Trade War with China

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manqiangrexue

Brigadier
BAHAHAHAHAHA LOL!!

You guys are HOPELESS!

All you guys do are just personal attack me which has absolutely no effect on me. It only makes me laugh at how idiotic you guys are.

You guys are just a bunch of ostrichs with heads in the sand not willing to come up and see the real picture.


There is no conflict in my argument. Only your poor understanding of logic.
First, if Trump continues his attacks on his own western allies and leaders (he even making it personal), it is only logical these leaders will start fall into China's orbit to counter an aggressive "America First" policy on trade, which eventually lead to a Sino-centric global trade order.
Now, this is an optimistic scenerio - if Trump doesn't start a shooting war with China and allows it to eventuate to that.


But Trump is a narcissistic egomaniac. And he is willing to go at ANY LENGTH to win. And Americans LOVE THAT. It is already demonstrated Americans willing to go blindly into any silly shooting war without thinking because you cannot question your leader when they question YOUR PATRIOTISM.

And with America having at least a sizable lead in TECH and PURE MILITARY POWER, it isn't too far fetch that Trump will wage a war with China to either distract from his scandals at home, or his economic failing (when it starts failing). This is the WORST CASE SCENERIO.
There is no conflict of the 2 arguments. One is best case scenerio, one is worst case scenerio. This only shows your poor understanding of english or logic.

Now, I did say Trump will push that Taiwan button didn't I?
So now they are sailing destroyers over TAIWAN STRAIT. Destroyers that has cruise missiles that can strike Beijing at a moment's notice for a decapitation strike. This is basically Trump's overt warning to Beijing.

They are also stationing US MARINES in Taiwan now too. And there are talks of CVBG doing port calls to Taiwan, and probably making regular visits in the future.
And what's China gonna do when US start BASING in Taiwan AGAIN? (There were US airbases in Taiwan well into 70s)
With US military bases in place, Taiwanese president just might have the backing to declare Taiwanese independence. What's China gonna do then?


Like I said, the destroyers over Taiwan strait is only the beginning move, and Chinese leadership get the message. There are more and more severe "trump cards" Trump can play and Xi and his leadership team KNOWS they cannot allow it eventuate to that degree.
So there is a high chance he will fold. Because he cannot allow Taiwan to be independent, even if he has to suffer short term economic blackmail by Trump.

But the sad thing is you see, TRUMP WANTS EVERYTHING. Just like in the NK deal - he wants NK to completely denuclearized while not even giving any concession.
Once Xi submitted to Trump's economic blackmail, Trump will still do what he sets out to do, he will STILL antagonize China, probably put a few bases in Taiwan, and support Taiwan declaration of independence. That's Trump.
One person laughs at everyone and everyone laughs at 1 person. You can figure out who's crazy from that picture, right? LOL

If you are imagining best and worst case scenarios, then fine, but it has no meaning. I buy a car: best case scenario, I discover my talent for driving and become the world's #1 professional race car driver; worst case scenario I get killed in an accident on my first drive. Nobody can argue against that but it has absolutely no meaning just like your stories.

Just to be clear, are you still imagining best/worst case scenarios? Because if you are, then there's no reason to respond; worst case scenario aliens end the human race tomorrow LOL. But if you're talking about what's likely to happen, then no, you're still way far off. Sailing destroyers through the strait is something Obama did as well. China got the message to back off? Yeah, they got the message by delaying US agricultural imports by 2 weeks customs check to let them rot in port. 2 destroyers have no power to do anything facing China's artillery forces and the entirety of American resolve cannot earn independence for Taiwan; at most, they will get Taiwan killed in the crossfire.

And Americans will NOT go to "any silly shooting war without thinking"; if you paid any attention to actual news, you would know that America picks its shooting wars very carefully, limiting them to non-nuclear technologically-challenged small nations that cannot fight back. Even then, they try to get 25 other little side-kick nations on board in case things somehow still go sideways.
 
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LawLeadsToPeace

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Looks like one of the Republican controlled states is starting to feel the hurt from the tariffs:
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Red-state governor sticks with Trump on China trade war but warns US farmers can’t take much more pain
  • GOP Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson gives “confidence and latitude” to President Trump in the China trade war.
  • “But we feel it’s appropriate to say there is a point that you should not squeeze us further,” Hutchinson says.
  • Hutchinson urges a quick resolution for the sake of the nearly 48,000 family owned farms in his state.
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|
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Published 12 Hours AgoCNBC.com

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Republican
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Gov.
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told CNBC on Monday that he gives “confidence and latitude” to President
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in the
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trade war but urges a quick resolution for the sake of the
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in his state.

“I continue to support the president," Hutchinson said. “But we feel it’s appropriate to say there is a point that you should not squeeze us further.”

The United States and China
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on Friday. American farmers are
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by China’s 25 percent retaliatory duties on everything from meats and dairy to fruits and vegetables to rice and
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.


Agriculture is the No. 1 industry in Arkansas, adding $16 billion per year to
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. Soybeans are Arkansas’ top export to the tune of about $850 million annually.

