Trade War with China

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ZeEa5KPul

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now I read
Exclusive: U.S. waters down demand China ax subsidies in push for trade deal - sources
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WASHINGTON/BEIJING (Reuters) - U.S. negotiators have tempered demands that China curb industrial subsidies as a condition for a trade deal after strong resistance from Beijing, according to two sources briefed on discussions, marking a retreat on a core U.S. objective for the trade talks.

The world's two biggest economies are nine months into a trade war that has cost billions of dollars, roiled financial markets and upended supply chains.

U.S. President Donald Trump's administration has slapped tariffs on $250 billion worth of imports of Chinese goods to press demands for an end to policies - including industrial subsidies - that Washington says hurt U.S. companies competing with Chinese firms. China responded with its own tit-for-tat tariffs on U.S. goods.

The issue of industrial subsidies is thorny because they are intertwined with the Chinese government's industrial policy. Beijing grants subsidies and tax breaks to state-owned firms and to sectors seen as strategic for long-term development. Chinese President Xi Jinping has strengthened the state's role in parts of the economy.

In the push to secure a deal in the next month or so, U.S. negotiators have become resigned to securing less than they would like on curbing those subsidies and are focused instead on other areas where they consider demands are more achievable, the sources said.

Those include ending forced technology transfers, improving intellectual property protection and widening access to China's markets, the sources said. China has already given ground on those issues.

"It's not that there won't be some language on it, but it is not going to be very detailed or specific," one source familiar with the talks said in reference to the subsidies issue.

A representative for the White House referred Reuters to the U.S. Trade Representative's Office, which did not respond to a request for comment.

"If U.S. negotiators define success as changing the way China's economy operates, that will never happen," said the other source with knowledge of the trade talks.

"A deal that makes Xi look weak is not a worthwhile deal for Xi. Whatever deal we get, it's going to be better than what we've had, and it's not going to be sufficient for some people. But that's politics," that source said.

China pledged earlier this year to end market-distorting subsidies for its domestic industries but offered no details on how it would achieve that goal, three people familiar with the trade talks told Reuters in February.

MIXED MESSAGES

One of the key sticking points in the negotiations is the removal of the $250 billion in U.S. tariffs. It is broadly expected in the trade community that U.S. negotiators want to keep some tariffs on Chinese goods, which Washington sees as retaliation for the years of damage done to its economy by Beijing's unfair trade practices.

The role of the state firms may benefit the United States in another part of the trade deal. The Trump administration wants China to make big-ticket purchases of over a trillion dollars of U.S. goods in the next six years to reduce its trade surplus. The companies likely to make the purchases are the state-run firms, both sources said.

"The purchasing, for example, reinforces the role of the state sector because the purchasing is all being done through state enterprises," one of the sources said.

Another point of contention between the two countries, telecommunications, may drive China to increase the state's role rather than reduce it, the source said.

Pressure from the United States on allies to reduce cooperation with Chinese telecommunications champions such as Huawei Technologies could push the government into raising state support to develop technology at home.

DECADES OF FRICTION

Subsidies and tax breaks have been a source of friction between the two countries for years.

Washington says Beijing has failed to comply with its World Trade Organization obligations on subsidies that affect both imports and exports.

China has taken steps to address some U.S. concerns in cases brought before the WTO. It has also begun to publicly downplay its push to dominate the future of high-tech industries under its "Made in China 2025" policy, although few expect it to jettison those ambitions.
 

xiabonan

Junior Member
That's how negotiations work, each side give concessions and make compromises.

Not sure why some Americans so deeply believed they could extract whatever they want from China simply because they put some tariffs on Chinese exports.

This is not the Opium Wars and times have changed. It's not 2019, not 1840.

Maybe it's the case that the US could get whatever they want from countries like Japan or Korea or Canada or Mexico, but certainly not China. At least not today's China.
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
That's how negotiations work, each side give concessions and make compromises.

Not sure why some Americans so deeply believed they could extract whatever they want from China simply because they put some tariffs on Chinese exports.

This is not the Opium Wars and times have changed. It's not 2019, not 1840.

Maybe it's the case that the US could get whatever they want from countries like Japan or Korea or Canada or Mexico, but certainly not China. At least not today's China.

Because that's how the US "free press" a.k.a. propaganda rolls. They need to project an image of empire or else their dear leader Trump looks bad therefore their country looks bad. Not good for up coming elections especially for the MAGA crowds. Heck even the Trump administration are asking China to SWITCH tariffs away from Trump voting base such as farmers.

China is considering a U.S. request to shift some tariffs on key agricultural goods to other products so the Trump administration can sell any eventual trade deal as a win for farmers ahead of the 2020 election,people familiar with the situation said. The step would involve China moving retaliatory duties it imposed starting last July on $50 billion worth of U.S. goods to non-agricultural imports.

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Hendrik_2000

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Now this is a sensible author
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Trump’s Trade War With China Doesn’t Look Like a Win
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Noah Smith,Bloomberg 3 hours ago
d1ac8eebb574234bc8341b1ab0a6e637

Trump’s Trade War With China Doesn’t Look Like a Win
(Bloomberg Opinion) -- In March 2018, President Donald Trump uttered his famous declaration that “trade wars are good and easy to win.” A little more than a year later, it looks as if Trump is losing the trade war he started with China.

