Trade War with China

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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Ok.

I'll address this.

The DF-31 has an 8000km range, which can only cover part of the USA.
The DF-31A is mostly silo based, so is too vulnerable.
Remember that a nuclear deterrent has to be survivable, for at least a few weeks of conventional warfare.
The DF-5 are also silo based.

That leaves the other DF-31 variants (say 24) with say 3 MIRVs each.
Plus I would say that the DF-41 is just? operational

That is why I say China doesn't have a large enough conventional deterrent yet to really deter.

You still have US Navy admirals saying that they can win a nuclear exchange with China.

That is the view that needs to change.



you seem forget that China has another ICBM types that can reach the US .. DF-31A and DF-31B/G .. all US continent is within these ICBM and China has about 60 of them already and all are MIRV with decoys and BeiDou guidance system and old Inertial ... it is quite a deterrent obviously
and of course "old but powerful" 20-30 DF-5A/B and already in service of about 12-16 DF-41 and growing with of course MIRV
 

Faithlock

New Member
Registered Member
First of all, I am not a Chinese national. I have no loyalty to Chinese government. I don’t think I am biased toward China in general.


If the above don’t meet your criteria, please stop reading now.
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But I am worry about how this trade war is going. I am absolutely against Trump in starting this trade war. I worries about how Xi is handling the trade war. I felt this trade war could potentially spiral into something a lot worst.


Trump is a bully and an as-hole, but he is also a businessman. He is perpetually looking for the “best deal”. But Xi has to offer that “best deal”.


The way Xi is reacting to Trump is as he seems to be operated out of fear. He seems to be afraid that he would do too much to antagonize the US to a point where both parties will unite. He seems to be afraid that he would antagonize the US to a point where US and EU will unite. He is afraid to cause a cycle of perpetual retaliations.


By the way, he may also be operating this way to act as a responsible global citizen. Nobody knows how Xi thinks except himself. But I can see his actions. From his actions, Trump will most likely perceive as fear and weakness on Xi’s part.


It seems like whenever Trump pushed, Xi resisted, then Xi gave a little. There is never that “best deal”. If every times Trump pushes, he got a little something more, why would he ever want to stop? In addition, the price of pushing China is so little (because Xi allows Trump to take the initiatives), why would he not want to keep on trying. I believe China said that they had a verbal agreement a few months ago. But Trump renegade. Trump is very instinctual. He is going to keeping on pushing as long as there are benefits for him to do so.


But most importantly, Xi allows Trump to take the initiatives. Trump decides the boundary of the battle. He wants to keep the battle within the bi-lateral import and export. Of course he wants to do that, China ran a lobe sided trade surplus, thus this is a battlefield heavily tilted against China. But why does China want to stay within this artificially created battlefield. Why is China allowing Trump to have a diplomatic victory with North Korea? Why doesn’t China react more strongly when Trump withdraws from the Iran treaty?


China has one great advantage that US doesn’t have. China has lots of money. In addition, the government of China can spend that money wherever, whenever, and however she wants while Trump can’t because money come from the Congress. If Xi is willing to spend money where it would hurt Trump or US (even if it doesn't help China, so I am not talking about Belt and Road), he can create so many new battlefields that are tilted favorably to China.


Trump is starting the trade war. A trade war is supposed to be painful because it causes supply chain relocation. But supply chain relocation is only truly painful if it occurs abruptly. But Trump is succeeding in doing a soft landing on the supply chain relocation by giving the companies plenty of time to relocate (The intend to start the trade war occurs on 3/22/2018, even now only $50B worth of goods were tariff, but all the factories in China know they need to relocate big part of their factories to other countries).


But why is China allowing it. 50% tariff on $25B has a lot more impact than 25% tariff on $50B. 25% tariff (alone with 10% depreciation of RMB) might allows for slow relocation while 50% tariff causes inflation or unavailabity of the goods.


Trump is picking tariff in batches. The 1st batch has the least impact on US, the 2nd batch has 2nd least impact, etc.


Trump is deciding the where, the when, and the how.


Why does China allow Trump to has this smooth and nice built up? Why can’t China impost export tax on the products that will affect US the most (for example 50% export tax on $10B of products that US has trouble source from others)?



Trump is taking initiative in starting new battlefields where US has great advantages. He targeted ZTE. It took Xi’s personal phone call to Trump to “resolve” this. First, it is not much of a “resolve” when the result is having the company reports to US’s embedded compliance team. I am pretty certain in the future; historian will call this an unequal agreement.


The second I heard about this, I knew all the great Chinese companies will be in danger. Again, Trump is taking initiatives. He created leverage out of thin air and got something out of it without much pain. Why doesn’t Xi counter attack? Why does Xi has to cater?


ZTE might be forced to go bankrupt against the US. But it doesn’t have to if it has the full support of China. ZTE can buy low end chipset from Spreadtrum, mid end chipset from Taiwan’s Mediatech, and (China can force) Huawei to sell high end chipset to ZTE.


