Trade War with China

tidalwave said:

In fact, I find highly symmetrical between the two sides and education make it even more so.
Many of the american elites are China haters and they are highly educated. And the other side is China homers, they probably very educated too. Inherent biased and education can make it even worst. Battle of ideaology and opposite ends of a pole. Uneducated folks probably would care less and less biased more into money, sex, sports and somewhere in the middle.

US unreasonable demand of structural changes on China is spawned by educated China haters, and average uneducated American folks wouldnt care about that. They only care they can earn enough to support themselves and their family.

Like I said, its the battle of power and ideaology between two sides between the haters and homers.

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Equation said:

You are always very selective in what you want to hear. When you read the news, you specifically pick the articles that say what you want them to say no matter how unreliable the source but ignore national data and IMF/World bank official numbers. Now, you want to listen to the words of the Chinese officials? Why didn't you listen to them when they said that China's economy is stable, healthy, and can weather a trade war with no problem? Quite frankly, those statements don't even conflict as "massive damage" can be defined by some to mean a recession while to others, it means loss of $100 billion dollars. That's quite a massive loss in my book.

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localizer said:

Dude i told you to ignore him. Everything he says is off tangent and he never reads your post. He lives in his own little bubble One time he said China could have developed better. I asked him how 5 times because I was interested and every time he either ignored me or said "china could have developed better".

You should check out his thread about how China should focus on development in Xinjiang and it will fix China's economic woes (Makes no sense at all). He keeps bumping up that thread and just makes the same point and never replies to anyone with any reasonable answers. He's a true troll. Or he's actually a nut.

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Gatekeeper said:

I given up with him. I don't know how he got to senior member status.

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After two rounds of negotiations since U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping reached a 90-day truce on December 1, 2018, optimism is in the air. Both sides have struck a positive tone. China even surprised Trump by pledging to buy an additional five million tonnes of American soybeans as a gesture of goodwill.

Negotiations on all major U.S. concerns – trade deficits, "forced" technology transfer, intellectual property protection, and market access – are going well. In this vein, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are heading to Beijing for a third round of talks.

There are also reports that Trump might meet Xi after talking with Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) leader Kim Jong Un in Vietnam. The U.S. president urgently needs a policy "win" to boost the chances of getting re-elected and divert domestic attention away from his personal and political problems.

The Democrat-controlled House of Representatives plans to investigate Trump's personal dealings, from tax evasion to his alleged role in the Russiagate scandal. In light of Trump's coming tough "battle" with the Democrats, ending the trade war could give him some "breathing room."

Trade war makes no eco-geopolitical sense

The trade war, taking its toll on the U.S. and China, should not have started in the first place. As things stand, everyone is hurt by it.

For example, General Motors, one of America's largest car manufacturers, is restructuring its operations. It is laying off 4,000 salaried employees in 2019 and closing five plants in North America which could put thousands of more workers on the unemployment line, according to media reports.

China is also one of the first to bear the brunt. Even though exports to the U.S. account for only four percent of the Chinese economy, the trade war has undermined investors' confidence. This may eventually lead to an economic slowdown.

Eco-geopolitically, the trade war is hurting the world's most important pair of bilateral relations. The two largest economies are intrinsically linked: China is both the "factory" and "market" of the United States, and the United States is China's biggest trading partner. Moreover, no major world issues – security, climate change, trade, and financial reforms – can be addressed without the two countries' participation.

It would be naive to suggest that Trump and his senior officials had not anticipated the outcomes of the trade war. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted that all economies would be harmed in the next two years if the trade fight persists.

Below is an example of the IMF's projections. Other developed and emerging markets, perhaps with the exception of India, are also expected to face strong headwinds in the forecast period.

Anti-China sentiment on the rise

Equally important to note is that the trade war has increased the level of anti-China sentiments, a result of Washington's fake news propaganda.

Allegations that China is stealing American jobs do not hold water. Rising unemployment in the U.S. is attributed to automation and businesses relocating manufacturing abroad.

While the U.S. and its Western allies looked down upon China, the socialist country is gradually catching up to the West economically, militarily and technologically, stroking fear in the heart of many Americans.

Wary of China's rise, Americans are easily misled by the fake news spread by the government and so-called scholars.

According to the 2018 Pew Research Center, 83 percent and 82 percent of Americans believe China's "unfair" trade practices are responsible for the loss of jobs and deficits respectively.

A higher percentage, 87 percent, think China is spying on the United States, despite no evidence supporting such allegations. Fear-mongering is working.

A fundamental deal easier said than done

In his State of the Union address on February 5, Trump stressed the importance of structural changes in China.

Experts believe this is demanding China to abandon its "socialism with Chinese characteristics," something the Asian giant cannot and should not surrender.

History will tell that the U.S. will invent other excuses to end the agreement even if China meets all of its demands.

In fact, China appears to be in a stronger position to withstand the tariffs, in that exports to the U.S. account for only four percent of its GDP. This relatively small amount could be sold to China's huge domestic market and its growing number of trade partners.

The U.S., on the other hand, is feeling the "heat" of Trump's trade war. According to a recent CGTN report, the tariffs would reduce its GDP by 0.37 percent and real family income by over 750 U.S. dollars, while cutting 950,000 jobs.

Given the above economic and political implications, the U.S. Congress is pressing Trump to abandon the tariffs and reinstate the North American Free Trade Agreement. It is hoped that the Trump administration can make the right decision in the upcoming trade talks.

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U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are heading to China for a new round of trade talks, aiming to avert a March 1 increase in American tariffs on Chinese goods.

After months of on-again-off-again talks, the largest two economies are exchanging their sincerity and goodwill in clinching a fundamental deal. Apart from opening the door to imports of American rice, Beijing promised to review foreign investment laws and even set up an intellectual property rights court under the Supreme Court.

