Trump 2.0 official thread

[burritocannon]

why can't the us just siphon rees from all the approved legitimate licenses? i think they have that degree of control. we can throw any notions about lawfulness out the window.

oh also if it wasnt clear enough: in this scenario we also dont care about if anyone is able to make anything either

 

[FriedButter]

Does that mean the US intends to cope through the RE shortages on black market and smuggling instead of getting the supply restored?

They will probably agree to pretend on returning to the truce. Then the US breaks the truce, China caves their head in, US plays victim, they meet again, and go back to pretending. Until one side decides to stop the fake charade.

 

[CMP]

They will probably agree to pretend on returning to the truce. Then the US breaks the truce, China caves their head in, US plays victim, they meet again, and go back to pretending. Until one side decides to stop the fake charade.

Truly the most retarded of cold wars.

 

[Wrought]

Truly the most retarded of cold wars.

....the first time as tragedy, the second time as farce.

 

[CMP]

....the first time as tragedy, the second time as farce.

My interpretation of why the 2025 cold war looks retarded is that the power relationship has been completely inverted already but the hegemon still needs to pretend they hold all the cards. And on top of that, the chihuahuas owned by the former #1 used to get some face and now no longer do. They're finally being treated as exactly what they are. Irritating uppity yappy runts that bark loud when their owner is standing behind them. But once their owner is the one that starts beating them, they shut up real fast.

 

[Temstar]

They will probably agree to pretend on returning to the truce. Then the US breaks the truce, China caves their head in, US plays victim, they meet again, and go back to pretending. Until one side decides to stop the fake charade.

Each time this happens someone in Trump's orbit gets the blame and gets the cold shoulder. The pattern goes:

1. Someone new gets Trump's ears, their opinion is previous person was too soft on China and things are going to change around here
2. They cook up some policy and convince Trump this time it will make China come to him and beg
3. The new policy angers China and China enacts countermeasure, the person is completely blindsided because the China whisperer told him CCP is weak and wouldn't respond
4. Trump's team can't come up with a good countermeasure, so Trump threatens to raise tariffs to save face
5. Trump TACOs and nothing happens
6. That person gets the blame and gets kicked out of Trump's close orbit
7. Go back to step 1

Rubio, Vance, Lutnick, Bessent is well on his way next

 

[iewgnem]

The “great meeting” between Xi and Trump might turn up as a chit chat in an hallway or public room.



The meeting is just to extend the so called truce or in other words the US has zero intentions of negotiating in good faith. They are only interested in buying time as they (Bessent) said before. Using trade deals to force other countries to impose an economic blockade on China.

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The issue with "negotiation" is only America think there are any negotiation. China never made any demands for relaxing RE control, China doesnt care about Nvidia or western hip, China doesnt care about ASML, China doesnt care about tariffs, China's RE restriction is just a fact. You can't make progress in "talks" if you're the only one who needs to talk

 

[9dashline]

why can't the us just siphon rees from all the approved legitimate licenses? i think they have that degree of control. we can throw any notions about lawfulness out the window.

oh also if it wasnt clear enough: in this scenario we also dont care about if anyone is able to make anything either

China doesnt need to export any REE to anyone, this is how they can force everyone off the petrodollar

 

[bsdnf]

why can't the us just siphon rees from all the approved legitimate licenses? i think they have that degree of control. we can throw any notions about lawfulness out the window.

oh also if it wasnt clear enough: in this scenario we also dont care about if anyone is able to make anything either

This issue will definitely be considered during approval. You need to declare how much rare earth your parts actually require, and high-purity rare earths will never be easily approved. China's licenses, like US chip regulations, will be revoked if your parts are found where they shouldn't be.

 

[iewgnem]

why can't the us just siphon rees from all the approved legitimate licenses? i think they have that degree of control. we can throw any notions about lawfulness out the window.

oh also if it wasnt clear enough: in this scenario we also dont care about if anyone is able to make anything either

I guess theres nothing preventing US from taking magnets or just PM motors out of washing machines, but then they'd have to redesign everything to use commercial low performance motors.

Mil use magnets are actually different from commercial ones either due to temperature or shape, and it would be hard for Ford to explain why they need those.

Then there are things like Samarium of which there are no real legimate non mil uses.