Trump 2.0 official thread

[argo]

"You, your children and your grandchildren will remain eternal serfdoms to us the God-chosen masters, toil away in sweatshops until you die, own little to nothing and be happy"

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1918803004087472432

Sounds like stability.

 

[AssassinsMace]

The idea of "over-capacity" is one of those terms the West comes up with to make the old sound new again. Like Republicans who came up with the name "political correctness". It's nothing new. It's actually what they've been practicing long before where no one could say anything that offended them. You can't say anything bad or criticize America for any reason. They were sensitive to any criticism so don't say it just like they see people who they say are being too politically sensitive. What was normal for them to do became something different when it wasn't their sensitivities that were affected. They don't want people seeing they were doing it themselves so they called it something else so people don't see them as hypocrites. The only reason why they're making over-capacity an issue is too make it look China is only doing it therefore they must stop this "unique" wrong only coming from China.

What is over-capacity? Producing more than you need in hopes of using it to trade with others and making money from it. That's the entire history of modern Western capitalism. You think any European country could have a first world economy and lifestyle using only the resources they have within their own borders? The only way they can have a first world lifestyle is by being dependent on exports making money from others selling it to them. In other words making more than they need and selling it to others to enrich themselves in order to keep their first world lifestyles.

Supply chains are more important than ever to the West like never heard before. Why? Because before they stole and took other people's resources so they can make money for themselves. They wouldn't have a first world lifestyle if they didn't do that. Supply chains are so important now to the West because they need other countries resources in order to make things that they want others to buy from them. Look at all the unethical and immoral things they have to do to get there. China is doing nothing of the sort. China is paying more money that the West ever would in buying other countries' resources because that's why the West complains they can't compete against China in obtaining those resources. China is out-bidding them in getting them aka paying more. Then when China sells what they produce to others, is anyone being forced to buy it? No, otherwise you would be hearing the West accusing China of forcing others to buy aka stealing money from others by forcing them to buy things they don't need. You hear nothing of the sort.

Air conditioners and refrigerators use to be luxuries only found in the West. Now they can be seen everywhere. Why? Because China made them cheap enough that they were affordable to more than just being available in the West. By their definition that's over-capacity. Which brings up the point why the West is complaining about China's over-capacity. It's not because China is denying the Global South from making their own air conditioners and refrigerators so they can make money for themselves. It's all about how China is denying the West from making money from selling air conditioners and refrigerators for their own profit so they can maintain their first world lifestyles. They don't have a problem when they outsource to China to make air conditioners and refrigerators for them to sell to themselves and to everyone else in the world. They have a problem because they're not making money from China doing it. What was JD Vance's problem with globalization? He didn't like how the non-Western world wasn't just the West's workforce so they can make all the money.

 

[GulfLander]

Actually, should a US-Japan split occur, the biggest worry for China would be Japan seeking its own nuclear deterrence. That would put Beijing in a complicated spot of maybe having to choose whether to conduct a preventive war against Japan to coerce Japan from going nuclear (Israeli approach to Iran), or recognising Japan as a nuclear state with the hope of pushing US out of Asia. However, this would mean recognising Japan as another great power at China's doorstep. For China, whilst the US is the biggest geopolitical rival mainly from a material sense (and many Chinese actually respect the US due to its history, culture, political ideology, prosperity, etc.), a nuclear-armed Japan would be both a historical nemesis (ideology plus historical memories) and geopolitical rival. Or Beijing could try to work with Washington as part of a great power concert to try to preserve the status quo, but such approach would be difficult to pass the US Congress.

I remember reading an article b4 of the advisor of the new japan PM, talking abt chance for Japan to hav like sovereignity(?) Somethjng like that, during Trump2.0. Also talked abt havjng a new security architecture w CN and RUS?

 

[Wrought]

The idea of "over-capacity" is one of those terms the West comes up with to make the old sound new again. Like Republicans who came up with the name "political correctness". It's nothing new. It's actually what they've been practicing long before where no one could say anything that offended them. You can't say anything bad or criticize America for any reason. They were sensitive to any criticism so don't say it just like they see people who they say are being too politically sensitive. What was normal for them to do became something different when it wasn't their sensitivities that were affected. They don't want people seeing they were doing it themselves so they called it something else so people don't see them as hypocrites. The only reason why they're making over-capacity an issue is too make it look China is only doing it therefore they must stop this "unique" wrong only coming from China.

