Trade War with China

AndrewS said:

And why is there is a difference between Romania and the USA in terms of what is claimable as R&D spending?

That would appear to indicate that the Romanian government is incompetent in fostering a business friendly environment.

If you look at China, we can see business actually does have a lot of influence in legislation.

But why do we care about Romanian R&D anyway?

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Roumania is a sampling point for the R&D vs GDP correlation study.

Anyway, my point is simple: The desk excel wizards discovered correlation between the R&D and GDP, and many of them made PHD based on this and /or received jobs at the central bank / government.

Due to that the every government around the globe started to do thing to improve the R&D activity, and the main tool for it is the taxation system.
And at the same time the tax returns showing the level of R&D in every country,


Due to this you have to prove NOT that the past correlation is true, but that the new, tax return based R&D calculation is still valid and showing true picture.
As a starter.

After that , it has to show that the new initiatives actually giving productivity improvement.

Anlsvrthng said:

Roumania is a sampling point for the R&D vs GDP correlation study.

Anyway, my point is simple: The desk excel wizards discovered correlation between the R&D and GDP, and many of them made PHD based on this and /or received jobs at the central bank / government.

Due to that the every government around the globe started to do thing to improve the R&D activity, and the main tool for it is the taxation system.
And at the same time the tax returns showing the level of R&D in every country,


Due to this you have to prove NOT that the past correlation is true, but that the new, tax return based R&D calculation is still valid and showing true picture.
As a starter.

After that , it has to show that the new initiatives actually giving productivity improvement.

Click to expand...

No, it has been obvious for decades that high GDP per capita income (for populous countries at least) is correlated with hi-tech sectors that need a strong science and technology base.

You should do your own study with the latest figures and see what the results are, and report back on the Chinese example.

APEC leaders fail to agree? They mean only the US fails to agree. The US wanted all APEC members to make a Trump statement against the WTO. Don't you love democratic values? One country gets to decide for everyone else. Yes Mike Pence sees himself at APEC as the small island in a sea of heathens.

You never what come next in trade war first it was soy bean now ethanol But China has no problem replacing US import the same cannot be said of Chinese import to US
The Surprise Fuel Flows Sparked by a Raging U.S.-China Trade War
By

November 18, 2018, 7:45 PM CST

• 
  Malaysia replaced the U.S. as China’s biggest ethanol supplier
• 
  At the same time, Malaysia imports a record amount from U.S.

A Southeast Asian nation that was a bit player in the biofuel market is suddenly buying and selling unprecedented supplies. The U.S.-China trade war may have something to do with it.

Malaysia has emerged to displace the U.S. as the biggest supplier of ethanol to China in just two months. It’s also the first time the Southeast Asian country is selling such significant volumes to the world’s top consumer. At the same time, it’s buying a record amount of the fuel from America.


The hook? The shift occurred after President Xi Jinping imposed tariffs on U.S. ethanol imports in retaliation to American counterpart Donald Trump’s duties on Chinese goods. While the two countries apply tit-for-tat levies, shipments from Malaysia to China are tax free.

The dispute between the world’s two largest economies has roiled markets from consumer goods to soybeans, but rarely has a completely new player emerged to fill in a supply gap. The sudden spike in the flows in and out of Malaysia has taken traders by surprise, according to Heather Zhang, a Singapore-based analyst who follows the global biofuel industry at researcher .

“It’s an interesting opportunity,” Zhang said. “It shows some merchants are enthusiastic in their effort to generate profitability and adapt to change in the international trading environment during this unusual trade war event.”

Questionable Demand
There is no significant production or use of fuel ethanol in Malaysia, the U.S. Department of Agriculture in a report in October last year. It’s not produced commercially as the feedstock is expensive to transport, and it’s also excluded as a source of alternative fuel under the Southeast Asian nation’s biofuel policy, according to the USDA.

For China, demand for the renewable fuel is growing after the world’s largest automobile market announced an ambitious to expand the use of ethanol gasoline for vehicles nationwide by 2020. Weaning itself off from U.S. biofuel may be a challenge it struggles to meet given the lack of domestic production capacity, as well as higher prices from suppliers elsewhere.

How Much?
Malaysia bought about 97 million liters of ethanol this year from the U.S., mostly in August and September, for a total $35 million, or 36 cents a liter, according to the USDA.

China purchased a total 88 million liters of ethanol, labeled as ethyl alcohol in import , during August and September from Malaysia, compared with zero inbound shipments in the first seven months of this year. The total value of the purchase reported to Chinese authorities was about $49 million, or 56 cents a liter.

Meanwhile, shipments from America to China plunged to just over 13 thousand liters in the quarter ended Sept. 30. China’s price per liter for U.S. ethanol was about 44 cents a liter. Now that would be subject to tariffs including a 25 percent levy imposed in July, a 15 percent tax in April, and a 30 percent tariff on all ethanol imports. The prices reported to Chinese customs and the USDA exclude duties.

in 2019.

