Trump 2.0 official thread

[Michael90]

Proof that Japan disproportionately improved Taiwan?

Come on dude, a simple AI search will show you that Taiwan indeed improved significantly during Japanese rule. I can't blame the Qing government though since they were facing unrest, political turmoil, invasions, infighting, were long in decline and fallen way behind industrial powers like Japan. U.S, Russia, Germany, UK etc. So tjey were in no position to look after a far off remote territory like Taiwan. Hence the century of humiliation that followed.

 

[Michael90]

Try telling that to an indigenous Taiwanese.

Obviously it wasnt an all rosy or bloodless rule. Every colonial power had to use force and supression to maintain their rule and deter opposition and rebels be it Russia, Japan, U.K, France, Spain etc etc. However that doesn't negate the points i made whatsoever. Its no wonder some Taiwanese still have a fond memory of Japan.

 

[Michael90]

Vietnam cooked.

Vietnam's exports to the US are like 1/3 of their GDP, so I think they just nuked their economy.

Yeah thats a surprise. Im actually more surprised India got just 26% tariff. I thought India will actually jave one of the highest if not the highest of the major economies since India has one of the most protective markets among those countries and one of the highest tartiffs. So i think they actually got the nest deal out of the bunch, though they were still hit and it will still affect their economy as well.

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

Once the Triffin Dilemma confused economists;now Trump’s‘Liberation Day’tantrum gifted us the Trumpian Dilemma:a choose-your-own-stupidity adventure where narcissism meets economic chaos.Pro tip:It’s like Triffin,but with 40%more‘I alone can fix it.’"

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[Biscuits]

Come on dude, a simple AI search will show you that Taiwan indeed improved significantly during Japanese rule. I can't blame the Qing government though since they were facing unrest, political turmoil, invasions, infighting, were long in decline and fallen way behind industrial powers like Japan. U.S, Russia, Germany, UK etc. So tjey were in no position to look after a far off remote territory like Taiwan. Hence the century of humiliation that followed.

This is nazi war crime apologia.

Every nation/region around the 1920-40s were undergoing improvements due to tech going forward. Jews/other "undesirable" also experienced "better" lives in the around nazi era than before by the same logic. Japan launched a genocidal invasion of China and failed, that's the end of it. Obviously Chinese in 1940 had better lives than in 1910, due to sheer progress of technology, which was not restricted to Japan, it was happening across all major powers.

Obviously it wasnt an all rosy or bloodless rule. Every colonial power had to use force and supression to maintain their rule and deter opposition and rebels be it Russia, Japan, U.K, France, Spain etc etc. However that doesn't negate the points i made whatsoever. Its no wonder some Taiwanese still have a fond memory of Japan.

Yeah you need to cool the nazi apologia.

There's maybe 100x more Baltics ppl that are nostalgic for direct Russian control than anyone in China who wants Imperial Japan... The only ppl who say that in China are extreme edgelords who wouldn't put their fight where their words are.

 

[Xiongmao]

Tanvi Ratna is basically echoing what Yanis Varoufakis argued above. It's not her idea, and it is the right take.

Trump is trying to reset the global trading order. This will crush the markets (in the short-term, at the minimum) because the markets were built on assumptions of trade stability. Panic across many industries will be the default for several months.

The gamble is that they can transform the US into a manufacturing economy through exploiting demand & security leverage. Most of the world - particularly East Asia - does not consume nearly as much as the US, and many of them (especially Europe) rely on the US for security, so they'll be forced into a dilemma:

1. They can reduce trade & security treaties with the US and consume more themselves; this means less dollars exchanged and less dollars spent on defense, allowing the US to depreciate the dollar (or appreciate those countries' currencies), either way US products are more competitive.
2. They can sign a deal with Trump, where they agree to buying more US products and paying more for security (e.g. balance the deficit), achieving effectively the same thing through subsidization of US manufacturing; in this scenario, which Trump prefers, the dollar can still stay relatively strong as those countries will essentially be forced to swap their currencies for the dollar to pay US exporters.
3. They can, of course, also just eat the tariffs and subsidize their manufacturers, but that's the same as (2) except they get nothing in return.

Seems like a great strategy until you realize two things:

1. Many of the "partners" targeted are already facing crises; e.g. South Korea, Taiwan, much of Europe, run export-based economies, and they just don't have enough demand themselves to support their industries, so they can't do (1), nor can they simply switch to selling to China, since the Chinese market is tapped out by domestic producers.
2. If they appreciate their currencies, as the US demands, they accelerate their deindustrialization. This is basically Plaza Accords 2.0 and will lead to lost decades especially when these economies are already struggling with demographics and Chinese competition.
3. If they subsidize the tariffs or buy more US products, they have to take on more debt. They can address the debt by printing more money, but that leads to inflation. This creates a race to the bottom effect that lowers living standards, encourages capital flight, and discourages economic activity (since why work if your labor is worth less every day?)

The end result for most countries will be (2) or (3). Either you participate in your own deindustrialization or you accept run away inflation. Wait, you say, doesn't this mean the US wins? Well, no, because a country can only contribute to the US what it has. If the US's "partners" end up ruined, then so will the US's plan to exploit them for its transition.

And that is, effectively, what China has to ensure. It has to ensure that the US's "partners" have no life line by which they can both appease the US and keep their economies strong. It's no wonder, to this end, that the US mainstream media is using reverse psychology to try and bait China into filling in for the US as the global demand engine, right now. It's because that's the only way Trump's plan actually works and doesn't result in a global depression.

Yeah it could be all that, or maybe people ascribe something deeper to Trump and his cabinet than is warranted. Occam's Razor says that one day Musk walks into Trump's office and introduces Grok to him. Trump plays around on his new toy, maybe asks it wtf he should be doing next. Grok and Trump work together to somehow come up with a list of tariffs. Trumps is very happy and executes the plan. How about this version of events? Totally implausible?

 

[Michael90]

The morning news has been quoting Trump that a TikTok deal is imminent. Yeah he's said that before on everything else. They even are now saying they might let China still control the algorithm with a minority stake. That's how it is now. But you know Trump he'll spin something that's no different from before out to be the greatest deal for the US ever like with NAFTA. Yeah before they were talking about only US side of TikTok owned by an American. Now they're saying the world except for China. That ain't worth just $30 billion like bidders are putting out there. It's worth more than its said $300 billion but China should for fun bait them and say a trillion dollars. You'd figure China's retaliatory tariffs today would've had Trump say Fu*k TikTok! But he's extending the reprieve another 75 days? If a deal is imminent, then you don't need 75 more days. The news even mentioning that TikTok has confirmed there's been talks. Yeah it goes something like this... The US: I want to buy TikTok. China: No! Yeah that can be spun as there's been talks.

Lol seriously, i dont even know what's the big deal with Tiktok. Its just a social media app which makes teenagers and young people addicted and bizarre. Not sure why all this media frenzy about Tiktok. If they want to ban it then just do it its no big deal. Wouldnt affect the country much in anyway. Other countried have banned it before and it didnt change anything. This social media thing is overhype.

 

[HighGround]

I’ve been screaming into my pillow for the last 36 hours btw.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

And the Chinese peasants won the Chinese civil war on the mainland, by surrounding the cities from the villages. So there's that.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1908287394333548942

 

[GodRektsNoobs]

And the Chinese peasants won the Chinese civil war on the mainland, by surrounding the cities from the villages. So there's that.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1908287394333548942

To be honest, he too is a son of drugged-up Appalachian peasants. And apparently he is proud of that judging from his memoir. Maybe that's the most relatable term he could come up with?