Trade War with China

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AndrewS

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Impact of Trade War on Growth: IMF

In its annual report on the health of the global economy, the IMF said the disruption from trade tensions would hit China the hardest, with GDP losses of more than 1.6% in 2019. The U.S. would lose more than 0.9% of GDP in 2019.

The IMF study includes all the trade actions taken to date between the U.S. and China and also assumes that the U.S. follows through with a 25% tariff on all imported cars and car parts.

If the imported car tariffs are not put in place, the negative impact on the U.S. would be roughly halved, while China would still be hit hard, the agency said.

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Projected growth by the IMF was 6.6% for China and 2.9% for the USA in 2019.

In other words, the USA would see a 31% reduction in growth, but China would only see a 24% reduction in its much higher growth rate of 6.6%.

So if Trump follow through on this, we will see the USA shooting itself in the foot.
 
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Hendrik_2000

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
That is correct actually it is the Japanese business circle that is pushing for closer tie with China They want to participate in BRI It is win win for both side The Japanese get the cut The Chinese has partner to lessen the risk and give it more credibility to ward off smear campaign to slander China with debt trap etc So it is a good move for both side
Anyway Trade figure coming from China beat expectation by wide margin Tariff no Tariff it does not make a difference proof once for all that tariff is self defeating. China export to US ballooned while import from US slump
China-US surplus hits record, adding fuel to trade war
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Shipping containers being unloaded at the Port of Long Beach, California (AFP Photo/Mark RALSTON)
China's trade surplus with the United States ballooned to a record $34.1 billion in September despite a raft of US tariffs, official data showed Friday, adding fuel to the spiralling trade war.

China's exports to the US rose to $46.7 billion while imports slumped to $12.6 billion, according to the customs administration.

The world's top two economies imposed new tariffs on a massive amount of each other's goods mid-September, with the US targeting $200 billion in Chinese imports and Beijing firing back at $60 billion worth of US goods.

"China-US trade friction has caused trouble and pounded our foreign trade development," customs spokesman Li Kuiwen told reporters Friday, adding that the overall situation could be controlled.

China's overall trade surplus expanded to $31.6 billion, as exports rose faster than imports.

Exports jumped 14.5 percent for September on-year, beating forecasts from analysts polled by Bloomberg News, while imports rose 14.3 percent on-year.

While the data showed China's trade remained strong for the month, analysts forecast the trade war will start to hurt in coming months.
 
T

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
No one mentioning the stock market crashing two days in a row now? And that Treasury Yields are going high? Oil and tech stocks plunging? Everyone freaking out?
 
AssassinsMace

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
Trump was bragging about all the money the US was making on tariffs. The US is making more money from tariffs than ever before from exports from China that's breaking record surpluses yet still angry...

Funny about how people were bragging about how China didn't slap tariffs on US oil meaning to them China is dependent on US oil. But now US oil exports to China have plunged to nearly nothing. Not buying US oil is worse than a tariff.

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All you have to do is look at North Korea. The US could do a lot to North Korea yet the US and its allies were too afraid to take on North Korea. Why? Because it's not about what you can do. It's about what you're willing to lose. That is every Western countries' weakness including the US. The richer, the more important you think you are, the more you have to lose, the less likely you're going to do anything including sacrificing your life.
 
D

Dolcevita

Major
SamuraiBlue said:
Looks as if PRC is getting desperate. LoL
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Surely more proof that China is getting desperate by suggesting cooperation for Japan PM visit, right SB? :D;)

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China says Abe to make official visit this month

BEIJING--Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will visit China from Oct. 25 to 27 in the first official visit by a Japanese leader in seven years, China said on Friday, as the United States steps up trade pressure on Beijing and Tokyo.

U.S. President Donald Trump has made clear he is unhappy over Japan's $69-billion trade surplus with the United States, and wants a two-way agreement to address it with the U.S. ally.

He has also slapped tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese imports for what he calls its trade abuses, prompting retaliation from Beijing.

"We hope this visit by Prime Minister Abe can help consolidate and elevate mutual trust, deepen practical cooperation, and promote continuous new development in ties," Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lu Kang said in Beijing.

China welcomes investment from Japanese firms, he told a regular briefing, adding that increasing trade and economic cooperation between the two major economies benefits both them and the world.

"We attach importance to China-Japan relations."

Visits by Abe in recent years to attend multilateral events in China have not been considered official visits.

