Trade War with China

Mr_C said:

I have been reading the blogs in this forum since... definitely more than 10 yrs and I post almost nothing. But today i make an exception. Everyone just relax abit... no one is going to get executed or extradited.... yet. IMO the current situation is a stand-off and poor Canada is stuck in the middle. China is attacking the actual alliance between USA and Canada as an example to other western allies because China probably cant do much about the USA but can influence her allies. China is trying to demonstrate to the western allies the USA had used Canada as something akin to canon fodder because Canada had done USA's bidding at the expense of Canadian citizens being taken "hostage" while no Americans are in danger. China's msg is "If you extradite Meng or convict her, then I will execute the Canadian to make it clear that USA will not even attempt to help you (in significant and practical ways) in this situation". USA and Canada replied "I will extradite Meng and convict her if you execute my citizen". The situation is philosophically similar to the reasons of the sino-vietnamese war. So no rescue for Meng because she is also effectively a hostage too ( as I am sure we are all aware here). She will just have to sit tight and wait it out... same for the Canadians. Besides a hostage is not much use if you actually implement the threat into action. So the basic message between these counties is "Don't Do It"!!!

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China on Tuesday urged Canada to immediately release Huawei Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou and the United States to withdraw its arrest warrant for her.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying made the remarks at a regular news briefing after the United States informed the Canadian government that it planned to proceed with a formal request to extradite Meng.

"China has repeatedly expressed its solemn position on the matter," the spokesperson said. "Anyone with normal judgment could see that the Canadian side has made a serious mistake from the beginning and Meng's case is not an ordinary judicial case."

"Canada and the United States arbitrarily misused the bilateral extradition treaty between them, which had severely violated Chinese citizen's safety and legitimate rights and interests," said Hua, urging Canada to immediately release Meng and safeguard her legitimate rights and interests.

"The Chinese side strongly urges the United States to correct its mistake right away, withdraw the arrest warrant and stop seeking extradition for Meng," she added.

According to reports, Richard Fadden, who served as the head of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service from 2009 to 2013, allegedly suggested that "Canada's government should ban Huawei from Canada's 5G networks to protect the security of Canadians."

In response to the reports, Hua said security issues should be based on facts. "If there is no evidence, they'd better stop delivering such ridiculous speeches."

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• The White House has rejected a trade planning meeting with China this week due to outstanding disagreements over intellectual property rules.
• Should Beijing and Washington fail to agree on a permanent solution by March 1, President Donald Trump has said he will reinforce punitive tariffs.
• The White House tells CNBC that “the teams remain in touch in preparation for high level talks with Vice Premier Liu He at the end of this month.”

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localizer said:

There will be no deal that will seem acceptable to Trump supporters and anti-Trump media.

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Nutrient said:

As I said, Trump is bluffing on a busted flush.

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Nutrient said:

Of course, China could concede some minor points, allowing Trump to save some face.

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Biscuits said:

Think that they’re stalling for time to let Trump dig himself deeper.

Of all the supposed “concessions”, which one actually happened for real? China said yesteryear that they would amend trade balance by 1 trillion $... and this year the trade surplus was at it’s highest ever.

The current govt has A LOT of doves. No one really wants to get tough on America or call them out. The positive side to this is that almost no one in China has suffered due to the trade war since they’ve been conservative.

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Biscuits said:

Think that they’re stalling for time to let Trump dig himself deeper.

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The current govt has A LOT of doves. No one really wants to get tough on America or call them out. The positive side to this is that almost no one in China has suffered due to the trade war since they’ve been conservative.

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Nutrient said:

Trump is bluffing.

The tariffs on a few billion bucks of imports from China are minor compared to what the US stands to lose in exports to the Middle Kingdom: just a single US company, Boeing, wants to sell a trillion dollars of goods there. And that is just the start. So if Trump really pushes his luck, the US could lose it all.

Furthermore, according to this post by Jura on American Economy, over 56% of Americans have less than $1000 of savings. If the cost of basic goods goes up because of Trump's enormous blunder, half of the United States will suffer very badly.

I'm not even factoring in the massive recent drop in the usage of the dollar as the currency of choice in international payments. If other countries need fewer greenbacks, the Americans will have a harder time financing their massive debts and their gigantic military by printing dollars and then offering them abroad. If the US Fed continues to print -- and it'll be hard to stop -- they'll have hyperinflation, which will destroy even those with more than $1000 in the bank.

As I said, Trump is bluffing on a busted flush.

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AndrewS said:

Whilst the US economy would suffer, there is no need to exaggerate by saying the US will suffer from hyperinflation.

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But the key point is that China is already a larger market for consumer retail goods (approx $6Trillion), and is still growing fast.

So China can survive the entire loss of the US market and seek to develop alternatives to US imports.
It won't be pretty, but China should be able to manage.

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