Rybar's last map for Bakhmut didn't show anything resembling a cauldron forming either
The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
Cus it's Zelensky telling foreigners he'll pay them more than a Ukrainian month's salary if they make pro-Ukr posts on Twitter. I almost LOL'd at the office when I read, "I wish I could post videos of the death without getting Twitter banned..." like a dude making up an excuse nobody asked for when trying to return used tools at Home Depot.
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Ukranian offensive is pushed back, in which what seems a french VAB(edit: it is a Patria Pasi) gets vaporized while the leading AFV returns to the spot of the APC and gets disabled as well. Leftover crews try to make a run for the forest belt but gets hit with artillery.
For so many years the Russians have been threatening the Armats, which have armoured pods, where the tankers are safe, but when it comes to war they want to put the tankers not into them, but into a tank of 1962 (!!!!)!
They put active protection on the T-62, because by increasing the thickness of the armor the crew cannot be protected. But is there any protection against Javelins & Co.?
Т-64...T-90 are better "anti-tank tanks" than the T-62. And they have better frontal projection protection. And a bonus is better mobility. But the need for "anti-tank tanks" has disappeared since the end of the Cold War, and has only reappeared now in Ukraine. So if the T-62 really was better for low-intensity conflict then no T-90s would have appeared in the 90s, and the T-72s and T-80s would have gone into mass storage at the same time, and the Russian army would have adopted the upgraded T-55s and T-62s to fight on them in Chechnya and so on. But as we can see, that is not what happened. So I stand by my opinion: the T-62 is considerably inferior even to the early T-72A (not to mention the more modern machines), and its mass return to service is a passing off of need for virtue. The T-72 and above appear to be impossible to bring back into service in significant numbers and in a reasonable amount of time.
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The Washington Post :
"Ukrainian forces continued their advance against the Russian military in the southern Kherson region Tuesday, pushed back Russian mercenaries from Bakhmut in eastern Donetsk, and gained new momentum in Luhansk, where they seized a key highway between the towns of Kreminna and Svatove.
On a day of heavy fighting and fast-moving developments across multiple combat zones, the Ukrainians appeared to extend their recent success in recapturing occupied territories and in pushing Moscow’s troops into retreat in areas that President Vladimir Putin has claimed now belong to Russia."
No claim of a 'cauldron' but the Russians do seem to have suffered another significant setback around Bakhmut, and they still seem to be losing territory, which suggests battlefield defeats, more than a month after partial mobilization of reserves. If the Russians cannot even stabilize their front it's hard to see how they can achieve any of their aims.
"Ukrainian forces continued their advance against the Russian military in the southern Kherson region Tuesday, pushed back Russian mercenaries from Bakhmut in eastern Donetsk, and gained new momentum in Luhansk, where they seized a key highway between the towns of Kreminna and Svatove.
On a day of heavy fighting and fast-moving developments across multiple combat zones, the Ukrainians appeared to extend their recent success in recapturing occupied territories and in pushing Moscow’s troops into retreat in areas that President Vladimir Putin has claimed now belong to Russia."
No claim of a 'cauldron' but the Russians do seem to have suffered another significant setback around Bakhmut, and they still seem to be losing territory, which suggests battlefield defeats, more than a month after partial mobilization of reserves. If the Russians cannot even stabilize their front it's hard to see how they can achieve any of their aims.
What do you think it is the point of things like the Griffin or the Type 15?.
Because Russia still had NATO itching for a fight despite the fall of the Soviet Union, and while the T-62 might be good enough, it obviously isn't enough against Leopards 2 and M1.
The T-62M has better add-on armor than Ukrane's T-72M received from Poland, Bulgaria and the Czechs. Let's not forget that T-72M actually have thinner and not-as-good composite armor as the T-72A's.
For comparison, this is the glacis of a polish T-72M
Here you can see a T-62M getting hit with an ATGM over one of the composite add-ons with the crew surviving and making an escape
So, considering that the Ukranians don't have modern APFSDS rounds in any of their tanks, in certain scenarios a T-62 might be good enough. And a T-62M with upgraded thermals and rangefinders will have a detection advantage over Ukraine's T-72M and what's left of the T-64 fleet outside of the Bulats.
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The T-64 mod 2017 from Ukraine has thermal sights, digital encrypted radio, and battlefield computer with GPS integration.
And we have started seeing some T-72M variants with thermal sights appear as well.
Likewise I think you are not factoring in the other side of the equation here ... TOF or Time of Flight? These are not laser beams. Missiles and shells do not instantly bridge the gap from point of launch to target impact.
Consider;
- Time of Flight for a M30/M31 to climb high enough to be painted by a counter battery radar and a firing location calculated ... ? Say 30s to a minute
- Time to calculate firing solution?
- Time of Flight for say an Iskander M to reach the firing point from about 200km out? assuming 2km/s, that's also nearly 2 minutes
In an ideal situation with all the planets aligned, you have 3 minutes to hit a moving target with no means to refine a firing solution or provide terminal guidance cos you do not have eyes on target.
What can screw up the perfection?
Consider AFU attempts to combine SEAD missions with deep GMLRS strikes. Rudimentary as their SEAD capabilities may be, do you leave your CBR on constant illum for an ARM to come down your throat? If not, how does that affect your ability to detect and locate incoming?
Do you have a whole bunch of Tochka or Iskanders sitting around, immobile in ready to fire posture tasked solely to counter-battery? If not, add more minutes to the counter battery kill chain.
etc, etc, etc ...
So how far can a truck scoot in 3+ minutes? Far enough that you need not 1 Tochka/Iskander but many many to blanket the expanding circle that the Himars could have displaced to, even worse if the displaced location is a dug in shelter.
It's not bureaucracy or CC issues, it's just the realities of having the right pieces in the right places at the right time In The Real World™