China is not unprepared for the heightened level of Sinophobia by America in the past year, as strategic planners have no doubt been assessing such scenarios for a long time. However, it is quite obvious that there is a widespread sense of disillusionment among Chinese online and within academic/elite circles with the government's especially boastful propaganda over the past few years, considering that China still has many glaring weaknesses in its development compared to the US. I don't think it's misleading to conclude that the sharp, far-reaching downturn in Sino-American relations has caught many in Zhongnanhai by surprise.
The online community and academics are like your yahoo comments section and hardly represents anything.
What western media and analysts are doing is literally the same as someone trying to gauge US government policy and popular sentiment from yahoo news comments sections.
The fact that Sino-US relations was due a downturn was entirely expected. Why do you think the PLA had the completion date of its modernisation set as 2020 from so many years ago?
The closer the growing challenger country approaches the power level of the encombant dominant country, the greater the risk of conflict, as the encombent feels the window rapidly closing on its opportunity to exploit what diminishing comparative advantages it has to try and force a showdown while the odds are still in its favour.
The choice between Hillary and Trump was not which one would be pro or anti China, it was basically a given that both would be rabidly anti-China.
The key difference between the two was how effectively they might be able to screw with China.
In that regards, China lucked out with Trump, since he is as busy fighting with America’s traditional allies as he is set to try and check China’s advance; whereas Hillary would undoubtably have tried to get as many powers as possible to gang up on China.
While the timing might have caught some by surprise, no one in Zhongnanhai should have been surprised at all that this showdown has now apparently started to come to a head.
They might be disappointed that it is happening, or happening now, but this would have been something that anyone in power in China should have always known as a possible, or even likely development.
And of course China is not going to be fully prepared for this showdown. That is simply impossible with the level of trade between China and America.
Part of the hedge calculation was that the degree of interdependence would blunt American options and desires to try to damage China, since America would be hurting its own interests as much as China’s with a trade war.
One could argue that this approach is still working to some extent in staying Trump’s hand, and also in limiting his actual options.
He may tweet mighty threats, but he will find massive internal resistance at all levels if he tries to follow through with his threatened tarrifs.
Hell, his team could not even find enough clean targets to implement the full initial 50bn he originally promised, and even that has generated pushback from within his own ranks. As he runs out of ‘soft’ targets and low hanging fruit, the internal pain and pushback from further tarrifs will increase exponentially.
It is also unclear at this point just how serious old ‘fire and fury’ is
about fighting a full trade war with China, and how much is just his usual hyperbole bluster.
But as the saying goes, you don’t have to be able to outrun the tiger, you just have to be able to outrun the guy next to you.
In that regards, as unprepared as China might be, America is far far less prepared both materially and psychologically to withstand the pain of a full blown trade war with China. And as things as going, it’s increasingly looking like it’s going to be a trade war with not just China, but pretty much the rest of the world.
The issue isn’t, and has never been one of whether China is fully prepared for this trade war. That is on par with asking if China will suffer any pain from a trade war. It is entirely disingenuous to phrase the question like that, since it is a loaded question designed to produce the self-serving answer the Western writes of that piece wanted. The key question is and has always been, is China more prepared, willing, and able to fight and win this trade war.
The answer to that is, yes, yes and maybe.
If this trade war kicks off fully, the damage will be far reaching and ugly.
But at the end of the day, whether one won or lost depends as much on the criteria as the actual results.