Trump 2.0 official thread

C

CMP

Captain
Registered Member
Lethe said:
At this point you really have to wonder just what Trump and his administration actually get out of negotiating between Russia and Ukraine. I get that Trump has his schtick about ending wars that Democrats start and wants his Nobel Peace Prize to validate that, but it seems a rather thankless task otherwise.
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I think they still haven't given up on prying Russia from China.
 
zyklon

zyklon

Junior Member
Registered Member
Lethe said:
At this point you really have to wonder just what Trump and his administration actually get out of negotiating between Russia and Ukraine. I get that Trump has his schtick about ending wars that Democrats start and wants his Nobel Peace Prize to validate that, but it seems a rather thankless task otherwise.
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CMP said:
I think they still haven't given up on prying Russia from China.
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In addition to Trump's desire to pull a "reverse Nixon," he — or more likely a few of his more foresightful advisors — recognize that an especially disastrous and ugly Ukrainian defeat on the battlefield could severely damage American credibility and by extension American influence across European capitals, if not undo NATO as an institution.

Therefore, to preserve the semblances of Pax Americana for a little longer, it's in Washington's interest to force the Zelensky government into a peace deal now than to risk Russian troops seizing Kiev — live streamed on YouTube in 4K — should Ukrainian forces face operational collapse in the not necessarily distant future.
 
lych470

lych470

Junior Member
Registered Member
AssassinsMace said:
I just saw a journalist for the Washington Post say when he was in Japan and he happened to get into a conference where the then US ambassador to Japan, Rahm Emmanuel, was speaking. He said that Rahm Emmanuel was pushing Japan to have nukes. Interesting because since then Japan has not even passively mentioned at all about going nuclear despite how the US is essentially endorsing them to go nuclear, it's probably in their minds of the consequences if they do. Countries like nuclear China and North Korea don't see Japan as the good guys. So if they have nukes, the more likely China and North Korea won't hesitate nor regret to use nukes first on them if they see something they don't like happening with Japan. Would they want the increased probability of that happening? Japan is close by so a strike on Japan could happen with little to no warning. Then despite how they have good relations with South Korea now, you think South Korea won't want to arm with nukes because Japan has them? They still have a problem with Japan denying what they did to them in WWII. Then let's not forget Russia. Japan wants back land they took as a result of WWII. Look at that can of worms Japan opens if they go nuclear. And the US just wants to get the focus off themselves and right on Japan only which what Rahm Emmanuel was doing...
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Japan getting nukes might possibly be the biggest boon to Chinese foreign policy. 'Non interference in other nation's affairs' will have to give way in light of a nuclear Japan, and China will actually force the complete de-militarisation of Japan and occupation of the Japanese home islands.
 
lych470

lych470

Junior Member
Registered Member
RoastGooseHKer said:
Absolutely! So an ideal G2 would be for the U.S. to keep its alliance system with Japan and South Korea intact. Beijing would recognise Japan and South Korea belonging to U.S. traditional imperial sphere. In exchange, Taiwan would be reunified with the PRC, and Washington would recognise China’s dominion over the South China Sea and parts of Indian Ocean so long a U.S. vessels would be given free passage without interference. Both Washington and Beijing would work to stop the rise and militarisation of other powers like Japan and India. And here you go: you got a Concert of Great Powers (like Congress of Vienna) between US, China, and even Russia each hold dominion over their own spheres to prevent the rise of other powers. It means the three powers would not have to engage in life-struggles, whilst empowering other trouble-making middle powers, per prescription by structural realists.
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A triumvirate of Powers tend to end poorly. Just ask Antony or Pompey.
 
plawolf

plawolf

Lieutenant General
lych470 said:
Japan getting nukes might possibly be the biggest boon to Chinese foreign policy. 'Non interference in other nation's affairs' will have to give way in light of a nuclear Japan, and China will actually force the complete de-militarisation of Japan and occupation of the Japanese home islands.
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No, Japan obtaining nuclear weapons would be a disaster for China and it is something China will go to war to prevent.

Japan attempting to get nukes would be a massive boon that China will gladly seize and take full advantage of. But it will absolutely stop Japan from crossing that threshold even if it means dropping the No First Use policy and then dropping nukes on Japan. But that is literally the nuclear option and will only be used as a last resort. What is infinitely more likely is that China will check Japan’s nuclear ambitions with sanctions and embargo’s, and even direct kinetic military strikes, and then use the need to hunt down WMD as an additional justification for full invasion and occupation.
 
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