In September, after meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping in Russia, Abe said the two sides had agreed to work toward an October visit, in what was seen as a sign of warming ties between the two Asian rivals.

"Both Japan and China share a big responsibility for the peace and prosperity of this region," Abe said in a speech in Tokyo on Friday.

He added that he aimed to drive ties between the neighbors to a new level through mutual visits by their leaders and expanded exchanges between their people.

Abe returned to office for a rare second term in December 2012, promising a hard line towards China in a territorial row over tiny islands in the East China Sea.

Although the dispute simmers, relations have stabilized recently amid trade actions by Washington toward both countries.​
 
T

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
AssassinsMace said:
Trump was bragging about all the money the US was making on tariffs. The US is making more money from tariffs than ever before from exports from China that's breaking record surpluses yet still angry...

Funny about how people were bragging about how China didn't slap tariffs on US oil meaning to them China is dependent on US oil. But now US oil exports to China have plunged to nearly nothing. Not buying US oil is worse than a tariff.

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All you have to do is look at North Korea. The US could do a lot to North Korea yet the US and its allies were too afraid to take on North Korea. Why? Because it's not about what you can do. It's about what you're willing to lose. That is every Western countries' weakness including the US. The richer, the more important you think you are, the more you have to lose, the less likely you're going to do anything including sacrificing your life.
Click to expand...


China buying Canadian crude. Canadian oil is not just cheaper, but also richer in Bitumen than West Texas Intermediate Crude. You need Bitumen for asphalt and other infrastructure uses, and China is still building infrastructure like there is no tomorrow.

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Chinese not buying US oil is a factor in causing oil stocks to go down, which may have helped the stocks to crash in the last few days, along with the issues with Iran.

China not buying new US Treasuries, or just allowing existing ones to mature without replacement, may also be a factor in the rise of US Treasury yields. No one is willing to say the C-word when it comes to the cause of the rise in Treasury yields, certainly not the corporate shilling business press (CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business) but do you find it a coincidence this is happening at the same time?

Smart for the Russians giving up on US Treasuries to buy Gold when Gold is low. Now people are flocking to Gold as an investment shelter and where to park their money.

Tech stocks led the rout but I still expect cloud and mobile tech companies to shine when they release their earnings this October. This can cause the stock market to rise but this does not solve their fundamental issues about the tech stock bubble.

1. Vulnerability of the China-US tech supply chain due to the trade war. Imagine if tariffs were truly imposed on Apple iPhones.
2. EU leading a movement to cut the US tech giants to size, ranging from fining Google on Android to faxes on Apple, and now Amazon is under investigation.
3. US self inflicted. Wanting to investigate concerns about Facebook and Google, and so on.

Two red indicators on the US economy. Mortgages are down, leading financing firms to cut down their mortgage departments and laying off staff. This will hit the housing and construction industry, and the industries supplying them.

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The second red indicator are car sales. Aluminum and steel tariffs are hurting car manufacturers as well as tariffs on Chinese parts. New trade deals with Canada and Mexico are not going to help when the automobile corporations are going to report their quarterlies. Already Ford is sounding they are going to lose big money and planning to layoff.

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Bad for GM, whose stocks have been slumping for months now.

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Look to signs on US consumer spending --- car sales, home mortgages, the retail front where we are still having Retailpocalypse (Sears maybe reading to declare bankruptcy soon), and you got a very jittery US stock market.
 
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Jura The idiot

Jura The idiot

General
now I read this
Opinion: 'The art of the deal' can't be a light for the world
2018-10-13 13:18 GMT+8
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The latest World Economic Outlook report, released in April by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2018 and 2019 from 3.9 percent down to 3.7 percent.

The IMF said that in a highly uncertain political environment, trade risks have become a major challenge for the global economy. This is why IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde called on world leaders "to join hands to fix the current trade system, not destroy it."

Last week when US Vice President Mike Pence delivered a speech in Washington attacking China, he mentioned the tariffs on 250 billion US dollars of goods from China being implemented by the US. He warned that the US "will levy even more tariffs, with the possibility of substantially more than doubling that number, unless a fair and reciprocal deal is made," a threat that has also been made by President Donald Trump.

Despite the calls by the IMF for a resolution to political uncertainty and rising trade tensions, Pence defended the Trump administration's trade war, saying that "the United States of America has been defending our interests with renewed American strength."

What Vice President Pence calls a defense, and what President Trump has called "the art of the deal," have been seen by many for what they really are: an attack by the US against its allies, and against the very foundations of the international multilateral system.

