Donald Trump's state of mind is a global risk
A cabinet of sycophants makes an already erratic US president a greater threat
US psychiatrists have been discouraged from commenting on the mental health of public figures since the so-called Goldwater rule in the 1970s. To the uncredentialed, however, the American president’s hold on reality seems to be erratic. The dwindling universe of respectable Donald Trump apologists attribute his daily flights of fancy to trolling. He is just winding liberals up, they say. That Pavlovian excuse is wearing thin. As Trump readies a US armada for a Middle Eastern war whose aims he cannot articulate, an honest reckoning of geopolitical risks would place his wayward psychology high up.
That Trump often lies is, in itself, not proof of irrationality. That he is encouraged to believe his own lies is more serious. Many of the US president’s foreign counterparts deal with the Trump challenge by trying to stoke his vanity. Nato’s secretary-general, Mark Rutte, depicts Trump as a “Daddy” who is doing the manly things necessary to keep the family safe. Assuming Rutte does not believe his flattery, the aim is to boost Trump’s ego so as to steer his actions. The risk is that such honeyed words only push him deeper into fantasyland. When a leader has an outsized estimate of his own powers, truth-tellers are indispensable. Who are Trump’s truth-tellers?
With Trump’s cabinet, that question is rhetorical. His top appointees outdo each other in praise for their leader. Trump is the greatest president in US history (Pam Bondi, attorney-general); he has created an American golden age (Howard Lutnick, commerce secretary); he has pulled off the most powerful military raid “I would say in world history” (Pete Hegseth, defence secretary, after the Venezuela operation); and so on. These are one notch below saying that Trump can turn back the waves. A good public servant is supposed to give the commander-in-chief a realistic appraisal of his options. Can America be confident of Hegseth’s advice to Trump on Iran?
It goes without saying that liberals are fantasising when they call for the 25th amendment — the constitutional tool that allows for removal of a president who is “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office”. That can only be triggered by the vice-president with a majority vote of the cabinet. It is impossible to imagine JD Vance playing Brutus to Trump’s Caesar. The vice-president’s basis for succeeding Trump rests on his unimpeachable loyalty.
[....] For all the talk of Trump as a madman, my colleague’s Taco rule (Trump always chickens out) generally holds. He can reasonably be described as a bully and a narcissist. But he backs off when he is outgunned. Taco only works, however, when Trump knows what is at risk. Whether foreign or American, people who tell him what he wants to hear, not what he needs to know, are playing a dangerous game. The road to Trumpian recklessness is paved with flattery.