The War in the Ukraine

JJD1803 said:

It’s pretty obvious a trap which shows the US isn’t negotiating in good faith. If Russia truly falls for this after Minsk 1 and 2 then it shows how naive Putin. Say what you will of the Iranian but they shut the door on negotiations on another nuclear deal. The US can’t be trusted and if one administration agrees to one agreement who is to say the next one will?

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Russia already stated before multiple times that they will not accept a ceasefire until their terms are accepted first. You know, demilitarization, neutralization, and de-nazification of Ukraine, plus later the annexation of all four oblasts (Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk, Donetsk) in full plus Crimea which they already held. We will see if the Russians remain consistent in this position.

Knowing the Russians the more you delay the deal, the worse the deal you will get. Just ask Finland which lost most of Karelia.

Trump and his men seems to think they can just freeze the conflict in the current lines. But the thing is Putin changed the Russian constitution via a referendum before 2022. Russia is not allowed constitutionally to cede territory in any way. According to Russian law, after the referendums in the regions, those four oblasts in their entirety are now part of the Russian Federation and that is final.

The Russians already pulled out their troops from around Kiev partly as a goodwill gesture after the Istanbul talks. Fat load it did for the Russians, with Ukraine claiming they kicked out the Russian forces all by their own power, and episodes like Bucha happened. The Russians were dumb enough to let the clock run out and their soldier contracts expire thinking they had a deal, which led to later actual territory losses against the AFU in the Kherson and Kharkiv oblasts.

Concentrations of Ukrainian forces were spotted in the Sumy region. Iskander strikes were carried out.


Guyevo


Gornal

M777 spotted and struck by a Lancet in Konstantinovka.


A Ukrainian APC with passengers on the Sudzha border region gets targeted and hit by a Vikhr ATGM from a Ka-52 attack helicopter.


SMO veterans are assisted in finding new jobs in the civilian world. Here an ex-drone operator is now working in a factory that's producing new drones and UAVs. In this case, it's a winged FPV called the Chernika-2.


A Ukrainian UAV launch points is spotted using a dugout, first a drone then a Starlink antenna. Artillery crew using a D-20 howitzer sent a 152mm shell right into the dugout, an accuracy level that's achieved using a Krasnopol.


Molniya-2 hits a Ukrainian stronghold. The advantage of using FPV drones is their greater range and the ability to hold a heavier warhead over quadcopters.


Russian BM-21 Grad at work. A favorite for both forces, one that never gets old, tried, proven, reliable and destructive. A saturation fire mission was performed to kill all targets within a grid.


AFU "Aidar" Battalion anid the 93rd Mechanized Brigade attempted counterattacks in the Kursk-Sumy border region, but vehicles were intercepted by fiberoptic drones of the 40th Marine Brigade and the 177th Regiment.


Something arrived in Konstantinovka.


Modular drone Alyosha can be configured with different warheads, guidance systems, optional fiber optic spool or frequency hopping radio.


Drone operators of the 6th MR Division strikes a dugout and a Starlink antenna used by Ukrainian UAV operators.


Positions of the AFU 155th Brigade gets Krasnopoled. The systemic and surgical dismantling of enemy strongholds usually a good sign of an impending offensive in the area. Pokrovsk direction,


You don't have to tell me this is in Toretsk. This is the front where the Russian troops here love to toss TM-62 anti tank mines into where Ukrainians are holed in. Three Bradleyd and two M113s are destroyed here as the 102nd Regiment lay mines, traps and ambushes and clearing dugouts.


Artillery and drones support the assault as the 37th and the 40th Brigaded take Dniepr Energy.


Deep State UA now acknowledges the loss of Sudja.


Russian troops now walk the streets of Sudja.

Tam said:

New UMPK-PD extended range glide bombs using FAB-500M62 spotted underneath an Su-34.

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80 - 90 km (range) at the standard altitude and speed of release, 10000 m and 900 km/h respectively

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Nasty stuff. A range increase of like 20-30 km. This means Kharkiv city is under its range.

JJD1803 said:

I thought the Ukrainian summer offensive of 2023 was a bone headed affair but Kursk takes the cake. Total waste of manpower and equipment. It will go down as one of the greatest military blunders in history. I’m convinced Syrsky is a secret Russian agent with all of his boneheaded military operations.

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They had(and have) to try doing something to reverse unfavourable meat grinder.
For all we know, it wasn't a half-assed attempt, quite the opposite. Not their fault they didn't have enough forces.

Gloire_bb said:

They had(and have) to try doing something to reverse unfavourable meat grinder.
For all we know, it wasn't a half-assed attempt, quite the opposite. Not their fault they didn't have enough forces.

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The only reason it is a meat grinder is because the Ukrainians/Americans are fighting a political war, not a self defense war, and they refuse to fall back to better more fortified positions. This conflict is like a stock market to the West. They can't afford for the map to start moving in favour of the Russians, because it would look like they are losing and investors (and mercenaries) would be deterred from joining the scam, so what they do instead is recruit people at gun point and push into Russian territories/hold on to their territories until the last building and man to make it look like the Russians are incompetent. The cost of doing this is much higher casualties for Ukraine, not less as you are suggesting. The Russians are just hanging back and chipping away at the foundation of this house of cards, to the point where the main investor went from "Fighting to the last Ukrainian" and "The Russian economy will crumble this next sanction package" to "I will end this war in 24 hours".

