The War in the Ukraine

sheogorath said:

While pathetic and unfortunate, the war is not over yet and the Dniper, while also making the life difficult for the Russians to mantain control of the West bank of Kherson, will also make life miserable for the Ukrainians.

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The war is far from over. The mobiks (hopefully, from the russian pov) are not deployed yet and are still undergoing training. Autumn mud season is just about to wrap up. Then we will see how well the two sides have prepared for the freezing cold. Once the ground is relatively solid again, we'll see larger offensives until March. Raputitsa favors the defender.

If I were Russia, reconstitute the troops from Kherson and form them into a fighting force, probaby intermixed with mobiks to give them real experience as they come out of training. Hold the line until that force was ready and then kick off an offensive either out of Belarus or from Belgorod: threaten the rear of the logistics of the armies facing Russia in Lugansk and Donetsk.

If I were the Ukrainians, Hold the line from Kreminna to Donetsk. Push into Svatove and Starobilsk and then swing south towards Lugansk. Cut logistics (via rail) and force more withdrawals. Crossing the Dniepr is a bad idea for the next offensive.

Can the Russians pull together a coherent offensive then? Will the Ukrainians have another success on another front? Will the war look any different than what we've seen so far?

Time will tell and all we can do is watch to learn.

Broccoli said:

Militaries can operate without civilian infrastructure so hitting civilians won't save Russian soldiers on frontlines and is only showing how frustrated Kremlin actually is.

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Right. The Allies bombing Dresden was also just a measure of how frustrated and helpless they were.

anzha said:

If I were the Ukrainians, Hold the line from Kreminna to Donetsk. Push into Svatove and Starobilsk and then swing south towards Lugansk. Cut logistics (via rail) and force more withdrawals. Crossing the Dniepr is a bad idea for the next offensive.

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Thing is, they will be forced to in order to mantain the momentum to fulfil their threats of taking back all of Ukraine and marching all the way to Vladivostok(and keeping the support for them in the West).

And if they don't, they will be forced to anyway by their benefactors in the west.

kokole said:

Surovikin:

- Russia does not think it necessary nor wise to continue fighting in this region of Kherson. According to Surovikin, Kherson and adjacent settlements cannot be fully supplied & function, & people's lives are constantly in danger. It is proposed to take up defense along the left bank of the Dnieper. Keeping a grouping of troops on the right bank is futile. The City of Kherson and adjoining communities are unable to supply and function. The implementation of the enemy's plans to create a flood zone below the Kakhovska HPP may lead to dangerous consequences. The most feasible option is to organize defense along the barrier line of the Dnieper River. The freed forces will be used for offensive operations.

- Around 115,000 people have been evacuated & remaining troops will go to the left bank of the Dnieper. The withdrawal of troops & remaining civilian population will be carried out ASAP. In the next few days, Kherson will come under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

- This is a clear military decision rather than political surrender. The west will of course twist it in this way. But Russia has always valued life over mostly everything.

- In October, the Ukrainian army lost over 12,000 soldiers. Our losses are 7-8 times less than the enemy's losses.

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The only way to prove it's a tactical withdrawal rather than a rout is to scorched earth Kherson city on the west bank. Move everything of value away, mine the rest.

Overbom said:

Sounds like a bad deal for Russia and Putin would actually be throwing a very hot potato to the next Russian leader.

A Ukraine that had to give up its lands would be so angry and feeling so humiliated that they would turn into Israel 2.0. Seeing that no one in the Russian elite has any strategic thinking, I could very well see them going with it.

If Russia couldn't even deal with this 2022 Ukraine, then I dont think they are going to like a 2030 or 2040 Ukraine

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Ukraine in 2030 is going to have a population of 20 million or so with a GDP per capita of 2000 USD, going by their economic losses, immediate refugee fleeing and prior demographic trends.

anzha said:

More seriously, are the images released of the trench system being dug in northern Crimea training drills? Or just precautions

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Wagner were spottes building trenches and installing dragon teeth in their area.

