The War in the Ukraine

phrozenflame said:

1. I'm not American. 2. There are like 10 operational Su-57s vs 100s of F-35s if not 1000+. Same for Armata, have you anything from that program on the battlefield? No. The first line you post saying Russian govt are bunch of idiots, then your entire post is about justifying it by trying to say Americans are bigger idiots. Americans arent the ones loosing the fight. They're spending peanuts to eat up the Russians.

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you are not counting the 4 times higher gas prices in Europa and every thing else associated with it. start with Food. The more energy US export to Europa the higher the prices US consumers pay for domestic.
It is not the direct cost but bigger indirect cost to society that matters.

phrozenflame said:

1. I'm not American. 2. There are like 10 operational Su-57s vs 100s of F-35s if not 1000+. Same for Armata, have you anything from that program on the battlefield? No. The first line you post saying Russian govt are bunch of idiots, then your entire post is about justifying it by trying to say Americans are bigger idiots. Americans arent the ones loosing the fight. They're spending peanuts to eat up the Russians.

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The Americans are eating the goose that used to lay the golden eggs by harvesting Europe. Sure it will look great in the short term for the US. But in the long term they are just screwing themselves over by making the overall GDP of the whole cohort of them and their allies decrease.

There are no 10 operational Su-57s. More like 6. There are 4 with red numbers and 2 with blue numbers. The ones with red numbers are in combat formations. The ones with blue numbers are in a flight test center. Russia, unlike the US, cannot afford to build hundreds of half baked planes, like the US did with the F-35, so they are only going to build a limited amount of fighters and ramp up production once Project Megapolis aka Su-57M finishes development. As for the F-35 it will only meet the initial design specs when Block 4 comes out. In the meantime they will have manufactured hundreds of aircraft which cannot even be upgraded to Block 4. Lockheed Martin had to admit as much. So those aircraft will likely be used for pilot training. A really expensive trainer aircraft.

Not that Russia needs any Su-57 aircraft to fight Ukraine. The aircraft the Russians have are more than adequate and overmatch what Ukraine is fielding. I do not think putting the Su-57, as is, in service over Ukraine in vast numbers would have significantly helped with things. Russia's main issues with their air force has been with the ground attack aircraft like the Su-34M and the Su-25. The Su-35 has been working just fine doing its job as an air dominance fighter. And I think to a large degree the main issue is a mismatch between ground attack aircraft sensors and lack of modern stand-off weapons more than the aircraft themselves.

The Russians have modernized most of their aircraft fleet with the purchase of the Su-34 and the Su-35. Upgrade programs for the Su-34 will enable that aircraft to be used for longer. A large expansion of the available fleet would require more pilots.

Russia right now is having problems getting enough trainer aircraft to vastly accelerate pilot training. For example Yak-130 trainer aircraft production was 12 aircraft in 2005, 55 aircraft in 2011, 18 aircraft in 2013, 22 aircraft in 2014, 25 aircraft in 2020.

Notice the huge gaps in Yak-130 deliveries between 2005 and 2011, then 2014 and 2020. The first aircraft built in 2005 were basically prototypes which only passed tests in late 2009. Then production started gradually. But in 2014 after the annexation of Crimea Russia lost access to the Al-222 engine which used to be imported from Ukraine. They only managed to replace that with their own produced engine at UEC Klimov in late 2019. The Yak-152 propeller trainer aircraft program had similar issues. It was supposed to use a German engine, RED A03 V12 diesel, and it got hit with EU sanctions in 2014. A "German" engine designed by a Russian designer with Russian capital but located and built in Germany. They still have not replaced that engine and are still working on it. I have heard proposals to use either a piston engine modified from the engine in the Aurus limousine or a turboprop. So basically no Yak-152 are in service.

MortyandRick said:

But doesnt that rely on the assumption that Ukraine actually had massive losses. Other than hearing it from Russian side, wheres the evidence for these massive losses? Interesting theory but could also be cope. I do agree that Russia seems to try and avoid any significant loss in personnel which makes it harder for them to hold onto land.

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You can collaborate it indirectly.

The increasing use of mercenaries to lead assaults.
Multiple mobilizations, including women.
Constantly pleading for arms, and NATO allies keep digging into their older and older stockpiles.
The increasing use of civilian pickups and SUVs, which threatens to increase casualties further with unprotected vehicles.
This is not to say that the Russians took some hard casualties on their own.

Kozak 2 armored personnel carrier takes a hit and burning. Putting that white identification strip on their vehicles, won't that make it easier to spot by drones?


PMC Wagner using ATGMs on armored vehicles.

sheogorath said:

No, it doesn't. There was an article posted here already pointing out how 7 years after receiving their first F-16, Romania is still not proficient on F-16's use.

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This is very unpleasant for me, please give me a link, it's very interesting and important. I thank you in advance if you don't mind. My respect

Ukrainians believe that 3(!!!) months will be enough, but Russian experts consider it suicide.