An episode of combat work of the Ukrainian IRIS-T SLM air defense system. The IRIS-T SLM medium-range air defense system has been produced in Germany since 2014. The video shows the interception of a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile using the IRIS-T SLM air defense system. The video was filmed in Ukraine, the specific location of the shooting is not reported.

Rare footage of Russian drones "Forpost-RU" and "Orion" working together in Ukraine. Technical information about them is in the links to the video in the comments to the video. The video was filmed near the village of Grunovka, Sumy region of Ukraine, on the border with the Kursk region of Russia. In the first part of the video, the drone "Forpost-RU" with the help of a guided bomb KAB-20S destroys a pontoon crossing over the Psel River. Later, a Ukrainian truck "MAN" appears in this area, carrying a tank on a lowboy. The Russian drone "Orion" attacks it with the help of an "X-UAV" missile. Judging by the video, both drones worked accurately on the targets.

Drones and Lancet takes out Ukrainian SPGs, namely two Gvozdikas and one Akasya. Despite all the Western SPGs and 155mm, the AFU still highly depends on two Soviet hard working warhorses.


Night strikes on Ukrainian logistics.


Arrival of a winged bomb near Ukrainian positions. Older footage in Kursk.


Russian soldiers inspecting a destroyed T-64BV.


Destroyed M1126 Stryker in the Kursk region.


Ukrainian citizens struck back at the TCC in Kiev, burning a vehicle.


Drones and Lancets from the Rubicon and other units strike at the many Ukrainian vehicles fleeing the Sudja salient along the Road of Death.


Russians take Goncharovka.


Russian MoD: Russian army liberated Sudja, Melova, and Podol in the Kursk region.


Gerans strikes Ukrainian facilities in Dnipropetrovsk.


Ukraine has ran out of ATACMS.


Russian artillery of Group Center takes out a Ukrainian tank. Akasya seen shooting.


Winged drone hits a shelter where Ukrainian troops are hiding.


Captured Ukrainian R18 drone.


M113 from the AFU 155th hit by an FPV drone.


Temporary deployment point in Bahatyr gets hit by a FAB strike.


2S19 MSTA-S of the 400th Self Propelled Artillery Regiment of Group Center firing Krasnopol-M2 (if you prefer, Krasnopol-D or ZOF95) rocket
assisted rounds on Ukrainian targets in the Pokrovsk direction.


M777 and M119 howitzers captured in Sudja. Capture of artillery pieces are rare.


Wrecks, trophies, drones, and captured stuff in Sudja. Wrecked turret of a BMP-1.


Ukrainian Gvozdika hit by an FPV in the Zaporozhye region.


Ukrainian Gvozdika hit by a Lancet in the Vremevsky sector.


Mi-28MN striking retreating Ukrainian units in the Sudja district.


Ukrainian tank struck by a Lancet in the Kharkhiv border region.


Humanitarian aid dropped by Group North drones on Russian citizens still in occupied territory.


Baba Yaga shot down by rifle fire with thermals.


Not an SPG, this looks like a turret of a BMP-1 or an IFV. Being struck by a fiberoptic drone from Group North.


If true, the Kursk campaign inflicted more casualties than the Summer 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive and the Bakhmut campaign.


Depressing. The first 18 to 24 year olds being mobilized in Ukraine.

gelgoog said:

But the thing is Putin changed the Russian constitution via a referendum before 2022. Russia is not allowed constitutionally to cede territory in any way. According to Russian law, after the referendums in the regions, those four oblasts in their entirety are now part of the Russian Federation and that is final.

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Technically the same thing Zelensky claims for Ukraine. So technically one country would need to cease to exist in order to align these visions. Not a nice prospect.

In contrast to many observers, though, I think Russia will loose this war, a country with the BIP of Italy BEFORE sanctions cannot beat the whole western hemisphere on the long run, so time is rather working for Ukraine in my opinion.

The ceasefire is a poisoned offer, though, since Zelensky primarily will use it to arm and recruit and have another go. People claiming he wants peace are ill advised.

Nightsky said:

In contrast to many observers, though, I think Russia will loose this war, a country with the BIP of Italy BEFORE sanctions cannot beat the whole western hemisphere on the long run, so time is rather working for Ukraine in my opinion.

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The ruble is undervalued. If you look at hard stats, Russia produces the same amount of steel than the entire US for example. It is also a major producer of aluminium and titanium, it produces more of those than the US does.
In artillery munitions, Russia produce more of those than the entire West combined.

It is a mistake to compare GDPs in USD to determine military power. Can Italy make SSNs and SSBNs with nukes?
In GDP PPP Russia is like #4 about tied with Japan. Then you add to that their MIC and industry which they inherited from the Soviet Union.

You can also bet that if Russia started losing, China would act, either they would reinforce Russia, or they would invade the Russian Far East to prevent Western control over it. By getting access to those resources, China would become self-sufficient in terms of oil, gas, and coal.

Nightsky said:

The ceasefire is a poisoned offer, though, since Zelensky primarily will use it to arm and recruit and have another go. People claiming he wants peace are ill advised.

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Zelensky is a puppet. He won elections supposedly on a peace platform, then the AFU refused to leave Donbass, Russia invaded Ukraine, the UK torpedoed the Istanbul talks, and now we get this. He is in way over his head.