Trump 2.0 official thread

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enroger

Senior Member
Registered Member
solarz said:
This isn't insanity. On the contrary, this is compellingly rational. DT is pulling America out of the global hegemony game and reinforcing its status as the dominant power of the American hemisphere. More specifically, he is pulling out of Europe and fortifying the American position at home (hence Venezuela and Greenland). He is NOT, however, pulling out of the Middle East and the Western Pacific, indicating that those are far more vital interests to the US than Europe.
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Agreed. Just securing western hemisphere already gives him a lot of leverage in terms of oil/minerals producing region that China depends on. Add that with US's grasp on Middle East. I'd say he intend to be able to choke off China's industry when the time come. We shouldn't underestimate him or his backers.
 
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SCE2Aux

New Member
Registered Member
solarz said:
This isn't insanity. On the contrary, this is compellingly rational. DT is pulling America out of the global hegemony game and reinforcing its status as the dominant power of the American hemisphere. More specifically, he is pulling out of Europe and fortifying the American position at home (hence Venezuela and Greenland). He is NOT, however, pulling out of the Middle East and the Western Pacific, indicating that those are far more vital interests to the US than Europe.
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I would agree that consolidation would make sense as a purely pragmatic strategy... if the US had the capacity and will to make the most out of either place. There's no stomach to do anything protracted regarding Venezuela - private industry has already said they're not tempted to invest there unless there are guarantees that their investments will be protected, ie a prolonged and costly occupation. There's no will to do another Iraq or Afghanistan again. Granted, there are differences so one can't draw a direct parallel, but it would still be messy. The history of the US in Venezuela reinforces that.
As for Greenland, I think we can dismiss the military aspect for annexation - they could've done a lot of that within the NATO framework and lost zero political capital with countries they'd still like to do business with. So, it's either shallow imperialism, or the mineral wealth. Regarding the rare earths, it's a big question whether the substances are even viable for mining and refining. So why is Trump jumping the gun? It's not like Greenlanders are wholesale opposed to resource prospecting and mining.
 
zyklon

zyklon

Junior Member
Registered Member
solarz

solarz

Brigadier
SCE2Aux said:
I would agree that consolidation would make sense as a purely pragmatic strategy... if the US had the capacity and will to make the most out of either place. There's no stomach to do anything protracted regarding Venezuela - private industry has already said they're not tempted to invest there unless there are guarantees that their investments will be protected, ie a prolonged and costly occupation. There's no will to do another Iraq or Afghanistan again. Granted, there are differences so one can't draw a direct parallel, but it would still be messy. The history of the US in Venezuela reinforces that.
As for Greenland, I think we can dismiss the military aspect for annexation - they could've done a lot of that within the NATO framework and lost zero political capital with countries they'd still like to do business with. So, it's either shallow imperialism, or the mineral wealth. Regarding the rare earths, it's a big question whether the substances are even viable for mining and refining. So why is Trump jumping the gun? It's not like Greenlanders are wholesale opposed to resource prospecting and mining.
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The purpose of Venezuela was to intimidate other South and Latin American nations to fall into line. Most specifically it is targeted at the leaders of those nations, basically like a mafia don saying: you better fall in line or I can take your head whenever I want.

The thing with Greenland is, Trump's emphasis on the security issues reveals his true purpose. If it was just security he wanted, he can operate under the NATO framework. The fact that he doesn't shows that he no longer wants to keep NATO around. Remember that NATO is not just a military alliance, it is a symbol that underpins the entire US-EU dynamic, where the US is currently the underwriter for EU security, both military and financial. Pulling out of NATO isn't just pulling out of a military alliance, it means pulling out of that entire structure. Trump most likely sees Europe as poor ROI, and arguably he's quite correct.
 
siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

Field Marshall
Staff member
Super Moderator
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SCE2Aux

New Member
Registered Member
solarz said:
The purpose of Venezuela was to intimidate other South and Latin American nations to fall into line. Most specifically it is targeted at the leaders of those nations, basically like a mafia don saying: you better fall in line or I can take your head whenever I want.

The thing with Greenland is, Trump's emphasis on the security issues reveals his true purpose. If it was just security he wanted, he can operate under the NATO framework. The fact that he doesn't shows that he no longer wants to keep NATO around. Remember that NATO is not just a military alliance, it is a symbol that underpins the entire US-EU dynamic, where the US is currently the underwriter for EU security, both military and financial. Pulling out of NATO isn't just pulling out of a military alliance, it means pulling out of that entire structure. Trump most likely sees Europe as poor ROI, and arguably he's quite correct.
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Yeah makes sense, I buy that logic.
 
plawolf

plawolf

Lieutenant General
dingyibvs said:
Sure they can fire it, and they should. Trump doesn't respect those who don't fight back. China fought back and Trump backed down. If the EU launches the bazooka what do you think will happen to the US stock market, particularly the Mag 7? The only substance behind the AI bubble is the real money from the likes of Google, MS, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla flowing to Nvidia (and Google also to its own TPU). If those companies are hurt (Apple will too as their cash cow app store will be taxed) then they'll have to tighten their belts and the bubble will collapse spectacularly. And that's just stocks. Bond yields on both sides will also soar as money will flee treasury holdings, probably into assets like gold.

The thing is, it's not really like a Bazooka. You can't unfire a Bazooka, but you can roll back economic measures. Trump can reverse all that by TACOing, as he's done many times before. Trump doesn't strike me as someone who would value Greenland more than financial carnage.
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Trump doesn’t respect fighting spirit, he respects strength.

China could afford to go toe-to-toe, blow-for-blow with America because it can give as good as it gets and has plenty of cards yet to play.

The EU only have one card. Once played that’s it. If Trump ups the ante they have no further viable escalation paths available. And everyone knows that. If the EU does pull the trigger, markets will react, but not by as much as you seem to think because the EU has no follow up. That’s the limit of their power and the damage they can do. That’s easy for markets to price in and move on.
 
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Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
dingyibvs said:
Sure they can fire it, and they should. Trump doesn't respect those who don't fight back. China fought back and Trump backed down. If the EU launches the bazooka what do you think will happen to the US stock market, particularly the Mag 7? The only substance behind the AI bubble is the real money from the likes of Google, MS, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla flowing to Nvidia (and Google also to its own TPU). If those companies are hurt (Apple will too as their cash cow app store will be taxed) then they'll have to tighten their belts and the bubble will collapse spectacularly. And that's just stocks. Bond yields on both sides will also soar as money will flee treasury holdings, probably into assets like gold.

The thing is, it's not really like a Bazooka. You can't unfire a Bazooka, but you can roll back economic measures. Trump can reverse all that by TACOing, as he's done many times before. Trump doesn't strike me as someone who would value Greenland more than financial carnage.
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EU is so hopelessly outmatched by the US, that this bazooka thing is only just some PR

Next nano second after the "bazooka", Trump would sign an executive order about US data centers and US cloud/online services not allowing European access and in the next 2 nano seconds Europe would collapse. Like, not metaphorically, but actually literally collapse

The amount of dependence that Europe has on all levels on US is such, that you can just call them vassals and realpolitik would actually say you understate their dire situation
 
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