" Purely theoretically, it is enough for an experienced military pilot to simply switch to an aircraft of a similar class," Air Force Reserve Major General Vladimir Popov told Gazeta.ru. - But three months is enough just to switch over to the basics of piloting, takeoff and landing, the flight itself, but not the combat use, which requires a longer time. Again we are talking about retraining for American F-16 and F-15 fighters, which have their own features and are markedly different from the MiG-29 and Su-27 flown by Ukrainian pilots.
The tactics of aerial combat are different there, as are the actions in pairs or groups of planes, and many other peculiarities. In three months the Americans will train the Ukrainians not as pilots but as suicide bombers.

At that the General underlined that training of pilots alone "is obviously not enough".

"Another essential nuance is the training of engineering personnel, who will be rather difficult to maintain the American machines. They also need to be trained and that's obviously not three months either."
Source:

tabu said:

This is very unpleasant for me, please give me a link, it's very interesting and important. I thank you in advance if you don't mind. My respect

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From trained pilots and maintainers to required infrastructure to a boneyard of spare aircraft, Romania has been working on its transition to the F-16 for nearly a decade.

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“Even we struggle at this point, and we started enhancing and getting the F-16 like seven or eight years ago, and we’re still not yet there,” Beraczko said.

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Graduates, he said, “will be combat ready, in a sense. [But] they will not have the experience to make tactical decisions in the scenarios that they might see.”

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A Su-35 was spotted with two R-77-1, two R-73, 1 Kh-31 and 2 R-37M. Probably a SEAD and CAP mission?

tabu said:

This is very unpleasant for me, please give me a link, it's very interesting and important. I thank you in advance if you don't mind. My respect

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Here is the post about it

LawLeadsToPeace said:

Romania's transition from Mig's to F-16's can give us glimpse of how Ukraine may fare in this theoretical transition:

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Here is the key part:
Romanian Air Force pilot Capt. Alexandru Beraczko, 28, is one of two Romanians now in basic combat flight training in Arizona. He previously participated in U.S. Air Force programs at Lackland and Randolph Air Force Bases, Texas, Columbus Air Force Base, Miss., and Vance Air Force Base, Okla.

“I’ve been trained in the mindset to fly the MiG-21 before,” said Beraczko of his Romanian Alpha Jet training, which has the same avionics as the MiG-21. He’s also familiar with the MiG-29 flown by Ukraine.

“Getting [to] the F-16 from the MiG-29—it’s a way different airframe,” Beraczko told Air Force Magazine by phone from Tucson. “The heads-up display, even the missiles they are running, they have different cool times, different intelligence. Bear in mind they need to apply different tactics. Air tactics are different.”

Romania joined the NATO Partnership for Peace in 1994 shortly after independence and became a full NATO member 10 years later. Each step was a shift to the Western way of warfare.

From trained pilots and maintainers to required infrastructure to a boneyard of spare aircraft, Romania has been working on its transition to the F-16 for nearly a decade.

“Even we struggle at this point, and we started enhancing and getting the F-16 like seven or eight years ago, and we’re still not yet there,” Beraczko said. “We are so close; we are wanting and willing to be there as personnel, as maintenance, as even a force.”

A U.S. Air Force spokesperson said foreign countries seeking to train fighter pilots in the United States would typically begin with a few weeks in the T-6 trainer aircraft before spending a few months flying the faster T-38. Once the training is complete, the pilot can enroll in the basic course for combat pilots.

The majority of the course uses the F-16C model, since most pilots will be flying single-seat aircraft when they return home.

Graduating students reach a wingman level and are expected to continue flying with close supervision for 500 hours.

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A Ukrainian soldier cries, telling of the massive losses. With English subtitles:

Wagner is often referred to as the Orchestra, and it's PMCs are referred to as musicians.



Fighting along highway in Donbass. More videos now coming from the area.

sheogorath said:

A Su-35 was spotted with two R-77-1, two R-73, 1 Kh-31 and 2 R-37M. Probably a SEAD and CAP mission?

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Here is the post about it

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I assume that it takes from 9 to 12 months of intensive training for Ukrainian pilots to switch from MiG to F-16, but most military pilots see this problem in a better way and look for solutions. Here is one of them expressed his position this way:

"The Mig 29 and the F 16 are aircraft of the same class and tasks.
For a well-prepared pilot, the MiG 29, to take over the F 16, does not represent great difficulty and long training.
Approximately 4 weeks of theoretical training. About 10 hours in the simulator, and 9-10 weeks of intensive flight training directly on the F 16. For all types of training.
Romanians cite their experience when they started from "below the plinth" level. So, practically zero pilot goes straight to F 16. Yes, it's quite a long time. Up to 2 years on the job.
ZSU SAR has a group of trained pilots, and there are candidates for the full 2 year course.
Western aircraft , very comfortable and made for the pilot. There, with a sensible approach to retraining, everything is very easy. Especially the US planes.
The most "abstruse" are the Mirages, but they are also the most versatile.
Switching from Soviet to Western equipment is a pleasure. It's like going from an UAZ to a Geelandwagon. The tasks are the same, but the Helik is better, although the UAZ in capable hands is not a bad car."

Missiles incoming in Ukraine. There is a mass launch of X-101 missiles in Ukraine with Tu-95 bombers from the Volgograd-Astrakhan region.