The War in the Ukraine

Phead128

Phead128

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"De-nazification" is a intentionally broad and vague term to allow for victory declaration at your convenience. This is a propaganda term rather than any real military objective. For all the Russian domestic audience knows, the entire neo-nazi battalions gathered at Mariupol and got obliterated, they wouldn't know any better.

The goal has never been to make Ukraine a non-threat via land-lock, it has been to prevent Ukrainian membership into NATO, now and in future. It was the possibility of NATO troops/infrastructure on Ukrainian soil that threatened Russia, not even Ukraine armed-forces itself. A land-locked Ukraine still hosts tons of NATO-donated arms/weapons/trainers which poses a proxy threat to Russia.

Russia should do regime change in Kiev to eliminate this NATO proxy once and for all or risk another war 10 years down the line. Any territorial annexed is icing-on-the-cake, not even the original main goal of this SMO.
 
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Yommie

Yommie

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Nikolaiv again pays the price for war. I wouldn't be surprised if Nikolaiv population falls by half 10 years from now due to destruction of infrastructure and no fuel for driving car.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1542827746707005441

Lisichansk refinery is pretty much intact. After minor repairs it should be able to supply fuel for Donbas. Donetsk oblast has a huge oil field.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1542863225108271104

Communists raise the victory flag in Luhansk oblast.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1542549460651331584
 
Temstar

Temstar

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Yommie said:
Nikolaiv again pays the price for war. I wouldn't be surprised if Nikolaiv population falls by half 10 years from now due to destruction of infrastructure and no fuel for driving car.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1542827746707005441

Lisichansk refinery is pretty much intact. After minor repairs it should be able to supply fuel for Donbas. Donetsk oblast has a huge oil field.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1542863225108271104

Communists raise the victory flag in Luhansk oblast.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1542549460651331584
Click to expand...
The speed and cleanliness that the refinery was taken over instead of being another Azov (or even Azot Chemical Plant) gives me pause. I saw someone else put it best:

Mariupol - months
Severodonetsk - weeks
Lysychansk - days

If this happen hold neither Bakhmut or Slovyansk would last long either.
 
SampanViking

SampanViking

The Capitalist
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Temstar said:
The speed and cleanliness that the refinery was taken over instead of being another Azov (or even Azot Chemical Plant) gives me pause. I saw someone else put it best:

Mariupol - months
Severodonetsk - weeks
Lysychansk - days

If this happen hold neither Bakhmut or Slovyansk would last long either.
Click to expand...
I think this gets to the nub of it doesn't it.
This relatively small Russian Army has taken on the full might of the NATO trained and supplied and fully mobilised Ukrainian Army and met them with the Ukrainians defending well established fortified positions which have been built over a period of eight years.

There is only so much meat to put into the grinder and the insane policy of the Kiev regime seems to have ensured its reached that point sooner rather than later.
We have been told that the next line of defence is the Siversk to Bakhmut line and that some twenty thousand Ukrainian troops have been sent to defend it. We are now hearing though that rather than being an entirely fresh force sent out from Slavansk, that instead much of this twenty thousand is based on the existing Lysychansk Garrison. If we take into account 80% losses, large numbers fixed in the city cauldron and general Ukrainian morale fallen through the floor, then it seems likely that the Siversk Bakhmut line will prove to be no line whatsoever and the Russians will role through it.

We then have to ask about the defenses on the Slavansk line itself.
In short, after several months of painstaking inch by inch fighting, then the point of the rapid terminal collapse of the Ukrainian army could easily be approaching.
 
R

reservior dogs

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FADH1791 said:
People saying Russia should not take Odessa couldn’t be more wrong. Taking Odessa makes so much sense in all areas

1. If your goal is de-nazification why would leave a large neo nazi battalion standing in a major city where the populace see themselves more Russian than Ukrainian? Kiev sent neo nazi battalions to the areas of east and south Ukraine to snuff any attempt of a “Russian spring.”

2. If the goal is to make sure Ukraine never becomes a threat to Russia what better way to take Odessa and turn the already impoverished Ukraine into a landlocked failed state which will be a major headache for the EU. Ukraine will never economically recover from that lost and will be a basket case. It’s funny that the EU is pushing to give them membership. Because once everything is said and done they’ll have a memeber whose economy collapsed and awashed with with some many modern western arms. Will the EU bailout this Ukraine when the EU debt crisis with Spain and Italy still hasn’t been resolved?

3. Taking Odessa kicks NATO out of the Black Sea. And Russia gains the Black Sea and a major port to build ships. And it increase the Russia’s share of the global grain market.

4. Odessa has historical, cultural and lingual ties with Russia. It just makes sense. And also this unified Transnitria with Russia.

It just make sense for Odessa to be taken. Also the Western powers are pushing Kiev to not negotiate and fight. If that’s the case the more Kiev fights the more land they lost. Odessa will likely be taken last.
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I believe Odessa will be taken, but all in due time. With the current territories that the Russians control, they would have to cross many rivers to take Odessa. If they first take some of the big cities along the Dnipro, like Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro, it would enable them to sweep across North of Odessa and come down from there. The defense is much weaker in the North and once taken, there would be no need to cross big rivers. I do believe it make sense to consider Mykolaiv as their next target since it is on their side of the river.
 
Yommie

Yommie

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mossen

mossen

Junior Member
Registered Member
Temstar said:
The speed and cleanliness that the refinery was taken over instead of being another Azov (or even Azot Chemical Plant) gives me pause. I saw someone else put it best:

Mariupol - months
Severodonetsk - weeks
Lysychansk - days

If this happen hold neither Bakhmut or Slovyansk would last long either.
Click to expand...
Most of Ukraine's best troops were in Donbass prior to the invasion. They have largely been killed, wounded or captured by now. Also, the Azov industrial plant was unique in the sense that it was built to withstand a nuclear blast.
 
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