The War in the Ukraine

reservior dogs said:

You take your reserve units that are fairly well intact, well equipped with tanks and armored vehicles, take them out of the cover of well dug fortifications to a place far from your supply lines and no cover from cities and no fortifications, to fight an enemy that has overwhelming firepower asymmetry and glide bombs. In the meantime, your defense in the cities with fortifications dug over eight years are crumbling quickly right before your eyes.

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Maybe they did not have much choices, because they knew Russia would push through there soon anyways. By doing this, Ukraine accelerated their rate of losses, but that's not necessarily the incorrect decision. Ardennes offensive was launched for the same reason. Wait around longer and die slowly or attack with wildly unrealistic plans now, 1% chance of success and negotiated peace, if not we die faster.

By staying in forts and attriting, perhaps even more Ukrainians will end up dying, as recruiters grab more elderly, teens and invalids off the streets, than if a corps is decisively defeated and the war ends faster. A smart general would go for the option that has at least some chance of improved result, while sparing the population from prolonged torture, if the end result is going to be the same anyways.

reservior dogs said:

This short lived PR victory will be very costly.

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It's not even a PR victory yet, just another engagement that is already going poorly for Ukraine.

Index said:

Maybe they did not have much choices, because they knew Russia would push through there soon anyways. By doing this, Ukraine accelerated their rate of losses, but that's not necessarily the incorrect decision. Ardennes offensive was launched for the same reason. Wait around longer and die slowly or attack with wildly unrealistic plans now, 1% chance of success and negotiated peace, if not we die faster.

By staying in forts and attriting, perhaps even more Ukrainians will end up dying, as recruiters grab more elderly, teens and invalids off the streets, than if a corps is decisively defeated and the war ends faster. A smart general would go for the option that has at least some chance of improved result, while sparing the population from prolonged torture, if the end result is going to be the same anyways.

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The reason they had only two choices - sit and die, or go on a mad man offensive, is because not just Ukraine, but the entire "West" cut off proper diplomacy with Russia. The ones who didn't, like Hungary or Turkey are more or less shunned and sidelined.

If you are on a weaker, losing side of a conflict, your diplomacy should be extra active (and conducted in the open), getting to the peace table should be at the top on the list of your priorities. But the Ukrainians drank too much western Kool-Aid and went "not an inch of land". There's no place for negotiation with someone who makes "You admit you've lost" a sine qua non condition of even talking to you. I remember posting 2 years ago, when "the West" went all-in with sanctions, that they won't have anything to bargain with way down the line, and guess what. Two years have passed, and the Ukrainians have no options, and their allies are waving a revolver with no bullets...

FriedButter said:

Not entirely true in regard to posting low quality propaganda in general. They have to meet the bottom guideline. As per the first page in bolded red letters. This isn’t a reply to the above replies/disagreements just to be clear.

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Seriously?

Where in my post did I advertise propaganda?

Dolcevita said:

You basically admitted that you post have low-quality including false propaganda. You have as much credibility as SolarWarden.

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Where did I say that? Do you have any difficulty with text interpretation? Besides, I'm not too worried about my credibility on the forum, my ego is not weak and fragile to worry about what others will think about me, unlike many here.

RobertC said:

WRT ZNPP cooling tower fire:

(1) Wasn't the plant operating at reduced power levels, actually close to warm shutdown mode?
(2) Didn't the IAEA leave personnel onsite, perhaps not IAEA employees, monitoring Russian operations?

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It seems the power plant was completely offline.

OFF:

Ukraine’s shock raid deep inside Russia rages on
The surprise attack comes as Ukraine is under pressure in the Donbas

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Russia is transferring fewer forces to the Kursk region than Ukraine would like, writes The Economist.

Sinnavuuty said:

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Russia is transferring fewer forces to the Kursk region than Ukraine would like, writes The Economist.

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grim for Ukraine actually. dunno why Economist published this

“We sent our most combat-ready units to the weakest point on their border,” says a general-staff source deployed to the region. “Conscript soldiers faced paratroopers and simply surrendered.”

Ukraine does not appear to be reinforcing its positions in any serious sense.

"A minimum objective appears to be pulling troops away from Russia’s stranglehold in Kharkiv and Donbas, the main focuses of the war. On early evidence, the results are inconclusive. Russia has shifted troops from the Kharkiv front, but so far it has moved far fewer from the vital Donbas front. “Their commanders aren’t idiots,” says the Ukrainian general-staff source. “They are moving forces, but not as quickly as we would like. They know we can’t extend logistics 80 or 100 km.”

Communications cut, Ukrainian tank fires on Ukrainian position.


Ukrainian pickup carrying ammunition supplies gets hit by a Lancet.


Chinese volunteer in the Russian Army.