Even if ZTE is forced to go bankrupt, so what? ZTE is a state own company. All the research, equipment, and personnel are within China. The company is easy to re-constitute.


It is easy to counter attack. For example, most of the technology companies have suit/countersuit between US and Chinese companies. Lets take Micro Technology and SMIC as an example, each are suing each other in China for IP infringement. All it takes is for a court to issue injunction on SMIC’s behave and forbid Micro Tech from selling significant part of their product in China until the injunction is lifted.


Now, Trump goes even further. He basically “kidnapped” Huawei’s daughter. Again, Xi does nothing against US. Why won’t Trump ever stop if there is no pain? Or why would any future US politician want to stop attacking China since they can look strong in front their electorate without suffering many consequences?


I am not talking about overwhelming attack. I am only talking about proportional counter attack. I came out with quite a few (4 or 5 or more) ways of counter attacks. But frankly, it is not important. I am certain Xi (from his excellent economic officials) has a lot more ways to counter attack that are in proportion and provides maximum pain to its opponents. But it is more of a question of will. Is he willing to do it?


Old guards such as Mao Zedong and Zeng Xiaoping, who were great generals, understand the necessity of taking initiatives. They understand that when they order a company to take over an enemy position, they will take casualties and losses. The only way to not take loss is to get inside a castle and play defense. But playing defense is also the sure way to lose everything.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General

Interesting from FOX News. But they still don't tell the whole truth. They act like China is free to buy anything from the US but it's China that chooses not to. Basically the only US electronics and manufactured goods China is allowed to buy are the ones that China can make itself and at a cheaper cost. It's the US that has a dual-use technology ban imposed on China where anything where the Chinese military can use have restrictions that's outright against the law to transfer to China or has to be reviewed by the US government to be okayed and that can take a long time where China has already found another source to buy. The US accuses China of forcing US companies in handing over technology. It certainly isn't advanced technology because the US entity that transferred it would be arrested for violating US law. If China can only buy agriculture from the US, that's their own fault. China is in no way obligated to make up a trade deficit created by their own paranoia. But then again if the media told the truth, everyone would see it's the US's own fault.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
That FOX News story is bullshit as usual. China does not get to keep the majority of the profits of making Apple smartphones, for example, the majority of the profit is stashed away by Apple in offshore bank accounts as "license fees". The total cost of Chinese labor per phone? $10 USD. That is what is retained by China. Big whoop. Meanwhile Chinese manufacturer smartphones have a tiny market share in the USA because of USA government sanctions on Chinese imports. That is why they do not want ZTE or Huawei to sell their product. That is why they extracted extortionate fines from Samsung. China also spends a lot of money on purchases of USA manufactured aircraft. They would have spent even more on civilian airliners had it not been for their push with high-speed train technology. China will be able to reduce their imports on aircraft once they can manufacture their own but that will take at least a decade if not more.

Someone needs to take into account the actual money flows someday. I would bet the "trade imbalance" is not nearly as large as typically mentioned by a long shot.
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
@Faithlock

Xi Jinping’s strategy probably revolves around outlasting Trump.

Your assessment that China has not attacked seriously yet is correct, but it’s not necessarily a disadvantage. Every trench stormed leads to a loss of men. Trump has pissed off many important people in and outside US and caused his people suffering.

Xi has made a coordinated retreat, partitioning off damage from society at large, forcing US to pay an unsustainable price (literally, their govt can’t afford paying out promised bailouts) for every inch.

Beijing holds a couple of devastating moves in their hand, involving the mass sell off of US debt, seizure of US asset (particularly Trump family), export bans in electronics & processed materials and taking counter hostages using itself or Russia (last I checked, Ivanka and Jared both frequent China, and Putin has some sway over Trump family in general).

There’s two different theories of how they will come in play:

1. Not until China gets cornered. Every tactic would incur losses to Chinese society and international credibility just like use of similar tactics by the US. If the trade war can be won without using these tactics, then it would be an optimal victory that costs China little/no credibility.

2. When Trump’s personal position has reached a breaking point. Trump’s power has been waning since his inauguration. As of now, there is an ongoing mass arrest of Trump associates along with a shutdown which many people claim is a stalling act.
Once the US command structure collapses, Xi would attack while they are at their most vulnerable.

Is the current govt’s strategy optimal? Mao would certainly have done differently, but would that be better?

Xi’s stance comes from valuing the lives of his own people above the lives of non citizens, so doing whatever he can to make sure they are impacted as little as possible.

Mao on the other hand valued Chinese and foreigner civilians the same, that is to say, not much at all. What he valued was unity. He would be happy over the trade war because it would have united the people. Likewise, he would focus on attacking US unity while Xi Jinping focuses on attacking US livelihoods.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
US lawmakers seek to ban chip sales to China’s Huawei and ZTE for ‘violating American sanctions’
SCMP
  • The bipartisan bills target firms supposedly in breach of US sanctions, and specifically cite Huawei and ZTE
  • Republican Senator Tom Cotton branded Huawei ‘an intelligence-gathering arm of the Chinese Communist Party’

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This probably won't make it into law, for a number of reasons.

