Ukraine has agreed to the U.S. peace plan with only "some minor details to be sorted out", an American official told CBS News on Tuesday. Top Kyiv security official Rustem Umerov appeared to confirm the report, writing on X this morning that Ukraine had reached an understanding on the "core terms" of the U.S. peace plan during the discussions in Geneva. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to travel to the White House later this month to finalize the agreement.
I personally believe that these "peace talks" will collapse, but we'll see. I'm not quite convinced that the Russian side is ready for the war to end... I also believe that Russia will want some sort of mechanism that can formally justify resuming hostilities. I.E., clear tripwires and redlines.
If this war does end... the rather humorous thing, at least to me, is if Ukraine and Europe simply admitted that their maximalist demands are unreasonable and unreachable, then it is entirely possible to paint this war and this outcome as a massive strategic Russian defeat.
In the end, with this treaty, Ukraine floats out of Russian sovereignty closer to its desired end-state, which is full alignment with the West. This peace treaty essentially solidifies Ukraine's sovereignty and its exit out of Russia's influence. Which is a massive Ukrainian win in the long-term, even if the short and medium-term consequences have been disastrous for the country.