The War in the Ukraine

kokole said:

According to the ASB Military News Telegram channel Russia is testing a Tu-214R reconnaissance aircraft over Ukraine:

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Botnet said:

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Good article demonstrating how Ukraine is suffering unthinkable casualties for little to no gains. Despite all these claims that Russia is going to get pushed out (hint: Not happening anytime soon)

"They are racing to recapture territory before the October rains turn the roads here into impassable sludge." So much so for getting to Kherson, huh?

"The Ukrainian government does not usually disclose casualty figures, but the soldiers and commanders interviewed in the past week portrayed the battlefield losses as “high” and “massive.” They described large offensives in which columns of Ukrainian tanks and armored vehicles tried to cross open fields only to be pounded mercilessly by Russian artillery and blown up by Russian mines."

"One Ukrainian soldier, speaking anonymously because he was not authorized to publicly discuss casualties, said that during a recent assault, “we lost 50 guys in two hours.” In another place, said the soldier, who works closely with different frontline units, “hundreds” of Ukrainian troops were killed or wounded while trying to take a single village, which is still in Russian hands."

'“The problem is that we are advancing with no artillery preparation, without suppressing their firing positions,”' said Ihor Kozub, the commander of a volunteer military unit near the southern city of Mykolaiv."

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FairAndUnbiased said:

This is expected. Kherson's geography is a massive hinderance to the side with air and artillery inferiority: flat fields with many river crossings. Russian forces are also locally stronger due to proximity with Crimea while the only city that can support a Kherson offensive is Mykolaiv.

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sheogorath said:

The images from Kherson are less flattering than those from Kharkov, including a T-90M towing a captured T-72M

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Zichan said:

Apparently recent footage of the damage inflicted upon the Antonovksy bridge near Kherson. Although I am not able to confirm that's indeed the case: a lot of the footage looks identical to reports from back in August.

Very good placement of HIMARS impacts, however no visible damage to the pillars. At some point the roadway will not be able to support heavy vehicle traffic, no matter the amount of patchwork. It takes an awful lot of HIMARS rounds to do what a couple 2,000lb bombs would achieve in one strike. But Ukraine doesn't have better options at the moment.

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Zichan said:

Apparently recent footage of the damage inflicted upon the Antonovksy bridge near Kherson. Although I am not able to confirm that's indeed the case: a lot of the footage looks identical to reports from back in August.

Very good placement of HIMARS impacts, however no visible damage to the pillars. At some point the roadway will not be able to support heavy vehicle traffic, no matter the amount of patchwork. It takes an awful lot of HIMARS rounds to do what a couple 2,000lb bombs would achieve in one strike. But Ukraine doesn't have better options at the moment.


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Zichan said:

Russia was firing 20,000 artillery shells per day in July, according to a report from Britain's Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). Their monthly production capacity would sustain only 5 days of operations.

The world 155mm shell market was worth $3.37 billion in 2021. At an average price of $2,000 per shell, that amounts to about 1.685 million shells annually. According to RUSI Ukraine was firing 6,000 artillery shells a day, which amounts to 2.2 million annually. Given existing stockpiles sizes, and a modest rampup in manufacturing, NATO should not have any difficulty sustaining at least that baseline consumption practically indefinitely.

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Abominable said:

I find it hilarious that the endless amount of propaganda from the "Ukraine is winning" crowd, they've been unable to take out a single bridge a few miles from the front line while trying to do so for the whole summer.

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Zichan said:

The world 155mm shell market was worth $3.37 billion in 2021. At an average price of $2,000 per shell, that amounts to about 1.685 million shells annually. According to RUSI Ukraine was firing 6,000 artillery shells a day, which amounts to 2.2 million annually. Given existing stockpiles sizes, and a modest rampup in manufacturing, NATO should not have any difficulty sustaining at least that baseline consumption practically indefinitely.

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