"With a 25 percent tariff [on soybeans] that'll be likely to be reduced by two-thirds," Hutchinson said on "
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." "Farmers are always the first casualty in a trade war."
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have been under pressure recently.

Hutchinson said a compromise would mutually benefit both the U.S. and China. “We don’t need to be in a position where somebody has got to say ‘uncle.’"
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Looks like one of the Republican controlled states is starting to feel the hurt from the tariffs:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Red-state governor sticks with Trump on China trade war but warns US farmers can’t take much more pain
  • GOP Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson gives “confidence and latitude” to President Trump in the China trade war.
  • “But we feel it’s appropriate to say there is a point that you should not squeeze us further,” Hutchinson says.
  • Hutchinson urges a quick resolution for the sake of the nearly 48,000 family owned farms in his state.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
|
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Published 12 Hours AgoCNBC.com

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Republican
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Gov.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
told CNBC on Monday that he gives “confidence and latitude” to President
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
in the
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
trade war but urges a quick resolution for the sake of the
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
in his state.

“I continue to support the president," Hutchinson said. “But we feel it’s appropriate to say there is a point that you should not squeeze us further.”

The United States and China
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
on Friday. American farmers are
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
by China’s 25 percent retaliatory duties on everything from meats and dairy to fruits and vegetables to rice and
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
.


Agriculture is the No. 1 industry in Arkansas, adding $16 billion per year to
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
. Soybeans are Arkansas’ top export to the tune of about $850 million annually.

"With a 25 percent tariff [on soybeans] that'll be likely to be reduced by two-thirds," Hutchinson said on "
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
." "Farmers are always the first casualty in a trade war."
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
have been under pressure recently.

Hutchinson said a compromise would mutually benefit both the U.S. and China. “We don’t need to be in a position where somebody has got to say ‘uncle.’"
Doesn't sound like he's sticking with Trump at all. Everything he said of substance indicates that he wants Trump to end his push for trade war. He simply opened with an empty positive statement to preface what he actually needed to say, just like when a company writes a letter that says, "Although we were very impressed by your qualifications, we have decided to continue with a different candidate." The company doesn't really think you're awesome; they just want to soften the blow as much as possible before telling you that you were rejected.
 

LawLeadsToPeace

Senior Member
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Registered Member
Doesn't sound like he's sticking with Trump at all. Everything he said of substance indicates that he wants Trump to end his push for trade war. He simply opened with an empty positive statement to preface what he actually needed to say, just like when a company writes a letter that says, "Although we were very impressed by your qualifications, we have decided to continue with a different candidate." The company doesn't really think you're awesome; they just want to soften the blow as much as possible before telling you that you were rejected.
Agreed. Also, the governor can't just openly and aggressively confront Trump since this will lead to turmoil within the Republican party and higher chances of people switching to other parties.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
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I'm no economist and I called this out years ago. That's why US trade figures are a lie. The fact is Americans want to play victim and they'll perpetuate lies to be one. Also they want to take credit for China's success since China is making so much money from Americans. I'm reading how the US will win simply because the US economy is bigger. And the US was suppose to win in Iraq and Afghanistan. Just because you have bigger guns and bigger bombs doesn't mean you're going to win. Peter Navarro who's behind Trump's tariffs argued early on that no country will retaliate on the US with tariffs. I'm also reading how some idiots think because China exports more to the US than the other way around, China will lose because they don't have as many American exports to slap tariffs on. And let's not forget how they think China will starve to death if they don't buy American soybeans to feed its people so China will have to buy American soybeans. Their circuits must be frying because China has wholly stopped buying American soybeans. Maybe they're counting on all those millions of Chinese starving from not being able to eat American soybeans, that the Chinese will revolt against their government too. Also there's news that oil prices might go past a $100 a barrel and it'll hurt China. Remember that story a while ago that the US was angry at China stockpiling buying up more oil than it needs for reserves when it was cheap in case oil prices go up and thus China wouldn't be buying oil? And they forget China can buy oil from the numerous number of oil producing countries that the US has bans on. Maybe they were expecting China to abide by the US's ban list so they have to pay more so Americans can gloat? What are they going to do if China buys oil from them? Slap tariffs?
 

Quickie

Colonel
This remind me some warning on Facebook some time ago; the warning said if you buy things in Thai airport's duty free shop, and they offer you some free gift, you should ask them to include the free gift in the receipt, or when you walk away from the shop, the security guard would catch and accuse you for shoplifting (true or fake, not important). Now the US have transferred their technology (I don't care if these technology is advanced or not) or their companies for money; how come Mr. Trump (not the whole US) could accuse China for stealing? What is Mr. Trump's definition for stealing? Paying money for something in return? If Mr. Trump doesn't know English, teach him! That's called "buying"!

The trouble is you never hear the accusers explaining further what they meant by "forced technology transfer". Did China actually force companies to sell their IPs for money? Was KFC, Nike, Apple forced to sell their IPs to China before they were allowed to set up branches/factories in the country. Of course, a definite negative. It's crazy to even imagine China or any country would implement such measures in their efforts to attract foreign investments.

