Trump 2.0 official thread

antiterror13

Brigadier
Once they start using Nvidia en masse again, then they will leave that sector and focus on other areas of AI. Who will want to invest huge sums of money into something they are not even sure about the return meanwhile they can easily buy a ready made/better product available to them? lol
In short, if the US and Chinese government allows Nvidia back into the market then it will obviously lead to Nvidia dominating the market completely again like before since they have a ready made/better proven product with a widely used ecosystem. So companies will be more comfortable continuing relying on that ecosystem and Chips to do their job. So yeah I believe it’s actually the US selling the rope to China to hang herself. Lol

I think probably better for Chinese govt to allow nVidia to Chinese market for the sake of competition, competition is good for everybody. Probably Chinese govt can make a rule to not allow businesses to use 100% nVidia, let's say maximum 50% nVidia and the rest has to be local or something like that. Chinese local GPU is already very competitive, so should be fine
 

BoraTas

Major
Registered Member
@KFX rule based order.

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Does he know most of the demand for such minerals is from China and Russia could just buy from China? For real, I was quite surprised when I found out China was barely a net exporter of rare earth products. Its production overwhelmingly serves its own industry. And the production is capped by law to preserve the environment as much as possible.

I once wrote a post about this. I will copy paste from there. The numbers are for the end of 2022.

China's mine production: 210,000 tonnes, capped by law (mineral content in ore)
Global mine production: ~ 300,000 tonnes
China's refinement: ~ 255,000 tonnes (refined content). It indicates 45,000 tonnes of unrefined material imports

China's export: 48,000 tonnes of refined rare earth products.
So the net export is 3,000 tonnes in terms of mineral weight. China doesn't dig much for other countries. It just refines for them.

So what matter here are China's refinement strength and its scale. None of these are going to change just because of mines elsewhere. Think tankies don't get this.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Does he know most of the demand for such minerals is from China and Russia could just buy from China? For real, I was quite surprised when I found out China was barely a net exporter of rare earth products. Its production overwhelmingly serves its own industry. And the production is capped by law to preserve the environment as much as possible.

I once wrote a post about this. I will copy paste from there. The numbers are for the end of 2022.

China's mine production: 210,000 tonnes, capped by law (mineral content in ore)
Global mine production: ~ 300,000 tonnes
China's refinement: ~ 255,000 tonnes (refined content). It indicates 45,000 tonnes of imports

China's export: 48,000 tonnes of refined rare earth products. Net export: 3,000 tonnes.

No because he doesn’t read. Next!
 

Michael90

Junior Member
Registered Member
I think probably better for Chinese govt to allow nVidia to Chinese market for the sake of competition, competition is good for everybody. Probably Chinese govt can make a rule to not allow businesses to use 100% nVidia, let's say maximum 50% nVidia and the rest has to be local or something like that. Chinese local GPU is already very competitive, so should be fine
lol dude, private companies are not state owned companies . Private companies focus and priorities are completely different from state owned ones. So SOE will obviously follow the governments order to the letter, but private companies have different considerations which are profits and returns for their shareholders first and foremost. If a decision which will maximize their profits and reduce costs and lead to higher ROI then they will go for that and rightly so. So if Nvidia is back in the market they will dominate completely again by default of their size, ecosystem, product, and reliability. Companies will not even think of going to Huawei again(something many where not even happy to do in the first place, if not for the sanctions none would have done so),that will be on the back burner, or they will do a token small purchase which they won’t use much for their latest/most modern products for AI, this will in turn affects Huawei’s revenue and most of all slow down her advancement since they will have less data for inference and thus less data to fine turn their products leading to an even bigger gap with Nvidia. In short the gap will only widen even more with Nvidia and lead to a point where they have fallen so far behind they will probably just have to give up that sector and rely fully on USA TECHNOLOGY AGAIN like before . lol.

So I will say it’s a bad move.we are all humans and we all know that when you are under pressure and have no choice you tend to push yourself more and even think out of the box about any way for you to survive and put much more effort in everything you do more than when you are in a comfort zone someone has made for you.lol Look at Huawei for example before and after the sanctions . Do you think they would have developed all the core products they developed this past 6 years if not for US sanctions? Of course no, they would have gladly keep relying on US technology to keep running their company for a long time .
 
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AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
Does he know most of the demand for such minerals is from China and Russia could just buy from China? For real, I was quite surprised when I found out China was barely a net exporter of rare earth products. Its production overwhelmingly serves its own industry. And the production is capped by law to preserve the environment as much as possible.

I once wrote a post about this. I will copy paste from there. The numbers are for the end of 2022.

China's mine production: 210,000 tonnes, capped by law (mineral content in ore)
Global mine production: ~ 300,000 tonnes
China's refinement: ~ 255,000 tonnes (refined content). It indicates 45,000 tonnes of unrefined material imports

China's export: 48,000 tonnes of refined rare earth products.
So the net export is 3,000 tonnes in terms of mineral weight. China doesn't dig much for other countries. It just refines for them.

So what matter here are China's refinement strength and its scale. None of these are going to change just because of mines elsewhere. Think tankies don't get this.
I think Trump has as much understanding of the rare earths industry as he does with tariffs. Nobody for the foreseeable future is going to refine and produce them cheaper without violating someone's human rights than China. Before the turn of the century, rare earths was on the US ban list to sell to China. That's how precious they were. So how does that work when they think China collapses if they can't sell them to the West because they have alternative sources now? Somehow China can't use these precious metals for themselves to make advanced tech when the US banned the sale of them to China a quarter century ago because they were too scared of what China would do with them?
 

GodRektsNoobs

Senior Member
Registered Member
Interesting note that the Chinese delegation to Stockholm considerably outnumbered the American one. Possibly a hint towards granularity and specificity of the asks.



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I'm sure they are just there to provide one-on-one emotional support to each member of the American delegation, so to speak...

 

MortyandRick

Senior Member
Registered Member
lol dude, private companies are not state owned companies . Private companies focus and priorities are completely different from state owned ones. So SOE will obviously follow the governments order to the letter, but private companies have different considerations which are profits and returns for their shareholders first and foremost. If a decision which will maximize their profits and reduce costs and lead to higher ROI then they will go for that and rightly so. So if Nvidia is back in the market they will dominate completely again by default of their size, ecosystem, product, and reliability. Companies will not even think of going to Huawei again(something many where not even happy to do in the first place, if not for the sanctions none would have done so),that will be on the back burner, or they will do a token small purchase which they won’t use much for their latest/most modern products for AI, this will in turn affects Huawei’s revenue and most of all slow down her advancement since they will have less data for inference and thus less data to fine turn their products leading to an even bigger gap with Nvidia. In short the gap will only widen even more with Nvidia and lead to a point where they have fallen so far behind they will probably just have to give up that sector and rely fully on USA TECHNOLOGY AGAIN like before . lol.

So I will say it’s a bad move.we are all humans and we all know that when you are under pressure and have no choice you tend to push yourself more and even think out of the box about any way for you to survive and put much more effort in everything you do more than when you are in a comfort zone someone has made for you.lol Look at Huawei for example before and after the sanctions . Do you think they would have developed all the core products they developed this past 6 years if not for US sanctions? Of course no, they would have gladly keep relying on US technology to keep running their company for a long time .
You seem to be pretty proud of what seems like your hope and opinion rather than fact. Time will tell.

Did you think Huawei was gonna collapse after the US sanctioned them?

Who in china would buy a Huawei phone vs an apple phone? Let's not forget, there was never a threat to ban apple.

H20 can be banned at any time. Has trackers. Thats a real threat. It's not gonna be as popular as you think.
 
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