Trade War with China

Status
Not open for further replies.

KIENCHIN

Junior Member
Registered Member
That's exactly what I thought. The figure was even less than 18 percent (like 15 %?) in the last quarter.

It's a myth they are trying to create that foreign companies are moving out of China en masse. Big propaganda happens a lot nowadays on some western news sources such as Bloomberg.

Some of them wouldn't be bothered with shifting as the initial cost of building a new factory and training new personnel would be enormous in comparison to the 25% tariffs. Not to mention the inherently higher cost of supply chain compared to China that has made them choose China as its location in the first place - a decision that is entirely a result of a profitable business decision and not a decision based first on force and coercion.
Think about the growing Chinese consumer market and that is why these companies are there in the first place. The company i work for is now focusing on the greater bay area for the next big growth story
 

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
Think about the growing Chinese consumer market and that is why these companies are there in the first place. The company i work for is now focusing on the greater bay area for the next big growth story

I think another take on the situation is this:
China's economy and wages are growing rapidly, comparably, in terms of purchasing power. Whatever excess industrial capacity resulting from the tariffs might be absorbed by Chinese consumers in the next few years. It might not be worth it to shift the existing supply chain in that case.

In 10-15 years, China's economy will double again if it policies remain good. Excess production can always be sold, it's just a matter of distribution and pricing.

The US, on the other hand, risks losing the Chinese market for its goods. The US has no room to grow domestically other than by debt. ex last year GDP was 5% nominal, debt 6%. We shall see how willing the Chinese people are in abandoning Western goods from now on. We shall see.

Also, China should not place retaliative tariffs since it's a tax on the consumers and doesn't do much damage to the US probably in most sectors. The people should just organize their own boycotts since Chinese have replacements for most of the products while American's don't.
 

Gatekeeper

Brigadier
Registered Member
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


"..There will be nobody left in China to do business with. Very bad for China, very good for USA! But China has taken so advantage of the U.S. for so many years, that they are way ahead (Our Presidents did not do the job). Therefore, China should not retaliate-will only get worse!"

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

"We are right where we want to be with China. Remember, they broke the deal with us & tried to renegotiate. We will be taking in Tens of Billions of Dollars in Tariffs from China. Buyers of product can make it themselves in the USA (ideal), or buy it from non-Tariffed countries..."
 

Gatekeeper

Brigadier
Registered Member
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


"..There will be nobody left in China to do business with. Very bad for China, very good for USA! But China has taken so advantage of the U.S. for so many years, that they are way ahead (Our Presidents did not do the job). Therefore, China should not retaliate-will only get worse!"

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

"We are right where we want to be with China. Remember, they broke the deal with us & tried to renegotiate. We will be taking in Tens of Billions of Dollars in Tariffs from China. Buyers of product can make it themselves in the USA (ideal), or buy it from non-Tariffed countries..."

Sorry guys, the previous was posted in errors without comments

These two tweets takes the biscuits, and there have many, (like taking credits for the red sox's recent performance)!

1st, this is typical bully behaviour (and he's class act in this regard). He is basically like a school bullt, saying "I can hit you, and no matter how many and how hard I hit you. You can't or better not hit back, because I'm going to hurt you some more"!

2nd, this sorts of contradict himself. Because if in his mind, that tariffs is good, and China is paying for it. Then why would US buyers want to buy from a non-tariff countries or produce goods at home. Surely, all the time China is paying, it make sense to keep buying from China, rather than loose the "China paying tariff". Because in this case, it make no difference to the consumer who makes it, and at the same time, the US is "making billions from tariffs extracted from those cheating Chinese!
 

Cypher

New Member
Registered Member
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


"..There will be nobody left in China to do business with. Very bad for China, very good for USA! But China has taken so advantage of the U.S. for so many years, that they are way ahead (Our Presidents did not do the job). Therefore, China should not retaliate-will only get worse!"

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

"We are right where we want to be with China. Remember, they broke the deal with us & tried to renegotiate. We will be taking in Tens of Billions of Dollars in Tariffs from China. Buyers of product can make it themselves in the USA (ideal), or buy it from non-Tariffed countries..."

Now it's almost like a 21th-century version of The Emperor's New Clothes, I don't understand what is Trump's ultimate goal for this trade war, and I begin to believe even himself has no idea what is he doing...
 

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
Exactly why many of us said no deal initially. Even if there was a deal you’re letting them know that the tsctic works and they’ll keep doing it. Politicians and businessmen are bred from bullies, liars, cheats, and thieves
 
Last edited:

solarz

Brigadier
Sorry guys, the previous was posted in errors without comments

These two tweets takes the biscuits, and there have many, (like taking credits for the red sox's recent performance)!

1st, this is typical bully behaviour (and he's class act in this regard). He is basically like a school bullt, saying "I can hit you, and no matter how many and how hard I hit you. You can't or better not hit back, because I'm going to hurt you some more"!

2nd, this sorts of contradict himself. Because if in his mind, that tariffs is good, and China is paying for it. Then why would US buyers want to buy from a non-tariff countries or produce goods at home. Surely, all the time China is paying, it make sense to keep buying from China, rather than loose the "China paying tariff". Because in this case, it make no difference to the consumer who makes it, and at the same time, the US is "making billions from tariffs extracted from those cheating Chinese!

Trump will say what he wants to say.

I said this when he was first elected: Trump has run six businesses into bankruptcy. It's increasingly looking like he's going to run the US into bankruptcy as well.
 

Nutrient

Junior Member
Registered Member
Export to the US only consists of 18% of total Chinese export (
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
- China shipped 18 percent of its exports to the United States in 2018.)

Also, according to the
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, in 2017 China's total exports accounted for less than 20% of GDP. So exports to the U.S. amount to 18% of 20%, or 3.6% of GDP. Even if the whole 3.6% should stay in China (which is not so likely), the excess goods could easily be absorbed by a small rise in the country's internal consumption.

I doubt anyone is going to move the entire production line out of China because 20% of the production is being tariff. Companies keep their production lines in China for a reason. The more likely scenario is companies will move a small percentage of the final assembly to other countries to avoid the US tariff. The rest of the production will continue in China as before

Agree.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top