So what do they meant by "forced technology transfer". You have to ask why they never talked about it even during the tariffs talk between the 2 countries.

Don't be a bit surprised the reason is because it's mostly empty rhetoric and as mundane and expected as sharing of maybe some engineering info between the companies and local suppliers/manufacturers.

When "forced technology transfer" is meant to say something more in line with "forcing companies to sell or transfer the IPs for some amount of money" and it turns out that this kind of things never happened, it is misleading propaganda.
 

SteelBird

Colonel
The trouble is you never hear the accusers explaining further what they meant by "forced technology transfer". Did China actually force companies to sell their IPs for money? Was KFC, Nike, Apple forced to sell their IPs to China before they were allowed to set up branches/factories in the country. Of course, a definite negative. It's crazy to even imagine China or any country would implement such measures in their efforts to attract foreign investments.

So what do they meant by "forced technology transfer". You have to ask why they never talked about it even during the tariffs talk between the 2 countries.

Don't be a bit surprised the reason is because it's mostly empty rhetoric and as mundane and expected as sharing of maybe some engineering info between the companies and local suppliers/manufacturers.

When "forced technology transfer" is meant to say something more in line with "forcing companies to sell or transfer the IPs for some amount of money" and it turns out that this kind of things never happened, it is misleading propaganda.
I wonder if such transactions need related government department's approval? If yes, does Trump also say that those departments were forced to sign approval too?
 
now I read
Commerce ministry introduces policies to relieve impacts of China-U.S. trade frictions
Xinhua| 2018-07-09 22:58:46
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A spokesperson with China's Ministry of Commerce on Monday introduced measures taken to relieve the impacts of China-U.S. trade frictions on companies.

"In response to new U.S. tariffs imposed on July 6, China had to take necessary countermeasures," the spokesperson said.

When formulating the list of U.S. products that would be subject to countermeasure tariffs, China took into full consideration the substitutability of the imported products and the overall impacts on trade and investment, the spokesperson said.

At the same time, China will take the following measures:

-- Continuously evaluate the impacts on different kinds of companies.

-- The new tax income from the countermeasures will be mainly used to relieve the impacts on companies and their employees.

-- Encourage companies to adjust import structure, and increase the imports of agricultural products such as soybeans and soybean meal, aquatic products, and automobiles from other countries and regions.

-- Step up the implementation of the guidelines released by the State Council on June 15 on making active and effective use of foreign investment and promoting high-quality economic development to reinforce the protection of corporate interests and create a better investment environment.

The spokesperson added that the policies will be constantly improved, and opinions and suggestions in this respect will be welcomed.

"For companies that are severely impacted, we suggest they report to local government departments," the spokesperson said.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
The trouble is you never hear the accusers explaining further what they meant by "forced technology transfer". Did China actually force companies to sell their IPs for money? Was KFC, Nike, Apple forced to sell their IPs to China before they were allowed to set up branches/factories in the country. Of course, a definite negative. It's crazy to even imagine China or any country would implement such measures in their efforts to attract foreign investments.

So what do they meant by "forced technology transfer". You have to ask why they never talked about it even during the tariffs talk between the 2 countries.

Don't be a bit surprised the reason is because it's mostly empty rhetoric and as mundane and expected as sharing of maybe some engineering info between the companies and local suppliers/manufacturers.

When "forced technology transfer" is meant to say something more in line with "forcing companies to sell or transfer the IPs for some amount of money" and it turns out that this kind of things never happened, it is misleading propaganda.

While there is certainly pressure and incentives for foreign companies to partner up with a local Chinese company, no one is putting a gun to the heads of western execs forcing them to do it.

The reality is that a lot of the times, western firms partner up and share tech to get favourable treatment.

So, for example, for medicines, rather than spend years and millions doing clinical trials to pass Chinese FDA requirements, foreign companies can partner up with a connected local player, who could get the necessary approvals without as much clinical trials.

Similarly, a lot of the time foreign medical companies partner up with local Chinese companies to qualify to be added to Chinese National Insurance approved products list. That would vastly increase the sales of any medicines.

It’s all about the bottom line for these foreign companies.

The company I currently work for don’t share any of its IP, but it is still selling well in China. It just need to use local distributors rather than being able to go through a direct local sales units, although even that is just a choice made on profitability grounds, since we do have a sales unit in China (two if counting HK). It’s just more profitably to use the existing networks of the local distributors rather than invest to build our own.

That’s the ultimate dirty secret of western companies operating in China. They are not forced to share IP, they choose to do it to take advantage of government incentive programmes to maximise profits.

They don’t mention all the tax breaks, reduced regulation and even direct government grants and low/zero interest loads etc that they get for partnering up with local players and sharing tech. They see that as a ‘god given right’, and instead are annoyed that the Chinese would have the gall to demand something in return for all these incentives they are offering.
 
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