Think 2012 was a major year for the PLA? If so, then better prepare for 2013.

P

PanAsian

Major
I agree that consolidation would be the key word.

Progress towards mass production on all types of truly domestic engines will definitely be nice, for fighters, for transports, for helos, for nuclear subs, maybe diesels for surface ships... even new chassis for the Type 99 (or whatever designation the latest MBT takes) if that counts.

Progress on anti-submarine warfare in terms of more dedicated planes, helos, and Type 056 variant with more exercises.

A stealth UAV, flights and demos of existing combat capable UAVs. If I'm not mistaken there isn't much out there about actual flights and demos of China's combat capable UAVs right?

There haven't been much new information on ground forces either but I hope that further mechanization, upgrading of vehicles (modern IFVs, true MRAP) and personnel (body armor), and realistic exercises are taking place throughout the force especially for non-top-tier forces.
 
L

luhai

Banned Idiot
Well, so far we already have

1. First flight of Y-20. (more or less expected in 2011)

2. A mid course missile interception test (despite my doubts). However, I still think it's a mistake to pursuit in this direction. Perhaps it's a tell tale sign about a shift in doctrine of PLA thinking. From 1990s onward, China has more or less discarded the idea of fighting a great power war and focus instead on winning a small, short and limited regional war. (1988 Nansha Skirmish on the small end, 1962 Sino-Indian War on the large end) Hence we see very limited deployment of almost all modern developments (from modern IFVs to modern ships to modern aircraft) and no focus strategic weapons. Recent development seems to buck this trend. We have seen new design going serial production from day one, and apparent refocus on strategic weapon. This could mean that the Chinese new leadership now sees possibility of great power clashes is possible if not likely and Chinese military thus it's armaments are tailor this that sort of conflict. Which makes me wonder will China abandon minimal deterrence and starts to pursue full countervalue capability to the level of mutual assured destruction. (~1000+ survivable nukes)
 
J

jobjed

Captain
luhai said:
2. A mid course missile interception test (despite my doubts). However, I still think it's a mistake to pursuit in this direction. Perhaps it's a tell tale sign about a shift in doctrine of PLA thinking. From 1990s onward, China has more or less discarded the idea of fighting a great power war and focus instead on winning a small, short and limited regional war. (1988 Nansha Skirmish on the small end, 1962 Sino-Indian War on the large end) Hence we see very limited deployment of almost all modern developments (from modern IFVs to modern ships to modern aircraft) and no focus strategic weapons. Recent development seems to buck this trend. We have seen new design going serial production from day one, and apparent refocus on strategic weapon. This could mean that the Chinese new leadership now sees possibility of great power clashes is possible if not likely and Chinese military thus it's armaments are tailor this that sort of conflict. Which makes me wonder will China abandon minimal deterrence and starts to pursue full countervalue capability to the level of mutual assured destruction. (~1000+ survivable nukes)
Click to expand...

Missile interception technology is essential whether or not you plan to fight a great power. If the US and China had a full scale nuclear war, the missile shields of both countries are irrelevant due to the sheer number of warheads. These shields are meant to defend against limited nuclear powers or against stray missiles that have gone off-course.

I don't see how having interception technology conflicts with the doctrine of fighting a high-tech war. In fact, in a limited high-tech theatre, the interception technology will probably be the most high-tech thing on the battlefield.
 
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Mysterre

Mysterre

Banned Idiot
luhai said:
This could mean that the Chinese new leadership now sees possibility of great power clashes is possible if not likely and Chinese military thus it's armaments are tailor this that sort of conflict. Which makes me wonder will China abandon minimal deterrence and starts to pursue full countervalue capability to the level of mutual assured destruction. (~1000+ survivable nukes)
Click to expand...
China has long moved beyond minimal deterrance IMO. There is a distinct possibility that China has already moved beyond limited deterrance as well and is hiding a massive nuclear arsenal inside its subterranean network of tunnels.
 
M

mr.bean

Junior Member
luhai said:
Well, so far we already have

1. First flight of Y-20. (more or less expected in 2011)

2. A mid course missile interception test (despite my doubts). However, I still think it's a mistake to pursuit in this direction. Perhaps it's a tell tale sign about a shift in doctrine of PLA thinking. From 1990s onward, China has more or less discarded the idea of fighting a great power war and focus instead on winning a small, short and limited regional war. (1988 Nansha Skirmish on the small end, 1962 Sino-Indian War on the large end) Hence we see very limited deployment of almost all modern developments (from modern IFVs to modern ships to modern aircraft) and no focus strategic weapons. Recent development seems to buck this trend. We have seen new design going serial production from day one, and apparent refocus on strategic weapon. This could mean that the Chinese new leadership now sees possibility of great power clashes is possible if not likely and Chinese military thus it's armaments are tailor this that sort of conflict. Which makes me wonder will China abandon minimal deterrence and starts to pursue full countervalue capability to the level of mutual assured destruction. (~1000+ survivable nukes)
Click to expand...


i think china is interested in all cutting edge military technology. missiles (all types) and anti missile defence technology is one area that china cannot be left behind.
 
Equation

Equation

Lieutenant General
For me I expect 2013 to see more development of the missile defense shield, J-31, more subs and frigates and Y-20 development along with the Soaring Dragon UAV.
 
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