The War in the Ukraine

Phead128 said:

It's more difficult to bleed the buffalo out when:

1. The spear didn't hit any critical arteries in the buffalo (e.g., no critical main infrastructure, powerplant, bridges, etc...), so you aren't really engaging in a bleed-out (e.g., attritional warfare) when you aren't targeting the buffalo's jugular vein (e.g. high-value dual-use targets) or buffalo's brain (e.g., leadership center in Kiev).
2. The spear isn't even hitting buffalo's momma which is providing vital milk to aid in it's recovery (e.g., Western NATO re-supply via rail, road, air to Western Ukraine), so you are letting buffalo recover with momma's milk (e.g. NATO arms, weapons, money).
3. Also, your spear is insufficient or rusty (e.g., insufficient manpower, need mobilization).

The slow tempo in Donbass was due to lack of manpower, which is why partial mobilization is necessary. The myth of the attritional warfare/creeping artillery as chess strategic move has to stop.

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The Russians had more than enough manpower to keep the Ukrainians on the back foot in the Donbass for the first 6-7 months of this conflict. The partial mobilisation is a direct response to recent Ukrainian successes in Donbass. If the Ukrainians hadn't retaken the towns they had embarrassing the Russians, I can bet you they wouldn't have mobilised.

They had no desire to inflict a killer blow on the Ukraine throughout the war. In the East Ukrainians were happy hiding behind human shields, and could prevent long drawn out sieges by massacring civilians in the cities they occupied. That would force a Russian assault, as we saw in Mariupol. Russians didn't want a repeat of Mariupol happening in Odessa and Kharkov, so they were happy to limit advances to small towns and settlements where the Ukrainians couldn't hide.

In the west of Ukraine where this condition didn't exist Russians did absolutely nothing except sit on their hands outside Kiev for a month.

Watch some of the videos from the start of the war, Russian tanks were trying to take cities but were being repulsed by unarmed Ukrainian police forces who blockaded roads with civilian cars. Can you imagine American forces being repulsed by Iraqis in the same way? No, they would shot the blockades from a mile away and ran over any survivors.

Now we have politicians like Kadyrov and mercenaries from the Wagner group scapegoating Russian generals for defeats. I'm willing to bet this was a political decision most likely from Putin himself.

The more I think about it, the more I think this conflict is going to lead to an all out nuclear war between Russia and the west. There's still ways for Russia to win conventionally, but I see no evidence they are making moves in the right direction. Calling up reservists and recruiting criminals sounds like they are prepared to fight men into the meatgrinder style as the Ukrainians have been doing.

The west is completely oblivious to the nuclear threat, I see no signs of activating cold war nuclear shelters or any evidence they are mitigating the risk of an all out Russian nuclear strike. They seem to be treating a nuclear superpower with the same strategy they would Saddam or Gaddafi. Instead they are censoring or algorithming any talk about nuclear war on social media.

BoraTas said:

Russia is paying the price of waging a part-time war while Ukraine was mobilizing along with the help of 40+ countries. "Special military operation" is the worst strategic decision of last 20 years. I hope the Chinese leaders will purge all limited conflict proponents, if they exist.

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Russian ideological education has been weak since Gorbachev. Their ideology may have fallen even to the level of the Late Qing, where people believe that the affairs of the state are just the ruler's affairs and has nothing to do with them. Without ideology you'd better hope for a US vs Iraq level overmatch in capability, otherwise even Vietnam caused ideological collapse in the US, and a withdrawal.

I think the reason Putin was hesitant to declare war and mobilize is because he fears that there is insufficient ideological support for his position. Even Hirohito and Chiang Kai Shek did not declare war on each other until 1941 despite WW2 in China already raging for years at the time. Both Hirohito and Chiang were ideologically unsure.

For anyone wanting a peace deal or anything like that, Zelensky has got your back

Do we have any follow-ups with regards to the rumors of movement of Russian nuclear forces?

Pmichael said:

You, indeed, don't take those claims seriously. Not that those were actually made, but yeah.

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The 4 Il-76 shot down above Hostomel, the Ghost of Kiev, the sinking of the Admiral Essen, the depot in Crimea, passing of footage of DCS as legit, and so on.

Then we have the misleading ones like Oryx and other members of the Douma Squad.

Looks like Russia is on the ropes, taking punches both in the east and the south. But does Ukraine have enough power to deliver the knockout blow?

According to ISW, even Russia’s elite units have been mauled to incapacity:

“As ISW has previously reported, the Russian groupings in northern Kherson Oblast and on the Lyman front were largely comprised of units that had been regarded as among Russia’s premier conventional fighting forces before the war.[3] Elements of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army reportedly withdrew from Lyman to rear positions near Kreminna before October 2.[4] Russian sources previously reported that elements of the Russian Airborne Forces (VDV), especially the 76th Guards Air Assault Division, are active in Kherson Oblast.[5] Both the 144th Motorized Rifle Division and the 76th Guards Air Assault Division were previously lauded as some of Russia’s most elite forces, and their apparent failures to hold territory against major Ukrainian counter-offensive actions is consistent with ISW’s previous assessment that even the most elite Russian military forces are becoming increasingly degraded as the war continues.”

Russia is seriously struggling to stabilize the frontline by trading territory for land while waiting for the direly needed reinforcements. The momentum is still on the Ukrainian side. I don’t see signs of them culminating yet. Do you?

I did come across claims that the rain season and low cloud cover has had an impact on Ukrainian reconnaissance and reduced the effectiveness of their artillery support .

Russian dishwasher working over time, but i was illuminated that soviet stuff is just junk :

BMP surviving javelin strike even the turret is still functional, after rescuing LNR soldiers :

Zichan said:

Looks like Russia is on the ropes, taking punches both in the east and the south. But does Ukraine have enough power to deliver the knockout blow?

Russia is seriously struggling to stabilize the frontline by trading territory for land while waiting for the direly needed reinforcements. The momentum is still on the Ukrainian side. I don’t see signs of them culminating yet. Do you?

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If one side or the other are reducing the fronline length, forces will concentrate and battle will be way more decisive. Don't know if Russian reinforcements will wait for the line to go at them or if they will go reinforce it directly. Ukrainian have massed a forces while retreating from territories to do that push, don't know if they have enough to reach Russian reinforcement before it's ready to stop them. It's probably Ukrainian forces plan to achieve that.

ChongqingHotPot92 said:

Do we have any follow-ups with regards to the rumors of movement of Russian nuclear forces?

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well, there's this

Pmichael said:

I am (not) shocked that several pro Russian sources like ASB Military News just have massive meltdowns and straight up deleted everything. I wish people would be more critical about their sources in the future.

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This is not true! Fake!

The channel has changed its name, all content is intact, and so are the subscribers.

The new name of the channel on Telegram is: "Battlefield Insights".