BTR-4E used by Ukrainian DRG photographed by residents 10km from the border at the Belkovsky district in the Kursk region. Note this is a deep recon force, not a breakthrough. (However at the time of this photo, it is possible that the BTR-4E was already captured and being driven by Russians.)


Ukrainian BTR-4E ambushed and under heavy fire from Russian troops including Akhmat fighters.


Russian troops joyriding BTR-4E after being captured in the Belkovsky district.


Bila Hora. Ukrainian BMP enters into secret hanger and the hanger was put out by a Krasnopol with the BMP in it.


Abrams taken out in the Pokrovsk sector. Crew managed to escape.


T-64 and Kozak taken out by Lancets in Kursk oblast.


Ukrainian ammo depot taken out by FPV drones in Volchansk.


Four Ukrainian vehicles taken out by FPV drones from the 40th Marine Brigade.


Bukhanka with Grad 122mm MLRS tubes used by the 61st Marines Brigade.


Russian soldier shooting down an FPV drone with his rifle.


Ukrainian mortar position taken out by a Hyacinth-B of the VDV in Kherson.


Site of Baba Yaga operators hit by Tornado-S and Lancet in Liman. (Not Iskander.)

The more details emerge the more ridiculous the Ukrainian decision to invade Kursk looks.

So, the facts that we know of are:

- The Russians cleared their own minefields around Kursk. Which is one of the key factors to allow this Ukrainian invasion to happen.

- Ukraine pulled some of their best troops from the most direly pressed parts of the front to get enough men for this invasion.

- The Ukrainian stated objective of the invasion is to pull Russian troops from those said same parts of the front to relieve some pressure.

If the Russians cleared their own mines to prepare for an offensive, surely they would have, you know, troops there as well for this offensive? So at best Ukraine is pulling its best troops from the most pressed parts of the front to engage fresh Russian reserves in Kursk. In which case this is a pre-emptive attack meant to blunt that expected Russian offensive from Kursk. In which case there should have been zero expectation that they would be able to draw off Russian forces already engaged in Ukraine. The goal for such an offensive would have been to get HIMARS and other long range offensive fires within range of the barracks and parking lots of the Russian invasion force muster and hit that as hard as they can to inflict as much damage as possible before pulling back. That would have been a smart play and a costly lesson for the Russians.

If there is no massive Russian force mustering at Kursk, then alarm bells should be blasting about the reason for Russia to clear its own mines and create this opening.

As things stand, it looks like the Russians laid a trap and the Ukrainians jumped head over heels into it and surprised the Russians with how big of a success the trap was. While the scale of the attack might have caught the Russians off guard and given them some indigestion, the overall tactical and strategic results will be overwhelmingly favourable to Russia.

At the tactical level, they have managed to draw significant amounts of Ukraine’s best remaining forces out into the open. Russian aviation and artillery must be having a field day and the Ukrainian losses are likely to range from heavy to devastating once the dust settles. By weakening its already failing defences, Ukraine is also likely to hasten Russian progress on the front.

At the strategic level, Russia would have demonstrated beyond all doubt to its own population of the need to continue the war and broaden its scope beyond the original 4 oblasts. The reason is the same for both why Russia cannot allow a pro-NATO Ukraine as well as why NATO covets Ukraine so much - the long and porous land board is basically impossible to comprehensively patrol and defend, creating all sorts of openings for western agents and special forces to do the nasty in Russia anytime they want. Anyone who thinks otherwise only need to see how much the US is spending trying and failing to secure its own boarder against Mexican civilians.

Putin had a strategic problem in that the Russian army’s battlefield successes meant that they are almost certainly going to achieve all of the original goals set out for the SMO, and sooner rather than later. After which he was going to have a real hard time justifying the continued fighting. Especially if Ukraine holds a referendum to basically give up its claims on those 4 oblasts and just unilaterally announces a ceasefire. Zelensky just solved that problem for Putin. Expect the Russian people to demand an escalation after the invasion has been defeated and the inevitable flood of reports of civilian casualties and Ukraine war crimes allegations start.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1822606803777278231

Stills from a HUD video featured in today's "Voeynnaya Priemka" episode on the Su-35S that appears to show the launch of an R-37M air-to-air missile against a target over 160km away (note the "37М" on the bottom right and the arrow pointing at the range scale on the top left).

The video cuts off shortly after missile launch & the outcome of this engagement is not known. While VKS fighters have been achieving long-range kills with the R-37M, the missile's probability of kill at such ranges is presumably (very) low.

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It appears that this episode is the same as the Russian claim of interception at a range of 213 km.

As has been pointed out by others and multiple times, this stunt meant pulling troops from the East. Troops and equipment they won't be able to replace.

This claimed capture is not supported by visual evidence which is coming mainly from the Russian side.