In June, the White House trade representative Peter Navarro said that "There's a special place in hell for anyone who engages in bad faith diplomacy with President Donald J. Trump." He was referring to Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

Trudeau said at a press conference after G7 meeting: "Canadians did not take it lightly that the United States has moved forward with significant tariffs on our steel and aluminum industry." President Trump responded by retracting his endorsement of the G7 joint statement.

In July, Trump and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker surprisingly released a joint statement, which was held up as something of a peace deal for their trade frictions. The two sides reached consensus on working toward "zero" tariffs, barriers and subsidies.

However, Trump's offer of peace really was too good to be true. At the end of August, President Trump announced a 25 percent tariff on cars imported from the European Union.

As for Japan, a longtime friend of the US, it was slapped with Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs. And Trump further threatened to increase the tariff on Japanese cars from 2.5 to 25 percent in order to push Japan to the table to sign several bilateral trade agreements.

As for China, the White House has claimed many times that China has been unwilling to move beyond their current trade disputes. But in reality, China has clarified that it is willing to work with the US to find a solution.

In the white paper released in September, China expressed its willingness to restart negotiations on bilateral investments and signaled that it is open to working towards a bilateral free trade agreement based on the spirit of equality and mutual benefits.

There is a Chinese saying that "People without credibility won't be able to prosper; A country without credibility will surely decline." Trump's protectionist and unilateralist acts are jeopardizing America's credibility as a responsible world leader.

The world has seen time and again that Trump, since assuming office, is gradually withdrawing the US from the international community. To the dismay of US allies, Trump has pulled his country out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, the Paris climate accord, the Iran nuclear deal as well as international organizations including UNESCO and the United Nations Human Rights Council. Trump even threatened to withdraw from the World Trade Organization and the United Nations.

Is this really the "American leadership [that] lights the way" that Pence was telling the world about? As the US turns on its allies and foes alike, proclaiming its adherence to the philosophy of "America First," how can it expect to be a country that helps to light the way for the world?
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PiSigma

PiSigma

"the engineer"
Tam said:
China buying Canadian crude. Canadian oil is not just cheaper, but also richer in Bitumen than West Texas Intermediate Crude. You need Bitumen for asphalt and other infrastructure uses, and China is still building infrastructure like there is no tomorrow.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Chinese not buying US oil is a factor in causing oil stocks to go down, which may have helped the stocks to crash in the last few days, along with the issues with Iran.

China not buying new US Treasuries, or just allowing existing ones to mature without replacement, may also be a factor in the rise of US Treasury yields. No one is willing to say the C-word when it comes to the cause of the rise in Treasury yields, certainly not the corporate shilling business press (CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business) but do you find it a coincidence this is happening at the same time?

Smart for the Russians giving up on US Treasuries to buy Gold when Gold is low. Now people are flocking to Gold as an investment shelter and where to park their money.

Tech stocks led the rout but I still expect cloud and mobile tech companies to shine when they release their earnings this October. This can cause the stock market to rise but this does not solve their fundamental issues about the tech stock bubble.

1. Vulnerability of the China-US tech supply chain due to the trade war. Imagine if tariffs were truly imposed on Apple iPhones.
2. EU leading a movement to cut the US tech giants to size, ranging from fining Google on Android to faxes on Apple, and now Amazon is under investigation.
3. US self inflicted. Wanting to investigate concerns about Facebook and Google, and so on.

Two red indicators on the US economy. Mortgages are down, leading financing firms to cut down their mortgage departments and laying off staff. This will hit the housing and construction industry, and the industries supplying them.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


The second red indicator are car sales. Aluminum and steel tariffs are hurting car manufacturers as well as tariffs on Chinese parts. New trade deals with Canada and Mexico are not going to help when the automobile corporations are going to report their quarterlies. Already Ford is sounding they are going to lose big money and planning to layoff.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Bad for GM, whose stocks have been slumping for months now.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Look to signs on US consumer spending --- car sales, home mortgages, the retail front where we are still having Retailpocalypse (Sears maybe reading to declare bankruptcy soon), and you got a very jittery US stock market.
Click to expand...
Please don't quote globe and mail on oil news. Canadian crude is not rich in bitumen, it is bitumen. It is asphaltene rich, which makes the asphalt used to pave roads. Also because there is a huge discount to Canadian oil due to professional "eco warriors" protests, all paid for by the koch brothers.
 
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