But it is ridiculous legislation, given that Europe, Russia and China are setting up a Special Purpose Vehicle specifically to bypass unilateral US sanctions on Iran.
And those unilateral sanctions on Iran are in contravention of a UN Security Council resolution that the previous US administration approved.

Anyway, it's a clear sign that Chinese companies need to remove any and all US content.
It will be difficult, but it will have to happen.

Given that China is the world's largest consumer and importer of microchips, I also expect companies are going to start specifying supply guarantees in new contracts, which means companies in Europe, Korea, Japan and Taiwan will start designing and producing chips free of US content.
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
This probably won't make it into law, for a number of reasons.

But it is ridiculous legislation, given that Europe, Russia and China are setting up a Special Purpose Vehicle specifically to bypass unilateral US sanctions on Iran.
And those unilateral sanctions on Iran are in contravention of a UN Security Council resolution that the previous US administration approved.

Anyway, it's a clear sign that Chinese companies need to remove any and all US content.
It will be difficult, but it will have to happen.

Given that China is the world's largest consumer and importer of microchips, I also expect companies are going to start specifying supply guarantees in new contracts, which means companies in Europe, Korea, Japan and Taiwan will start designing and producing chips free of US content.

It is also ridiculous because Huawei doesn't have any outsourcing. It's the same as the "sanctions" on the foreign procurement division of the PLA that wouldn't ever import a piece of american hardware anyways.
 
now noticed the tweet
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MOFCOM: Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will visit the U.S. later this month to continue trade talks

DxGInlyVsAAaImN.jpg
 

Icmer

Junior Member
Registered Member
It is also ridiculous because Huawei doesn't have any outsourcing. It's the same as the "sanctions" on the foreign procurement division of the PLA that wouldn't ever import a piece of american hardware anyways.

Huawei does sell phones with Snapdragon chips. Their telecom equipment also relies on cutting-edge American optical components.
 
it's actually interesting (the guy will live or hang) Opinion: Canadian case should be discussed within legal framework 2019-01-17 13:09 GMT+8
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While the row, over Meng Wanzhou's case, between Beijing and Ottawa is still lingering on, another case involving a Canadian man has
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a debate about China's law and order. The Intermediate People's Court of Dalian City, northeast China's Liaoning Province sentenced a Canadian citizen, Robert Schellenberg, to death for drug smuggling.

After verifying the evidence, the Chinese court ruled that the case was previously too leniently handled by the lower court, and in its retrial procedure, due to the newly identified evidences, it was pronounced that the 15-year jail time was not enough and the defendant should be sentenced to death instead.

The verdict was immediately criticized as politically motivated by Canada.

Canadian consular officials and the defendant's lawyer insisted that "the initial evidence was not enough to convict him," and under the current PRC Criminal Procedure Law, the additional criminal evidence presented by the prosecutors cannot be used to add to one's sentence.

Setting aside the diplomatic tussle and political allegations, the case has everything to do with the criminal procedure and jurisprudential account thereof. And if the case is read other than in terms of delivering justice and proper punishment, the judgment will be taking on a different complexion and is most likely to be subjected to political distortion.

Therefore, a strict dogmatic reading of the related provision would cast a new light on the case. According to Article 262 of the newly revised Criminal Procedure Law, when a case is remanded to the original court for new trial by the court of the second instance, the original court shall not aggravate the punishment on the defendant unless there are new facts of the crime and the people's procuratorate has initiated supplementary prosecution.

Hence, it is evident that the kernel of the Canadian case lies in how to understand the meaning of "new facts of the crime." In normal sense, it appears that should no new facts be identified, Schellenberg ought to be granted the original lighter sentence.

However, there coexist two versions of interpretation on "new facts of the crime," which are diametrically opposite.

The first reading of the phrase "new facts of the crime" may refer to facts that were previously neglected by the procuratorate, but severe enough that would lead to a new crime prosecution. In other words, the new facts exclude those merely affecting the sentencing of the formerly charged crime.

This understanding is echoed in a guideline book on Criminal Procedure Law compiled by the National People's Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC), the supreme legislative body in China, which, though not binding, unveils such logic that not all new facts would constitute exception in Article 262, and sentences in retrial hearing should be always commuted rather than aggravated.

The second perception of the provision points to an opposite direction, which mingles "new crime" with "new sentencing, arguing that as long as necessary, any new facts should be construed as possibly new ground for retrial case to be treated more heavy-handedly.

Clearly, different understandings of the term would have a huge impact on the outcome of the case. For example, if the term is narrowly construed, Schellenberg would be more leniently treated and the sentencing should not be aggravated. Yet, if the second version is adopted, capital punishment is legally feasible.

No matter which version the court picks, it is important to note that this is a legal issue replete with uncertainties and complexities. Unless heavily engaging in digging out the true meaning of the provision, nobody should be able to find a convincing answer.

In this sense, drawing a rash conclusion that "China is arbitrarily enforcing laws" is genuinely ill-founded, which is in itself falling foul of the true spirit of the rule of the law.
 
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