Trump 2.0 official thread

[siegecrossbow]

Actually used DeepSeek to translate the article→ Took too long to organize→ Went to grab a meal→ Already posted it here by you

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ANYWAYS, here's traslate for non-chinese audience:

Author: Yamato Hasegawa
Source: Zhihu (Chinese Q&A platform)
Link:

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While browsing today, I stumbled upon a report written last November (2024) by Stephen Milan, former chair of Trump's Council of Economic Advisers, analyzing the 2018 trade war and proposing follow-up strategies. After skimming through it, I was simultaneously shocked and enlightened - suddenly, Trump's recent outrageous economic maneuvers made perfect sense. Below I've attached the original document for those interested in primary sources.

Here's a simplified breakdown of the report's key arguments that explain "Trumpconomics" in action:



Preface, Summary
Stephen Milan argues that Trump successfully pressured China into making concessions (or, as implied in the report, "kowtowing") during the 2018 trade war, benefiting the U.S. Meanwhile, China's economy would be utterly unable to withstand higher tariffs, so in the future (from the perspective of 2024, i.e., now), merely brandishing the tariff stick would again force China to "kowtow" and absorb the costs for MAGA, with no meaningful retaliation from China expected.

1. Why Aren’t Trump and His Team Worried About Inflation?
Milan cites a concept called Currency Offset (p. 13). In simple terms, by imposing tariffs, the exporting country is forced to devalue its currency to maintain export volumes, while monetary policy measures are used to strengthen the domestic currency. The resulting exchange rate differential offsets the inflationary impact of tariffs, with the added benefit of federal revenue from the tariffs.

The report claims that after the 2018-19 tariffs, import prices rose by only 4.1%, and CPI increased by just 2%, below the Federal Reserve's target (p. 14).

It also states that under a 10% tariff, the impact on CPI would be a one-time increase of 0.3%-1%, not leading to sustained inflation (p. 16).



Therefore, Trump and his team are not concerned about tariffs causing inflation—even if there is any, it would only be "temporary."

2. Why Do Trump and His Team Believe the Cost of Tariffs Will Be Borne by the Exporting Country?

Direct quote from the original text:



Thus, Trump and his team stubbornly believe that the cost of tariffs will be borne by the exporting country (China).

3. Why Do Trump and His Team Think China Will "Kowtow" Again This Time?
Or, in other words: Why are Trump and his team so convinced that China will inevitably "call" and come to the negotiating table to strike a deal?

Direct quote from the utterly absurd original text:



Thus, Trump and his team are convinced that China will inevitably "kowtow" again this time, and that they will soon receive a call from Beijing—because they believe China's "fragile" economy cannot withstand even the initial 34% tariffs.

So when China announced equivalent countermeasures, Trump's first reaction was shock and disbelief, dismissing it as the "Chinese" bluffing. He immediately fell back on his old playbook of maximum pressure, boasting that "the call from China will come any moment now." But clearly, he miscalculated.

4. What Kind of Deal Do Trump and His Team Want to Reach?
In the report, Milan proposed several schemes for China to "compensate" the U.S., likely reflecting the kind of "deal" Trump hoped to extract from China. Below are some of the most representative examples for your consideration.


Additional Demands
The report also proposes requiring China to:

1. • Replace standard U.S. Treasury holdings with century bonds
   • Place these under custody in U.S. Treasury-managed portfolios

In essence, these are the kind of "agreements" that would condemn any signatory to centuries of historical infamy - such blatant financial bullying thoroughly discredits all appeasement arguments.

LMFAO did the boomers eat too much lead paint wallpaper as children? This level of ignorance is astounding.

 

[BillRamengod]

LMFAO did the boomers eat too much lead paint wallpaper as children? This level of ignorance is astounding.

And the ridiculous data he quoted was originally from the FLG think tank, Like the total debt in the Chinese economy exceeds 350% of GDP.

 

[siegecrossbow]

And the ridiculous data he quoted was originally from the FLG think tank.

Maybe he should cut his belly open and check if he has a rotating wheelie in there next.

 

[zscstephen]

Actually used DeepSeek to translate the article→ Took too long to organize→ Went to grab a meal→ Already posted it here by you

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

ANYWAYS, here's traslate for non-chinese audience:

Author: Yamato Hasegawa
Source: Zhihu (Chinese Q&A platform)
Link:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

While browsing today, I stumbled upon a report written last November (2024) by Stephen Milan, former chair of Trump's Council of Economic Advisers, analyzing the 2018 trade war and proposing follow-up strategies. After skimming through it, I was simultaneously shocked and enlightened - suddenly, Trump's recent outrageous economic maneuvers made perfect sense. Below I've attached the original document for those interested in primary sources.

Here's a simplified breakdown of the report's key arguments that explain "Trumpconomics" in action:



Preface, Summary
Stephen Milan argues that Trump successfully pressured China into making concessions (or, as implied in the report, "kowtowing") during the 2018 trade war, benefiting the U.S. Meanwhile, China's economy would be utterly unable to withstand higher tariffs, so in the future (from the perspective of 2024, i.e., now), merely brandishing the tariff stick would again force China to "kowtow" and absorb the costs for MAGA, with no meaningful retaliation from China expected.