“The market is curious whether the flow will persist and eventually develop Southeast Asia as a sustainable emerging hub,” Zhang said.

Still, some market participants have raised red flags over the sustainability of the new flows, according to a PRIMA report in August. They suspect there is not enough ethanol production capacity in Malaysia for such a trade to seem legitimately viable for long, PRIMA said, cited industry discussions.

“The industry understands that ethanol production in Malaysia is limited, and the country doesn’t consume ethanol either,” Zhang said. “This change has subverted many people’s perception of the fundamentals.”

UP NEXT
Pence's Sharp China Attacks Fuel Fears of Cold War Dividing Asia

Brazil is a major producer of ethanol. Any country which has high sugarcane production can produce ethanol for much cheaper than the USA can produce it from corn. Were it not for subsidies, corn ethanol would be utterly non-competitive. Contrary to what the article says however, Malaysia has had a history in the biofuels business, since they are a major palm oil producer nation, they are also one of the major manufacturers of biodiesel. Just not ethanol.

Hendrik_2000 said:

You never what come next in trade war first it was soy bean now ethanol But China has no problem replacing US import the same cannot be said of Chinese import to US
The Surprise Fuel Flows Sparked by a Raging U.S.-China Trade War
By

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

November 18, 2018, 7:45 PM CST

• 
  Malaysia replaced the U.S. as China’s biggest ethanol supplier
• 
  At the same time, Malaysia imports a record amount from U.S.

A Southeast Asian nation that was a bit player in the biofuel market is suddenly buying and selling unprecedented supplies. The U.S.-China trade war may have something to do with it.

Malaysia has emerged to displace the U.S. as the biggest supplier of ethanol to China in just two months. It’s also the first time the Southeast Asian country is selling such significant volumes to the world’s top consumer. At the same time, it’s buying a record amount of the fuel from America.


The hook? The shift occurred after President Xi Jinping imposed tariffs on U.S. ethanol imports in retaliation to American counterpart Donald Trump’s duties on Chinese goods. While the two countries apply tit-for-tat levies, shipments from Malaysia to China are tax free.

The dispute between the world’s two largest economies has roiled markets from consumer goods to soybeans, but rarely has a completely new player emerged to fill in a supply gap. The sudden spike in the flows in and out of Malaysia has taken traders by surprise, according to Heather Zhang, a Singapore-based analyst who follows the global biofuel industry at researcher

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

.

“It’s an interesting opportunity,” Zhang said. “It shows some merchants are enthusiastic in their effort to generate profitability and adapt to change in the international trading environment during this unusual trade war event.”

Questionable Demand
There is no significant production or use of fuel ethanol in Malaysia, the U.S. Department of Agriculture

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

in a report in October last year. It’s not produced commercially as the feedstock is expensive to transport, and it’s also excluded as a source of alternative fuel under the Southeast Asian nation’s biofuel policy, according to the USDA.

For China, demand for the renewable fuel is growing after the world’s largest automobile market announced an ambitious

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

to expand the use of ethanol gasoline for vehicles nationwide by 2020. Weaning itself off from U.S. biofuel may be a challenge it struggles to meet given the lack of domestic production capacity, as well as higher prices from suppliers elsewhere.

How Much?
Malaysia bought about 97 million liters of ethanol this year from the U.S., mostly in August and September, for a total $35 million, or 36 cents a liter, according to the USDA.

China purchased a total 88 million liters of ethanol, labeled as ethyl alcohol in import

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

, during August and September from Malaysia, compared with zero inbound shipments in the first seven months of this year. The total value of the purchase reported to Chinese authorities was about $49 million, or 56 cents a liter.

Meanwhile, shipments from America to China plunged to just over 13 thousand liters in the quarter ended Sept. 30. China’s price per liter for U.S. ethanol was about 44 cents a liter. Now that would be subject to tariffs including a 25 percent levy imposed in July, a 15 percent tax

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

in April, and a 30 percent tariff on all ethanol imports. The prices reported to Chinese customs and the USDA exclude duties.

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in 2019.

“The market is curious whether the flow will persist and eventually develop Southeast Asia as a sustainable emerging hub,” Zhang said.

Still, some market participants have raised red flags over the sustainability of the new flows, according to a PRIMA report in August. They suspect there is not enough ethanol production capacity in Malaysia for such a trade to seem legitimately viable for long, PRIMA said, cited industry discussions.

“The industry understands that ethanol production in Malaysia is limited, and the country doesn’t consume ethanol either,” Zhang said. “This change has subverted many people’s perception of the fundamentals.”

UP NEXT
Pence's Sharp China Attacks Fuel Fears of Cold War Dividing Asia

Click to expand...

Sounds like a simple re-export scheme, this should be the first thing to expect in a tariff war.

Contrary to the western press not many of the US companies are leaving China. In fact i believe China has a banner year attracting FDI
"We're not expecting to see a massive corporate exodus from China. These U.S. companies have been in the market for years and they're now aimed at gaining market share," he said. "If we remember the core concerns over the trade war, they're really looking at market access concerns. The whole goal of this from the U.S. perspective is not to abandon the region."