What is over-capacity? Producing more than you need in hopes of using it to trade with others and making money from it. That's the entire history of modern Western capitalism. You think any European country could have a first world economy and lifestyle using only the resources they have within their own borders? The only way they can have a first world lifestyle is by being dependent on exports making money from others selling it to them. In other words making more than they need and selling it to others to enrich themselves in order to keep their first world lifestyles.

Supply chains are more important than ever to the West like never heard before. Why? Because before they stole and took other people's resources so they can make money for themselves. They wouldn't have a first world lifestyle if they didn't do that. Supply chains are so important now to the West because they need other countries resources in order to make things that they want others to buy from them. Look at all the unethical and immoral things they have to do to get there. China is doing nothing of the sort. China is paying more money that the West ever would in buying other countries' resources because that's why the West complains they can't compete against China in obtaining those resources. China is out-bidding them in getting them aka paying more. Then when China sells what they produce to others, is anyone being forced to buy it? No, otherwise you would be hearing the West accusing China of forcing others to buy aka stealing money from others by forcing them to buy things they don't need. You hear nothing of the sort.

Air conditioners and refrigerators use to be luxuries only found in the West. Now they can be seen everywhere. Why? Because China made them cheap enough that they were affordable to more than just being available in the West. By their definition that's over-capacity. Which brings up the point why the West is complaining about China's over-capacity. It's not because China is denying the Global South from making their own air conditioners and refrigerators so they can make money for themselves. It's all about how China is denying the West from making money from selling air conditioners and refrigerators for their own profit so they can maintain their first world lifestyles. They don't have a problem when they outsource to China to make air conditioners and refrigerators for them to sell to themselves and to everyone else in the world. They have a problem because they're not making money from China doing it. What was JD Vance's problem with globalization? He didn't like how the non-Western world wasn't just the West's workforce so they can make all the money.

Too many words for a very simple concept. Overcapacity is producing more than you need. But who defines need? Not politicians from hostile countries, that's for sure.

It is a real problem though, and openly acknowledged as such by the government. Just not to the extent that certain folks portray it as.

 

[Maxim]

LOL

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1908334022096232960

 

[horse]

A lot of strange things on the internet.

 

[manqiangrexue]

Like this guy?

View attachment 151121

That's Private level in North Korea. More like these dudes:

 

[Thecore]

There are several caveats in your scenario that could prevent Japan and United Korea from geopolitically aligning with China.

First, given China’s "overcapacity" in the heavy industrial and ever-growing high-tech sectors, both Korea and Japan will likely remain China’s geo-economic competitors even if Seoul and Tokyo were to have foreign and defense policies independent of Washington. Yes, whilst both the United Korea and Japan would like to export to the Chinese market, Chinese companies - given its much cheaper inputs and integrated supply chain - could still drive Korean and Japanese corporate champions (Mitsubishi, Nippon Steel, Samsung, Hyundai, Daiwoo, etc.) out of the Chinese, ASEAN, European, etc. markets short of China-targeted multilateral tariffs. The Korean and Japanese markets by themselves would not be able to support the two countries’ heavy industrial and high-tech champions. Therefore, given the geo-economic competition over the same markets, Japan and United Korea would likely work with the US (likely highly protectionist following withdrawal from Asia), the EU (if it still exists), and India (China’s largest adversary by then) to prevent China from dominating the global markets ranging from AI to steel making. It would be a much more autarchic world.

Secondly, historical memories and ideology still matter. In the real world today, whilst Americans have a distaste toward China due to ideology, current Chinese distaste toward the U.S. is mainly based on US geopolitical containment of China. Putting geopolitics aside, Chinese actually have great deals of respect toward the US due to the latter’s soft power, historical assistance to China during WWII, innovation, entrepreneurship, and simply being the most successful capitalist country. That’s why so many Chinese still want to study in the US so long as they don’t get banned by Trump. If it wasn’t Trump and Biden’s brutish approach, many within the Chinese business and intellectual elites are actually quite critical of the CPC, hoping that Beijing could strike a deal with Washington to calm the waters a bit and maintain bilateral trade and personnel exchanges. The same kind of soft power cannot be said about Japan. Yes there are many anime fans in China, but this is a far cry from the admiration given to the US. Moreover, whilst every Chinese have been taught about US Army pilots fighting alongside Chinese troops during China’s most difficult time, they also cannot forget images of Japanese troops raping and disemboweling people in Nanjing. So the very of Japan and China working together against the US could still be an ideological taboo for many Chinese.