1. Why Aren’t Trump and His Team Worried About Inflation?
Milan cites a concept called Currency Offset (p. 13). In simple terms, by imposing tariffs, the exporting country is forced to devalue its currency to maintain export volumes, while monetary policy measures are used to strengthen the domestic currency. The resulting exchange rate differential offsets the inflationary impact of tariffs, with the added benefit of federal revenue from the tariffs.

The report claims that after the 2018-19 tariffs, import prices rose by only 4.1%, and CPI increased by just 2%, below the Federal Reserve's target (p. 14).

It also states that under a 10% tariff, the impact on CPI would be a one-time increase of 0.3%-1%, not leading to sustained inflation (p. 16).



Therefore, Trump and his team are not concerned about tariffs causing inflation—even if there is any, it would only be "temporary."

2. Why Do Trump and His Team Believe the Cost of Tariffs Will Be Borne by the Exporting Country?

Direct quote from the original text:



Thus, Trump and his team stubbornly believe that the cost of tariffs will be borne by the exporting country (China).

3. Why Do Trump and His Team Think China Will "Kowtow" Again This Time?
Or, in other words: Why are Trump and his team so convinced that China will inevitably "call" and come to the negotiating table to strike a deal?

Direct quote from the utterly absurd original text:




Thus, Trump and his team are convinced that China will inevitably "kowtow" again this time, and that they will soon receive a call from Beijing—because they believe China's "fragile" economy cannot withstand even the initial 34% tariffs.

So when China announced equivalent countermeasures, Trump's first reaction was shock and disbelief, dismissing it as the "Chinese" bluffing. He immediately fell back on his old playbook of maximum pressure, boasting that "the call from China will come any moment now." But clearly, he miscalculated.

4. What Kind of Deal Do Trump and His Team Want to Reach?
In the report, Milan proposed several schemes for China to "compensate" the U.S., likely reflecting the kind of "deal" Trump hoped to extract from China. Below are some of the most representative examples for your consideration.


Additional Demands
The report also proposes requiring China to:

• Replace standard U.S. Treasury holdings with century bonds
• Place these under custody in U.S. Treasury-managed portfolios

In essence, these are the kind of "agreements" that would condemn any signatory to centuries of historical infamy - such blatant financial bullying thoroughly discredits all appeasement arguments.

 

[GZDRefugee]

LMFAO did the boomers eat too much lead paint wallpaper as children? This level of ignorance is astounding.

I swear we talked about how leaded gasoline emissions resulted in brain damage for the entire boomer generation.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

Chinese "sweatshops": Makes luxury bags, attires and shoes for Western luxury brand companies, gets paid 10$ for each bag made

Western luxury brand companies: Sells those luxury bags, attires and shoes for 100+$ each

Trump: "No China, those sweatshops of yours must be moved to the US. I'll be taxing all your stuff 145%"

Chinese "sweatshops": "Dear Muricans, do you know that your luxury brand companies are paying us 10$ to make those luxury bags, attires and shoes while selling you 100+$? You know you can just buy those same luxury stuffs directly from us for 14.5$ right? At most you get the 20-30$ price tags with all the transportation + customs fees included"

Just one of the many examples out there:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1911312888997859412

You know, I seriously believe that this is a prime time for China to shine to completely shatter the "muh Chicoms only make cheap poor quality stuff" misconceptions. China should start producing renowned luxury brands to openly and directly compete with those Western ones down the drain.

 

[Eventine]

China should only accept negotiating with the US after Vance apologizes for his "Chinese peasants" comment. otherwise forget it. we have seen during the Covid pandemic that the Manufacturer has the upper hand not the importer. during Covid American states were the ones trying to outbid each other to buy stuff from China. if the US was in China's position Trump would have been saying "they are kissing my a** to buy venilators & PPE from me." but of course China has enough decency and self respect that they wouldn't say something like that.

I’m sorry, but that’s childish.

Why would you NOT want people to say what they actually think about you? Vance should be rewarded for his mask off moment.

There is literally negative value attached to an insincere apology. Never interrupt your opponent while they’re being honest.

 

[Mt1701d]

Actually used DeepSeek to translate the article→ Took too long to organize→ Went to grab a meal→ Already posted it here by you

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

ANYWAYS, here's traslate for non-chinese audience:

Author: Yamato Hasegawa
Source: Zhihu (Chinese Q&A platform)
Link:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

While browsing today, I stumbled upon a report written last November (2024) by Stephen Milan, former chair of Trump's Council of Economic Advisers, analyzing the 2018 trade war and proposing follow-up strategies. After skimming through it, I was simultaneously shocked and enlightened - suddenly, Trump's recent outrageous economic maneuvers made perfect sense. Below I've attached the original document for those interested in primary sources.

