Trade War with China

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Equation

Lieutenant General
When will this end?
Simple, when both countries stop trading with each other.

That's best case scenerio.

The other scenerio is Trump seeing China not backing down economically and China with $3 TRILLION foreign reserve and holding almost $1 TRILLION in US debt (which gives China $35 billion interest a year) while US is $20 TRILLION in debt, at the same time harping threats at allies and foes alike, soon he will realize this fight is lost cause in this arena.

As Trump is a sore-loser type, he will go for the miliary option next. This is the reason why SCS is getting hotter by the day. Next you will see 5 CVBG/CSG patrolling close to China's coast (maybe even Taiwan strait) and B-52s skirting the edge of Chinese coast. He will be provoking China to go into an actual war for he lost a economic one he will try to win it back militarily. NOW this scenerio is highly likely - I would even say it has the chance of happening 8.5 out of 10 knowing Trump does not listen to ANYONE except himself.

The other scenerio is Trump will press all the buttons that hurts China because he will use ANYTHING that gives him leverage in a trade negotiation/war. I think Taiwan is one big red button he will press over and over and over in an infinite variations he can do there. He can start selling or even giving away weapons to Taiwan for example - M1A2s, F-35As & Bs, Arleigh Burkes... or he can ask Taiwan to allow US forces to have bases there, and lastly start recognizing Taiwan as a country and entry into UN. All these are buttons Trump can press with progressively bigger repercussions but it will all end with China losing Taiwan.

The reality is China is far from a push over but is still not able to win a war against US, let along when Trump provoked China to attack Taiwan, it will be Gulf-War 1 style alliances with everyone rallied around US to fight China. It is a fight China will lose and China knows that and will avoid that path no matter what, so one way or another when Trump start pressing those Taiwan buttons you will see China start folding.

How come your ideas are always straight up insane? Yesterday, you said this would directly lead to all of America's trade partners abandoning it and forming a Sino-centric global trade order. Today, you think it's gonna result in the US pressing for WWIII or using Taiwan threats causing China to fold?? All that change in 1 day? LOL
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LOL The US doesn't dictate what countries the UN recognizes. Taiwan's never going to be independent because it's too close to Mainland for any other force to fight against the PRC for it (not that many want to). Lobbyists, other branches of government, big corporations will assassinate if not impeach Trump before he causes a cessation of trade with China or provokes WWIII for his own ego. It's one thing to try to shake things up on trade potentially causing gains, but likely causing losses (both in a reversible fashion) but it's a whole new dimension when you draw 330 million American lives into a potential nuclear conflict. You don't provoke war with large, nuclear countries; that's a rule that everyone follows and Trump will too if he doesn't want to meet Kennedy.

This is probably going to end with either talks remedying the situation or this being Trump's last term and talks with the next president to make everything normal again.

One possible positive endgame for the US, though, is that Trump is so unreasonable and nasty that he sets up the next incoming US president to make much easier deals by apologizing for Trump and going back on just half or 2/3rds of what Trump was asking for and everyone praises him for being a good guy and signs with him. This would be a net gain for the US in the long term (after the short term turbulence and loss with Trump) that might not have been doable without a rocky era. But, other countries, especially China, can also say, "We'll ease up the same percent by which you ease up." and lead to an evening out, so we'll see.
cleardot.gif
 
How come your ideas are always straight up insane? Yesterday, you said this would directly lead to all of America's trade partners abandoning it and forming a Sino-centric global trade order. Today, you think it's gonna result in the US pressing for WWIII or using Taiwan threats causing China to fold?? All that change in 1 day? LOL
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


LOL The US doesn't dictate what countries the UN recognizes. Taiwan's never going to be independent because it's too close to Mainland for any other force to fight against the PRC for it (not that many want to). Lobbyists, other branches of government, big corporations will assassinate if not impeach Trump before he causes a cessation of trade with China or provokes WWIII for his own ego. It's one thing to try to shake things up on trade potentially causing gains, but likely causing losses (both in a reversible fashion) but it's a whole new dimension when you draw 330 million American lives into a potential nuclear conflict. You don't provoke war with large, nuclear countries; that's a rule that everyone follows and Trump will too if he doesn't want to meet Kennedy.