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US companies aren't in a hurry to leave China despite the trade war, analysts say

• Many U.S. companies are keeping their manufacturing operations in China at this point, analysts said.
• While businesses await further details on how U.S.-China trade relations will unfold, they could remain in China while boosting investments in other countries such as Vietnam, Nick Marro, a Hong Kong-based analyst with The Economist Intelligence Unit, said Friday.

|
Published 16 Hours AgoCNBC.com

CNBC
A Chinese factory worker.
U.S. companies aren't leaving in a big way yet, despite escalating trade tensions between the two economic powerhouses, analysts said.

"A lot of companies are talking about making changes, but (are) not actively making changes," said Chris Rogers, research analyst at Panjiva, a data company that's part of S&P Global Market Intelligence.

"Nobody's going to make any changes until they see how this summit goes between President and President ," he said referring to their upcoming meeting at the G-20 summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina on Nov. 30 and Dec. 1.


"(I) haven't seen any significant U.S. companies leaving China," Rogers said in a phone interview Friday.

Many hope the G-20 meeting will diffuse trade tensions between the world's two largest economies, which this summer began to apply additional tariffs on billions of dollars' worth of each other's imports.

The tariffs may encourage U.S. companies to step up a trend of increasing manufacturing operations outside China, analysts said. As labor costs in China rise, many companies — including some Chinese firms — are looking toward Southeast Asian countries as new manufacturing centers.

"Nobody's going to make any changes until they see how this summit goes between President Trump and President Xi."-Chris Rogers, research analyst at Panjiva
But the desire to look outside China doesn't mean leaving the country altogether.

Rather than investing more in a Chinese factory, a foreign company may invest more in another country, such as Vietnam, Nick Marro, a Hong Kong-based analyst with The Economist Intelligence Unit, said in a phone interview Friday.

Indeed, found that and could benefit the most in the long run from a U.S.-China trade war. The two countries have strong infrastructure for supporting distribution, and are well-positioned in the manufacturing of low-end information and technology products and components, the report said.

also has potential to increase its role as a manufacturing center due to its experience in electronics manufacturing and the government's efforts to upgrade national infrastructure, the analysis found.



Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit

A spokesperson for the American Chamber of Commerce in Beijing also told CNBC that U.S. companies are staying in China, but they are looking to diversify where their components come from or products are assembled.

Nearly two-thirds of respondents to a survey by the chamber said they are not relocating or considering such a move. Only 13 out of more than 430 companies surveyed are considering leaving China — but rather than choosing the U.S., Southeast Asia is the top destination.

However, companies will likely move slowly. Marro said moving manufacturing operations from China to another country is a process that will realistically take three to five years.

"We're not expecting to see a massive corporate exodus from China. These U.S. companies have been in the market for years and they're now aimed at gaining market share."-Nick Marro, The Economist Intelligence Unit
Businesses may also want to gauge the political risks of what signals they are sending when they shift their production centers.

"You have to be careful it doesn't look like you're evading tariffs," Rogers said. "You may see a kind of reputational risk if you were in the Chinese market, then you leave. There's kind of a negative PR behind that."

"Companies are not going to make major changes to their supply chain until they're sure the tariffs are going to be around for the next couple of years," he added.

The U.S. is set to raise tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods from 10 percent to 25 percent at the beginning of the new year, a point Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross reiterated in an

Marro expects the U.S.-China trade tensions to be a relatively long-term conflict. However, he expects U.S. companies will stay in China for another reason – to tap the growing consumer market.

"We're not expecting to see a massive corporate exodus from China. These U.S. companies have been in the market for years and they're now aimed at gaining market share," he said. "If we remember the core concerns over the trade war, they're really looking at market access concerns. The whole goal of this from the U.S. perspective is not to abandon the region."

tbh they should slowly force the luxury brands out, the D&G thing today shows why they should.
blind western brand loyalty of chinese disgusts me

welcome more tech companies

It might be just ramblings but I came across a statement from Steve Bannon, claiming that the main idea behind the big US tax cut that was devised back when he was in the White House, was economic pressure on China. The logic being something like "The tax cut won't benefit most US citizens, but it will benefit the large corporations. And we need those corporations to be strong, so once a trade war and tariffs are ongoing, they can be as resilient and as strong as possible to withstand such a prolonged conflict".

Totoro said:

It might be just ramblings but I came across a statement from Steve Bannon, claiming that the main idea behind the big US tax cut that was devised back when he was in the White House, was economic pressure on China. The logic being something like "The tax cut won't benefit most US citizens, but it will benefit the large corporations. And we need those corporations to be strong, so once a trade war and tariffs are ongoing, they can be as resilient and as strong as possible to withstand such a prolonged conflict".

Click to expand...

just a random statement from a loser ..... just trying to make himself still be remembered