Here's a simplified breakdown of the report's key arguments that explain "Trumpconomics" in action:



Preface, Summary
Stephen Milan argues that Trump successfully pressured China into making concessions (or, as implied in the report, "kowtowing") during the 2018 trade war, benefiting the U.S. Meanwhile, China's economy would be utterly unable to withstand higher tariffs, so in the future (from the perspective of 2024, i.e., now), merely brandishing the tariff stick would again force China to "kowtow" and absorb the costs for MAGA, with no meaningful retaliation from China expected.

1. Why Aren’t Trump and His Team Worried About Inflation?
Milan cites a concept called Currency Offset (p. 13). In simple terms, by imposing tariffs, the exporting country is forced to devalue its currency to maintain export volumes, while monetary policy measures are used to strengthen the domestic currency. The resulting exchange rate differential offsets the inflationary impact of tariffs, with the added benefit of federal revenue from the tariffs.

The report claims that after the 2018-19 tariffs, import prices rose by only 4.1%, and CPI increased by just 2%, below the Federal Reserve's target (p. 14).

It also states that under a 10% tariff, the impact on CPI would be a one-time increase of 0.3%-1%, not leading to sustained inflation (p. 16).



Therefore, Trump and his team are not concerned about tariffs causing inflation—even if there is any, it would only be "temporary."

2. Why Do Trump and His Team Believe the Cost of Tariffs Will Be Borne by the Exporting Country?

Direct quote from the original text:



Thus, Trump and his team stubbornly believe that the cost of tariffs will be borne by the exporting country (China).

3. Why Do Trump and His Team Think China Will "Kowtow" Again This Time?
Or, in other words: Why are Trump and his team so convinced that China will inevitably "call" and come to the negotiating table to strike a deal?

Direct quote from the utterly absurd original text:




Thus, Trump and his team are convinced that China will inevitably "kowtow" again this time, and that they will soon receive a call from Beijing—because they believe China's "fragile" economy cannot withstand even the initial 34% tariffs.

So when China announced equivalent countermeasures, Trump's first reaction was shock and disbelief, dismissing it as the "Chinese" bluffing. He immediately fell back on his old playbook of maximum pressure, boasting that "the call from China will come any moment now." But clearly, he miscalculated.

4. What Kind of Deal Do Trump and His Team Want to Reach?
In the report, Milan proposed several schemes for China to "compensate" the U.S., likely reflecting the kind of "deal" Trump hoped to extract from China. Below are some of the most representative examples for your consideration.


Additional Demands
The report also proposes requiring China to:

• Replace standard U.S. Treasury holdings with century bonds
• Place these under custody in U.S. Treasury-managed portfolios

In essence, these are the kind of "agreements" that would condemn any signatory to centuries of historical infamy - such blatant financial bullying thoroughly discredits all appeasement arguments.

The sheer imagination in this report is incredible. Maybe Stephen Miran should change careers to be a fiction writer instead, this report proves his writing chops, he shouldn’t have any problem like writer’s block.

 

[GZDRefugee]

Chinese "sweatshops": Makes luxury bags, attires and shoes for Western luxury brand companies, gets paid 10$ for each bag made

Western luxury brand companies: Sells those luxury bags, attires and shoes for 100+$ each

Trump: "No China, those sweatshops of yours must be moved to the US. I'll be taxing all your stuff 145%"

Chinese "sweatshops": "Dear Muricans, do you know that your luxury brand companies are paying us 10$ to make those luxury bags, attires and shoes while selling you 100+$? You know you can just buy those same luxury stuffs directly from us for 14.5$ right? At most you get the 20-30$ price tags with all the transportation + customs fees included"

Just one of the many examples out there:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1911312888997859412

You know, I seriously believe that this is a prime time for China to shine to completely shatter the "muh Chicoms only make cheap poor quality stuff" misconceptions. China should start producing renowned luxury brands to openly and directly compete with those Western ones down the drain.

Nooo! I already have a hard enough time competing against mainland shoppers on 11/11.

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

Chinese "sweatshops": Makes luxury bags, attires and shoes for Western luxury brand companies, gets paid 10$ for each bag made

Western luxury brand companies: Sells those luxury bags, attires and shoes for 100+$ each

Trump: "No China, those sweatshops of yours must be moved to the US. I'll be taxing all your stuff 145%"

Chinese "sweatshops": "Dear Muricans, do you know that your luxury brand companies are paying us 10$ to make those luxury bags, attires and shoes while selling you 100+$? You know you can just buy those same luxury stuffs directly from us for 14.5$ right? At most you get the 20-30$ price tags with all the transportation + customs fees included"

Just one of the many examples out there:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1911312888997859412

You know, I seriously believe that this is a prime time for China to shine to completely shatter the "muh Chicoms only make cheap poor quality stuff" misconceptions. China should start producing renowned luxury brands to openly and directly compete with those Western ones down the drain.

What if I told you that the majority of the folks that were making Canada's pride a.k.a. Canada Goose Jackets were made by Asians (Chinese and other Asians) in Canada? Their pay was low a.k.a. minimum wage and yet they sold their crap at a very premium price.