This is probably going to end with either talks remedying the situation or this being Trump's last term and talks with the next president to make everything normal again.

One possible positive endgame for the US, though, is that Trump is so unreasonable and nasty that he sets up the next incoming US president to make much easier deals by apologizing for Trump and going back on just half or 2/3rds of what Trump was asking for and everyone praises him for being a good guy and signs with him. This would be a net gain for the US in the long term (after the short term turbulence and loss with Trump) that might not have been doable without a rocky era. But, other countries, especially China, can also say, "We'll ease up the same percent by which you ease up." and lead to an evening out, so we'll see.
cleardot.gif
LOL! bro Secret Service should get ready
 
now I read
Senior Chinese official calls on US to 'properly manage sensitive issues'
2018-06-17 11:55 GMT+8
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Wang Chen, a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, visited the United States from June 13 to 16 at the invitation of the US Congress to promote bilateral ties.

Wang, also vice chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPC), met separately with US House of Representatives Speaker Paul Ryan, president pro tempore of the Senate Orrin Hatch, and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, among other officials.

In the meetings, Wang dwelt on China's principles and positions on issues of trade and economy, intellectual property rights, and related legislation, among others, expressing the hope that Washington could treat the China-US relations from the perspective of a strategic and overall picture and properly manage sensitive issues and differences.

The two sides should stick to mutual respect and win-win cooperation, Wang said, urging to strengthen communication, mutual trust and collaboration between legislative bodies of the two countries.

The US side said it attached great importance to the development of US-China relations and was ready to enhance exchanges to increase mutual understanding and cooperation.

In his four-day trip, Wang also visited Boston, where he met with lawmakers of the state of Massachusetts, and held talks with scholars of Tufts University.
 
now I read
Mercantilist policies may disadvantage US energy export: report
2018-06-17 16:25 GMT+8
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Mercantilist policies could significantly hamper the United States' position as a global energy exporter, according to a new report.

The United States should carefully consider "the negative consequences of retreating from multilateral and bilateral free trade policies," the report published by Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy in Houston, Texas, on Friday said.

Titled "Energy Over the Next 20 Years: It's Not All About the US," the report says it is the developing world, not the developed countries, that will be the driver of global energy growth in the 21st century.

Thanks to the "shale revolution," the United States is well on its way to becoming the world's top oil and gas producer and a major exporter of both products.

The report suggests that US policymakers and stakeholders should take into account the fact that the future of the US fossil fuel sector will increasingly depend on foreign demand.

The report was published on the day the US government unveiled plans to impose additional 25 percent tariffs on Chinese goods worth around 50 billion US dollars, the latest unilateral move that could provoke a trade war between the world's top two economies and damage the global economy and trading system.

China expressed its firm opposition to the new tariffs after the Office of the US Trade Representative published a list of Chinese goods subject to them.

A spokesperson of China's Ministry of Commerce said Friday that although China does not want a trade war, it will fight back forcefully to safeguard the interests of the nation and its people, and uphold economic globalization and the multilateral trading system.
 

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
A CNN article
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In it, there is a part regarding the Qualcomm purchase of NXP. The article quoted Paul Triolo's view on the matter which is the opinion I have been making in this thread. Qualcomm is and should be kept the hostage of ZTE solution. And further more, the "Toshiba selling semiconductor division to (American) Brain Capital" should also be kept hostage if Toshiba and Brain Capital do not give up.

Let's see how it will develop.

P.S. the revealed points of the deal that 1) ZTE to reshuffle the board, 2) insert American official for compliance and 3) pay further fines are NOT acceptable. The damage to ZTE should be taken from somewhere else, one way or another, the two hostages are good candidates for the compensation.

The deal is likely to be stuck on regulatory hold a bit longer, according to Paul Triolo, who specializes in global technology policy at Eurasia Group.