U.S. President Donald Trump has made frequent phone calls to Chinese President Xi Jinping since their G20 talks in December 2018. The president even pledged to intervene in the case against Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou if it helps to avoid a further decline of Washington-Beijing relations.

In this context, the two sides conducted “very productive” trade talks in the last two months, paving the way for the latest round of negotiations. “We're putting in an enormous amount of effort to try to hit this deadline and get a deal,” Mnuchin was quoted by Reuters as saying.

As the turbulent market is anticipating for a prosperous China-U.S. relationship, Trump's capriciousness is casting a shadow on the prospect of it.

In less than a week after Chinese Vice Premier Liu He's Washington trip, the U.S. president retracted his words and confirmed to the press that he would not meet Xi before the March 1 deadline.

Undeniably, Trump has been acting waywardly on the trade issue. But this businessman-turned-politician is calculative enough to wield every possible tool to turn the situation into what would be in his benefit and has the basic intelligence to suit his actions to the times.

His denial to meet Xi is merely an attempt to win more leverage in trade negotiations. It is interesting to note that Trump affirmed the cancellation of the meeting with DPRK leader Kim Jong Un on May 24, just days before this historic talks took place in Singapore on June 12.

Domestic economic and political quagmires mean that the U.S. president has been left no alternative but to end the trade war at the earliest date. In its January report, Bank of America Corp. pointed out that any escalation of the fight “would be much more painful” for the United States, as the country has “limited room to loosen policy” both fiscally and monetarily.

In the meantime, the International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for the global economy for the second time in three months as a result of China-U.S. trade tensions.

Politically, as the Democrats clawed their way back to a majority in the House of Representatives, Democrat-GOP gridlock may become a regular event perplexing the Trump administration in the next two years before 2020 presidential election.

Terminating the trade war and easing tensions with the second largest economy is the easiest solution to Trump's squeezed political room and an effective card to boost Trump's chances of being re-elected.

Despite his tough rhetoric on China, Trump is like an ant on a hot pan desperate to withdraw from the fight that is dragging GOP and the United States into the economic and political moor.

Action explains everything. Trump is sending two groups of trade negotiators to China in just one month with a higher level and a larger scale.

Indeed, there are some distances between Washington's demands and the extent of Beijing's concessions on some fundamental issues, for instance, the structural reform.

Washington should be aware state control doesn't necessarily mean hostility to the open market, and there is no need to be too demanding on China's system.

It is high time that Washington stops thinking in terms of winning or losing, and take advantage of this round of talks to benefit the entire world.

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• Talks between vice-minister level representatives expected to set scene for top tier meeting later in week
• Analysts remain wary that a comprehensive deal can be reached by the end of the month

The latest round of trade talks between Chinese and US officials got under way in Beijing on Monday, as the March 1 deadline for a deal draws ever closer.

US deputy trade representative Jeffrey Gerrish gave nothing away as he left his hotel in a downtown area of the city, looking stern faced and dismissing reporters’ questions. He and his team of second-tier officials are expected to set the scene for top level talks on Thursday and Friday involving the likes of US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He.

While both sides were upbeat after earlier talks in Beijing and Washington, hopes of finding a resolution to the dispute took a knock last week when US President Donald Trump said it was “unlikely” he would meet Chinese President Xi Jinping this month, with a face-to-face meeting seen as key to cementing a deal.

Under the terms of the trade war truce agreed by Trump and Xi in December, if a deal is not reached by March 1, the US will deliver on its threat to increase the tariffs it imposed on US$200 billion worth of Chinese goods in September to 25 per cent from 10 per cent.

The two economic giants have been locked in a trade war since July, with Washington’s principal gripes being the growing trade imbalance, a lack of intellectual property protection and market access for American firms, cybertheft, forced technology transfers, and Beijing’s subsidies for state-owned enterprises.

Despite having made some progress, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow told Fox Business earlier that a “pretty sizeable distance” remained between the two sides.

According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, which cited people briefed on the matter, at the last round of talks the Chinese team came up with few new proposals and instead reiterated the pledges already made by Xi to open up the economy.

US officials have been pushing for China to adopt deep structural reforms to address their concerns and the latest talks are likely to focus on an enforcement mechanism for any such changes.

Led by Liu, Beijing’s chief trade negotiator, the Chinese team will also include central bank governor Yi Gang, while Lighthizer and Mnuchin will be joined by the undersecretary for international affairs David Malpass, chief agricultural negotiator Gregg Doud, undersecretary for trade and agricultural affairs Ted McKinney, and undersecretary of commerce for international trade Gilbert Kaplan.

Analysts remain wary that a comprehensive deal can be reached by the end of the month.

Sian Fenner, senior Asia economist at the British consultancy Oxford Economics, said the difficulty was that the US wanted Beijing to agree to complex structural and institutional reforms, particularly in the areas of intellectual property protection and industrial policy.

“We think it is likely that the US will again postpone the hike in tariffs from 10 per cent to 25 per cent,” she said.

“We also think that it is now more likely that the two sides will eventually make a deal that would mean a more lasting suspension of new tariffs. That said, we do not think the US will fully remove the spectre of tariff hikes any time soon.”

Aside from the trade dispute, later this week US Senate minority leader Charles Schumer will unveil legislation designed to curtail Chinese exports of fentanyl – a deadly synthetic drug accused of fuelling the opioid crisis in the US – with economic sanctions on those that produce it.

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Equation said:

That's simple. To get senior member status, you just need to post a lot; it doesn't have to make sense. If you wrote, "Cool, I agree" on every thread, every day, you'd be a senior member in no time.

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