is why hasn't the US attacked China if it's a sinch and no harm to the environment will happen according to you? The excuses are there. Maybe it's because the US can't or won't in fear of the consequences. The most simplist answer is usually the correct one.

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You said "The only ones that will start a nuclear war are the ones that think they'll survive it. " Since China isn't able to survive a nuclear war, going by your logic it won't start a nuclear war, right? That would mean that officially sanctioned threats to nuke America should it interfere in a Taiwan conflict, must also be in your opinion, a bluff.

OK No more "my country will nuke yours" posts - there are rules on this and you have ignored them completely. Anymore and there will be warnings.

Sampanviking

Kongo said:

Interesting. So going by your quote I take it that you believe that China's nuclear deterrent is a bluff?

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Sorry to cut in, but yes I do believe that is a true statement for the past few decades. PRC's ICBM nuclear deterrrance was, in fact, a paper tiger.

On the other hand, its IRBM capability vs. Soviet Union had more substance, with approx. 80 DF-3A and 25-30 DF-4's deployed in 1980s.

With deployement of DF-31/DF-31A and JL-2's, the situation is changing. We'll have to wait and see how committed they are in building a sufficient ICBM/SLBM deterrance.

i dont really think the CIA or the DOD is doing anything wrong, i mean they are charged with defending America, its completely understandable if they overstate some aspect of Chinese defense, i mean doesnt the old adage 'better safe than sorry' apply here. i sure if they would much rather overestimate China rather than underestimate.

As for nuclear war, if there is one going to be one between US and China, China might not even get a warhead to America. If America Lauches a first strike using B-2s, they can quick take out bulk of the Chinese deterent, and then whatever is left can be handelled by the Missile defense.

All these nuke talk isnt really relevent, since there is little chance of US/China war, much less a nuclear war. US and its allies have essentially accepted that China is going to be a force to be reckon with, so they are trying to make China into one of them. Thats why europe and US is always yapping about democracy and human rights issue. They hope the a power China will be an extension of their value, same way as US is an extention of UK.

"China is no Soviet Union," said Robert Norris

They have the ability to be far greater a power than the CCCP ever was. They actually will have the economy and population to sustain a vast and highly technological military with little strain on the nation. I don't think DoDs estimation is anything but an underestimation. PROC is already spending nearly half of the US defense budget. Their unwillingness to be transparent should be taken as a threat in and of itself. They have already blinded US survelience satalites and have the ability to shoot them down. PROC is directly challanging the US in the area she has always dominated... space. With MRVs that can independantly target carriers and break thru fleet ABMs they would render our carrier forces obsolete making an invasion of Taiwan probable. With the recent stalking of the Kitty Hawk it is time DoD got off her butt and started taking this seriously. :nono:

Someone hasn't read the Rand Corp's report...

I'm curious, have you actually read the congressional report in its entirety? If you haven't, I would suggest that you keep your rather boorish opinions to yourself. The Pentagon report is full of mistakes and blatant exaggeration. CDF actually picked up quite a few. Even FAS wrote a rather biting article about their various misgivings. Considering that Richard Fisher was one of the key witness, I would imagine that whatever the aim of the commission, they certainly weren't trying to be objective.

Then again, everything is a threat to people like you. Apparently you've never heard that war is a failure of diplomacy. I suppose it has never occured to you that perhaps, instead of keep spending yourself into the grave buying up advanced weapons to counter an imaginary enemy for the benefit of a self sustaining MIC at the expense of everyone else, a more rounded world view is needed. I am sorry, but the "We are America and thus, is always right" attitude will not serve you well in this century.

Big-E said:

"China is no Soviet Union," said Robert Norris

They have the ability to be far greater a power than the CCCP ever was. They actually will have the economy and population to sustain a vast and highly technological military with little strain on the nation. I don't think DoDs estimation is anything but an underestimation. PROC is already spending nearly half of the US defense budget. Their unwillingness to be transparent should be taken as a threat in and of itself. They have already blinded US survelience satalites and have the ability to shoot them down. PROC is directly challanging the US in the area she has always dominated... space. With MRVs that can independantly target carriers and break thru fleet ABMs they would render our carrier forces obsolete making an invasion of Taiwan probable. With the recent stalking of the Kitty Hawk it is time DoD got off her butt and started taking this seriously. :nono:

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China is spending no where near half the US defense budget. the US spends like 500 billion, not factoring the money being spend in Iraq.The highest and yet still credible estimate of Chinese spending is by the DoD, and is about 90 billion USD, plus this figure is not accepted by everyone as other independent organization put the it much lower.

kunmingren said:

China is spending no where near half the US defense budget. the US spends like 500 billion, not factoring the money being spend in Iraq.The highest and yet still credible estimate of Chinese spending is by the DoD, and is about 90 billion USD, plus this figure is not accepted by everyone as other independent organization put the it much lower.

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It could be anywhere from 90 to the upper 100s... PLA is not exactly transparent and I choose to heir on the side of caution. US defense spending for FY 06' was 419 billion.

eecsmaster said:

I would suggest that you keep your rather boorish opinions to yourself.

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And who are you, the Central Comittee? I don't do Red Cross work in Sichaun anymore so you can keep your censorship to yourself.

I have read the report and it was disturbing. Wether all of it is true or not the provacative incidents by PROC blinding satalites or PLAN shadowing the Kitty Hawk calls for action. A nation that is untransparent in their defense spending are hiding something. They stole the plans for the B-2 and just about every other advanced system we have. I personally met a Chinese rep who was later under suspicion of espionage... case still pending.

eecsmaster said:

Then again, everything is a threat to people like you. Apparently you've never heard that war is a failure of diplomacy. I suppose it has never occured to you that perhaps, instead of keep spending yourself into the grave buying up advanced weapons to counter an imaginary enemy for the benefit of a self sustaining MIC at the expense of everyone else, a more rounded world view is needed. I am sorry, but the "We are America and thus, is always right" attitude will not serve you well in this century.

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You can keep your NZ Labor attitude... we aren't going to disarm so others are responsible for our security. No one will do it but us. The world is not one utopian Kumbaya fest. There are real threats that call for real solutions.