Approval for the merger has been linked to US relief for ZTE (
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), the Chinese phone and telecom equipment maker that was crippled by a US export ban issued earlier this spring. The Trump administration earlier this month
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with ZTE, but the agreement to save the company has faced resistance from lawmakers in Congress, who argue the ban should stay in place because ZTE poses a security threat.

"There is still a desire on both sides to remove both the ZTE and Qualcomm [deals] from the already complex equation, but political pressures on both sides, and a serious escalatory spiral in the relationship, could spell trouble for both deals," Triolo said.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Now here is a sensible article by realist and fair author
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Iron Law of History Blunts China Trade Folly
The U.S. may find a lesson in the rise of its own steel industry.

By
David Fickling
June 17, 2018, 2:00 AM CDT
1000x-1.jpg

The skyscrapers of New York might have struggled to rise if forced to depend on imported British steel. Photographer: ullstein bild/Getty Images
Who invented modern steel?

It’s a 160-year-old controversy
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– and the answer, in a way, lies at the heart of the current U.S.-Chinese trade tensions.

Many Americans are taught that the originator was William Kelly, whose ironworks in Eddyville, Kentucky was among the first to produce the metal. In the U.K. and elsewhere, credit generally goes to Henry Bessemer, who obtained the first patents for a mass production process that’s used in modified form to this day
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.

As with the battles between Alexander Graham Bell and Elisha Gray concerning the telephone and those between Nikola Tesla and Guglielmo Marconi over the development of radio, everyone wants to take credit for a world-changing invention.

Metal Machine Music
The U.S. decisively overtook Great Britain in terms of steel output in the late 19th century
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
upload_2018-6-17_19-4-32.jpeg

While the truth falls more on Bessemer’s side
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, it’s worth trying to imagine how the world might have turned out if 19th century Britain had taken the same road in relation to technology and national development that 21st century America is headed down now.

President Donald Trump’s planned list of tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese goods will home in on technologies where China wants to establish itself as a leader, five people familiar with the matter
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last week.

The core of the dispute is Beijing’s Made in China 2025 program, a roadmap to upgrade the country’s abilities in high-tech manufacturing. The plan attracted
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and
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when it was
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in the wake of a
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, but it’s now taken on talismanic qualities in Washington. Made in China 2025 was mentioned more than 100 times in the
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on alleged violations of U.S. intellectual property, where it was characterized as part of a suite of policies that threaten the competitiveness of American industry.

upload_2018-6-17_19-1-43.jpegSource: Google Trends

Let’s imagine that the government of Victorian England, instead of allowing Bessemer to license his process to the likes of Andrew Carnegie, had managed to kill off the nascent U.S. steel industry and insisted the country import from the British Isles instead.

The transcontinental railroad, which opened up the food bowls of the U.S. prairies and helped feed the world in the late 19th century, might never have been viable with more costly metal shipped across the Atlantic. George Westinghouse, who got his start in industry building brakes for rail cars, might not have had the capital to invest in the development of mass electrification. Forced to depend on expensive British-made structural beams, the skyscrapers of Chicago and New York might never have risen.

It seems a ridiculous counterfactual, but it’s only so because the idea of denying China a place at the high-tech table is equally ridiculous. It’s only natural for a country that’s becoming (and in many respects already is) the biggest consumer of
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to want to develop more homegrown expertise. That’s especially so given China’s fears of getting
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.

America in the 19th century was as famous for its slapdash approach to intellectual property as China is now. Before the Kelly-Bessemer dispute, Samuel Slater helped kick off the U.S. industrial revolution by memorizing details of the Derbyshire cotton milling process. He then
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to get around British laws intended to stop foreign powers acquiring its technological expertise. Charles Dickens, too, spent much of his 1842 trip to the U.S. agitating for copyright laws to prevent the bootlegging of his works by American publishers.


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, a less confrontational approach is far more likely to bear fruit – one that takes advantage of Beijing’s own desire to improve handling of intellectual property and
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.

