The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
Footage of a Russian Iskander missile with a cluster warhead hitting Ukrainian drone operators. The video was filmed near the village of Iverskoye in Donetsk Oblast. The site was being used to prepare for the launch of UJ-22 and Palyanitsa long-range drones. According to media reports, the missile strike killed about 40 soldiers, damaged 16 trucks and a large number of drones. The video shows explosions of ammunition near the drones.
The problem — aside from Trump's propensity for erratic behavior — is that shuttle diplomacy often translates into a telephone game, especially in this instance given the number of parties involved (i.e. Ukraine, Russia, US, EU, UK, etc), and the complexities of the issues in contention (i.e. territories, sanctions, security guarantees, NATO expansion, etc).
While a backroom deal might already exist, the term sheet almost certainly looks materially different from the Russian and Ukrainian perspectives. So even if some sort of ceasefire is reached on the basis of said backroom deal, it's highly unlikely to be sustainable.
Both Putin and Zelensky need a peace deal that they can sell to their respective constituents without jeopardizing their own (political) survival, and that is perhaps the most challenging aspect of the conundrum.
While this may sound unpleasant, the fastest and easiest path to peace is for Zelensky to be removed from the equation: the price of peace will be bitter for the Ukrainian public to swallow, and they'll need his political career and legacy — if not his head — as chaser.
Until that happens, anything more than a temporary ceasefire will likely remain elusive.