The tariffs that Trump slapped on Chinese goods -- and the additional tariffs he threatened -- may have dinged China’s economy. Most data sources indicate that Chinese growth slowed a bit in 2018. That dip could have been due to government efforts to constrain credit growth, but many believe that Trump’s tariffs hurt business confidence and slowed investment. That makes sense, since any company thinking about making their products in China would have to worry that Trump would make it hard to sell those products in the U.S. The trade war has given multinationals an incentive to accelerate their plans to shift production out of China, and has probably made Chinese companies more cautious as well:

But the U.S. was also sideswiped by the trade war. Taxing Chinese-made products raised prices for American consumers and factories alike. A pair of studies by trade economists put the losses to the U.S. economy in the tens of billions of dollars annually.

And that doesn’t count the impact of Chinese retaliation. Although the U.S. runs a trade deficit with China, it still exports almost $200 billion a year to that country. Chinese tariffs hit American farmers hard, as the country halted most imports of soybeans from the U.S.:

Inventories piled up. U.S. agricultural exports, which had been growing exponentially, started to fall, and farm incomes declined. Desperate farmers appealed to Trump for help, and he responded with a wave of direct payments to farmers. But going on the government dole isn't a sustainable business model, and a wave of farm bankruptcies has begun. So far, farmers haven’t abandoned Trump politically, but the threat is clearly there.

This demonstrates why China was always in a better position to win a trade war with the U.S. China’s autocratic regime is much less vulnerable to the shifting winds of politics than the U.S.’s democratically elected politicians. Also, China much more recently escaped from poverty, and its residents are more accustomed to enduring economic hardship. And since China is still catching up with the rest of the world, a slowdown there means going from 6.5 percent annual growth to 6 or 5.5 percent, while a slowdown in the more mature U.S. economy means a significant hit or even a halt to growth.

Trump is now beating a retreat. A trade truce with China, enacted in late 2018, left most of the U.S.’s biggest goals -- intellectual property theft, currency manipulation, forced technology transfer and access to the Chinese market -- unfulfilled. Essentially, China will buy more U.S. farm products and a few other exports, and Trump will back off. A final deal is likely to look even more like an ignominious defeat for the Trump administration.

Meanwhile, there are signs that the Chinese slowdown has bottomed out, as the government unleashes some fresh stimulus.


But tariffs are only one aspect of the trade war. Although it has been less in the public eye, the struggle to control the future of high technology is arguably even more important to the balance of economic power between the U.S. and China. And the U.S. may also be losing on this front as well.

The U.S. has recently been putting pressure on Huawei Technologies Co., China’s leading telecommunications manufacturer. It has tried to pressure American allies not to buy 5G wireless technology from the company, which some believe to be an arm of the Chinese military. American security services worry that Huawei-made 5G products would be able to spy on communications around the world. But in a big blow to that effort, Germany recently said it would not shut Huawei out.

Meanwhile, the U.S. has implemented export controls on many technology products. Many Chinese manufacturers rely on sophisticated American technology -- for example, some Chinese circuit makers rely on U.S.-made semiconductors. Export controls will hurt Chinese tech in the short term, but in the long term it could merely push China to accelerate its efforts to replicate and surpass U.S. technology. In the past, the U.S. has benefitted from retaining the high-value parts of the supply chain, even as it outsourced the lower-value parts to China. But if China becomes a technological peer, its companies will begin to compete more directly with American ones, as Japanese companies did in the 1970s and 1980s.

So Trump’s trade war is looking shaky on all fronts. His ferocious attacks inflicted some damage, but China could take the losses, and is now battling back with great effectiveness. It turns out that trade wars weren’t quite as easy to win as Trump believed.

To contact the author of this story: Noah Smith at [email protected]

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Greiff at [email protected]

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Noah Smith is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He was an assistant professor of finance at Stony Brook University, and he blogs at Noahpinion.

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©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Heck even the Trump administration are asking China to SWITCH tariffs away from Trump voting base such as farmers.
LOL I saw that too. Hilarious! It's like attacking someone but asking him to only punch back at you in the arms instead of the head cus that hurts too much. I was just like, "Who does that?"

Reminds me of the time somebody, probably Ross or Lighthizer was saying the China tariffs were meant to inflict maximum damage to China's economy while preserving America's and then went on to say that China can't stop taking recycling materials from the US because that would be too devastating to America's economy. I was just thinking these guys don't filter this crap through working brains before talking...
 

CMP

Senior Member
Registered Member
LOL I saw that too. Hilarious! It's like attacking someone but asking him to only punch back at you in the arms instead of the head cus that hurts too much. I was just like, "Who does that?"

Reminds me of the time somebody, probably Ross or Lighthizer was saying the China tariffs were meant to inflict maximum damage to China's economy while preserving America's and then went on to say that China can't stop taking recycling materials from the US because that would be too devastating to America's economy. I was just thinking these guys don't filter this crap through working brains before talking...

They have working brains?
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
Because that's how the US "free press" a.k.a. propaganda rolls. They need to project an image of empire or else their dear leader Trump looks bad therefore their country looks bad. Not good for up coming elections especially for the MAGA crowds. Heck even the Trump administration are asking China to SWITCH tariffs away from Trump voting base such as farmers.



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So China isn’t even withdrawing tariffs while US has to... China only has to buy some US goods and switch tariffs away from Trump voter base, and that’s what US mouthpieces are ready to admit... It looks like the one who will recieve an unequal treaty is themselves.

This is looking more and more like the Doklam affair. Much tough talk and speeches about attacking China. Yet it ends up with retreat and China doing the exact same thing as it did before the conflict.
 
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