Soft Power
Services make up more than three-quarters of gross domestic product in the U.S., in common with most rich countries

upload_2018-6-17_19-3-5.jpeg

Opposition to the spread of technology is a short-sighted way to confront China’s economic rise. Despite some pockets of highly sophisticated manufacturing, services make up more than three-quarters of America’s gross domestic product, and aren’t likely to lose their dominance any time soon.

Even if the U.S. stood a chance of prevailing in the trade war now brewing –
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– it would be the wrong approach. America has far more to gain in the long term by trading with a more prosperous China than one that’s been stunted by an ill-advised attempt to freeze its economy in the past.


This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

  1. Modern basic oxygen furnaces, the main method for making non-recycled primary steel, largely differ from Bessemer's process by using oxygen rather than air to remove impurities from the liquid metal.

  2. Kelly’s plant made wrought iron, a quite different and lower-quality product to the steel developed by Bessemer. Kelly’s first public mention of his process came in an 1856 letter to Scientific American responding to a report of the patents that Bessemer had already received, trying to assert prior invention. An electron microscope examination of firebricks from a “Kelly converter”
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    as a crucial innovation in the history of steelmakingrevealed that no useful metal had ever been made in it, and the converter was later removed from exhibition.

    “The Kelly story is another example of how the contents of patents were often reconstructed after the fact for financial advantage and how legends about invention can be created in the process,” Robert B. Gordon, a professor of geophysics at Yale University,
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    reporting the results of the Kelly converter study.
To contact the author of this story:
David Fickling at [email protected]
 
D

Deleted member 13312

Guest
China and Japan can't sell all of their debt holdings in one go. Doing that would immediately crash the US's debt value seeing as these 2 are among the largest foreign holders of US debts, making so that what they get in return could very well end up less for what they bought for. It's kinda like a share market. The best way forward would be to sell of their holdings piece by piece.
But the simple act of either China and Japan stopping to buy US debt would be enough to send the whole cycle into a tailspin.
 
To be clear none of the major economies are going to crash and burn due to any of these actions, even with the yet to be executed escalation steps, but the damage done is to international trust, co-operation, and any business or business sentiment that is based on that.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Here we go again another round of tariff and of course the counter punch from China It is trade war let it rip
Trump threatens to slap new tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods
John Fritze, USA TODAY Published 8:17 p.m. ET June 18, 2018
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President Donald Trump is calling for Russia to be reinstated to the leading group of industrialized nations, now known as the Group of Seven. (June 8) AP

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COMMENTEMAILMORE
WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump on Monday threatened to slap another round of tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese products, the latest move in an escalating trade war with Beijing.

Trump said the new tariffs, which come days after his administration
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, were a response to the retaliatory trade barriers the Chinese government imposed Friday.

Trump said the latest round of tariffs — which he set at 10 percent — will go into effect if Beijing moves forward with its own import restrictions. The administration did not say Monday which products it would target.

“This latest action by China clearly indicates its determination to keep the United States at a permanent and unfair disadvantage,” Trump said in a statement released by the White House on Friday. “This is unacceptable.”

The decision was
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. Trump said in his statement Monday that the U.S. is prepared to pursue tariffs on another $200 billion of goods if China retaliates again.

“The trade relationship between the United States and China must be much more equitable,” Trump said.

On Friday, the Trump administration slapped a 25 percent tariff on $50 billion of Chinese-made products. In all, 818 products representing $34 billion in U.S. imports would fall under the first round of duties. The White House said an additional 284 products were under review.

The announcement Friday drew an immediate response from Beijing, which said it would move forward with its own tariffs. China vowed to place new, 25 percent tariffs on more than 500 U.S. products, including soybeans, electric cars and orange juice.

The trade disputes between China and the U.S. has been escalating for months. In April, China raised import duties on a $3 billion list of U.S. products that include pork and apples. Chinese officials have threatened further retaliation, stoking fears of trade war between the two countries.
 
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