Third, Japan’s self-perception as a unique and homogenous polity long outside of China’s imperial tributary system matters. Japan was briefly an ally/tributary member of China during the Tang Dynasty right after the Tang-Goguryeo War. Yet, there is long-held belief that since the collapse of Song Dynasty, Japan became independent from the tributary system and should therefore have at least same level of nominal political equality vis-a-vis the Chinese emperor. This was shown during the Imjin War, when Japan openly challenged Ming hegemony but failed. Japan would try again in 1894 against the declining Qing and succeeded in putting an end to China’s tributary system by taking out China’s last tributary member state (Joseon Korea). And following WWII, the main argument in Japan is that whilst Tokyo lost to the US, it never lost to China. Thus, Tokyo would never accept an inferior geopolitical position vis-a-vis Beijing. To prevent itself from falling into an inferior geopolitical position, Tokyo would work very hard with Russia and India to balance against China should the US ever withdraw from Northeast Asia. That would allow Japan to import cheap Russia oil whilst selling it high-tech and heavy industrial products to India (which has long banned similar Chinese goods). As with historical memories, an inferior geopolitical position would further incentivise China to pressure Japan to own up to its recent historical debts akin to Germany's atonement of war. This would mean Japan having to pay up large sums of historical indemnities (not only to China, but also to Korea and ASEAN states) Tokyo has long tried successfully to avoid. By maintaining itself as China's geopolitical adversary with nuclear weapons and aligned with China's other rivals (mainly India), Japan could continue to avoid having to deal with historical issues way past the 2031-2045 100th anniversary mark. When you have done so many wrongs to others, you might as well continue down your path with hopes of good luck because walking back could mean the end of everything for you. It is the same reason why Russia never apologises and continues its historical imperialistic course in Ukraine today.

Finally, Japan’s geopolitical perception toward China is somewhat similar to Britain’s offshore balancing approach to Continental Europe. Just like Britain always fought to prevent the rise of a dominant continental power (Napoleonic France, Tsarist Russia, Germany), Japan also has an offshore balancing approach toward China, which is already the dominant continental AND likely maritime power in Asia. Whatever Britain feared the most is already happening to Japan. Thus, expect at least an Indian-Japanese alliance (possible with Russia) with nuclear sharing should the US ever withdraw.

As with Korea, a nuclear-armed United Korea would share a border with China and have irredentist political goals of claiming land's resided by Chinese Koreans. And there’s the geoeconomics competition for world markets. That would mean the United Korea more likely to align with Japan and India than with China.

Basically what it boils down to is that China needs to start thinking of its geostrategic goals as becoming the boot on the necks of the Japanese and Samsung Koreans for eternity. Not regional peace or stability. I think this entails rapidly ramping up the nuclear arsenal so that the limp dicked NFU policies can be dumped in the trash. Institute policies such as unambiguous strategic nuclear strikes if Japan chooses to pursue their own nukes. I don't even see Tokyo, Kyoto and Osaka being made an example of as being a long-term detriment to China's global standing. There will be short-term pain, but it's ALWAYS better to ask for forgiveness than to ask for permission.

 

[siegecrossbow]

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[RoastGooseHKer]

Do they have the capability to compete with China in AI?

Nope, and it doesn't need to. Just like Japan's MSDF doesn't need to match the PLAN boat-by-boat. Should the the US ever abandon Japan, a minimum nuclear deterrence (200 bombs or less using Japan's own massive stockpile of wgpu and heu) would be sufficient to ensure that Tokyo would be a great power at China's doorstep. An alliance with India and Australia (and possibly strategic partnership with Russia, too) would add additional uncertainties to China's strategic calculations.