And there are images of trucks with dragon teeth alegedly in Mariupol

I realized that the Russian military almost looks like a European military from the times before European kings managed to assert their authority over regional lords. Before then kings had a little part of their country under their direct control. Even though they were the sovereigns of the other parts of their countries, they weren't actually managing the lands. When they needed soldiers, most of the army was mobilized, sent and, sometimes, even led by the local lords and nobilities. To give a popular culture reference to describe how armies were raised, think of the Seven Kingdoms from the Game of Thrones.
The concentration of martial power under central governments happened mostly after the Thirty Years' War and then the French Revolution. Nowadays, almost every national government holds a monopoly over martial power and has a standing national military. That national military commands a vast majority of the country's martial power. You don't see modern nations clumping together a lot of different regional armed organizations to wage war.

Now let's look at the Russian forces in Ukraine:
- Russian Armed Forces. The standing national military of Russia.
- Rosgvardiya. It is like a gendarmerie but is uniquely independent of the national military and ministries. It is effectively a second military.
- LPR and DNR armies. The militaries of recently annexed de-facto republics. Separate from the Russian Armed Forces.
- Various police forces from Russia. I have no idea who is commanding them.
- Militias from various parts of Ukraine. Again, I have no idea who is commanding them.
- Chechen forces. Another military force from Russia that is independent from the Russian national military. But this time, it is raised, trained, and commanded by a local governor.
- Wagner and a lot of other mercenaries. Largely independent from the Russian Armed Forces.

Russophiles here, I am sorry but this is not how a modern nation wages war. This is a widely inefficient organization. It makes coordinated action and uniformity impossible. This is how military forces looked until the late-1700s. I am not sure how Russian Federation ended up like this. The results are easily observable, though.

sheogorath said:

Wagner were spottes building trenches and installing dragon teeth in their area.

And there are images of trucks with dragon teeth alegedly in Mariupol

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I've seen them in the east and on southern front, in the Wagner areas among others, but not in Crimea proper until today.

Lot of copium today. Just take a breath and relax. At least you aren't the poor Russian soldier who is being played like a puppet by his superiors. How much blood and lives has Russia shed for Kherson? All of this, for nothing.

This is a strategic retreat. Once Russia retreats to the other side of the river, its chances of regaining back that lost land is almost nil. A fine mess indeed, made by the you-know-who guy.

FairAndUnbiased said:

Ukraine in 2030 is going to have a population of 20 million or so with a GDP per capita of 2000 USD, going by their economic losses, immediate refugee fleeing and prior demographic trends.

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Their population would be about 10x times more radicalised and about 10x more committed to killing Russians.

Hate is a powerful thing, I wouldn't underestimate it if I was you. I would much rather face a "strong" but peaceful Ukraine than a hateful and radicalised poor Ukraine

Overbom said:

Lot of copium today. Just take a breath and relax. At least you aren't the poor Russian soldier who is being played like a puppet by his superiors. How much blood and lives has Russia shed for Kherson? All of this, for nothing.

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On the issue of blood, not much Russian blood has been shed. All of Russia's poor military performance can be explained by the simple observation that Russia cannot politically afford mass casualties. Ukraine can; that's an asymmetry Russia must take into consideration and it seems Surovikin has with his state-destruction campaign.

Overbom said:

This is a strategic retreat. Once Russia retreats to the other side of the river, its chances of regaining back that lost land is almost nil. A fine mess indeed, made by the you-know-who guy.

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Russia is not going to get thousands of its soldiers killed over a city. Sucks, especially for those who put themselves under Russia's protection and didn't evacuate, but that's just how it is. A few square kilometers here and there don't matter, what Russia is after is the destruction of the Ukrainian state.

Overbom said:

Their population would be about 10x times more radicalised and about 10x more committed to killing Russians.

Hate is a powerful thing, I wouldn't underestimate it if I was you. I would much rather face a "strong" but peaceful Ukraine than a hateful and radicalised poor Ukraine

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They're already radicalized and their hatred is at maximum. Ten times maximum isn't any more maximum. Ukrainians hated Russia before, they'll hate it cold and hungry now.