The War in the Ukraine

MarKoz81

Junior Member
Registered Member
It looks like an ambush. The Russians must have not spotted the Bradley and thought the infantry now has a path to the dismount point.

The propaganda clips are useless because they regularly mess up the chronology of events for psychological effect.

At the speeds and in the terrain that you can see in the clip it is impossible to hold onto the vehicle. If troops ride on top - which due to poor ergonomics is an accepted necessity and not doctrine - and an ambush happens they either immediately dismount or go inside through the top hatches. If you stay on top and BTR accelerates and goes off road you're likely to seriously injure yourself whether you fall of or not. If you're being shot at you're dead. So if there was anyone on top of the vehicle we should clearly see them fall off like in other clips. A dead body can't hold on to a BTR driving like this one.

You can exit the BTR through two side hatches, which open in a way that allows the troops to ingress and egress while the vehicle is in motion. You can also exit it through top hatches which is why it may seem like the someone is falling from the top. But to me it looks like the soldier is falling from the side hatch. When you pause the clip at the moment when the figure is seen falling to the ground there's a dark spot between the 2nd and 3rd wheels. This is likely an open side hatch.

Likely the vehicle was hit by the Bradley and the troops inside decided to escape even before the vehicle was in safe location because a Soviet APC/IFV is not a safe place. Particularly the BTRs which have engines in all the wrong places to retain buoyancy. If a BTR gets hit with 25mm it's not like a BMP where the engine is in a compartment at the front. Everything fills up with hot irritating smoke, fluids etc. There are fire hazards everywhere because BTRs have little in the way of fire suppression. You want to leave asap.

An important factor to consider is gun stabilisation and vehicle stability.

BTRs have neither. The gun is not stabilised. The vehicle has very poor suspension and relatively low mass. The target must be at point blank for the gun to hit if the BTR is in motion. The gun of BTR-82A was intended to provide fire support from a distance for dismounted infantry performing assault with infantry tactics. It was a cheap interim solution to improve a major weakness in infantry company firepower. They are not meant for vehicle vs vehicle combat let alone in such scenarios like shown in the clip. I'm genuinely confused as to what the gunner is trying to shoot at.

Bradley on the other hand has gun stabilisation and is a tracked vehicle of approximately twice the mass so it can hit the BTR with high accuracy while moving. It also has better armour so it can risk taking some hits. BTRs can't because they're essentially the same as BTR-60 which is a cheap mass-produced amphibious troop carrier. Because of that protection inside the BTR is symbolic, even less so than in a BMP-1/2. As soon as an BTR is in combat and it can't withdraw it's "everybody out" for the troops because they're literally in the middle of the vehicle i.e. at the highest hit probability area. So all the hatches are opened and BTR can be evacuated through four hatches on three sides: right (1) left (1) and top (2).

I'm surprised that the Bradley kept going. Was there an artillery barrage happening at the same time? Otherwise the correct behaviour is to stop, take aim and just rip the BTR to pieces. Actually the Bradley should attempt to charge at the BTR because it has 2x mass and 2,5x the engine power plus tracks and a reinforced frontal plate. If it forced the BTR to take a sharp turn it could even cause it topple over.

Green crews in both?

Surreal images... Yak-52 type training aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force is trying to hunt the Russian drone. Images from the Russian drone

Economy of means: piston-engine propeller aircraft vs piston-engine propeller drones. The training for pilots is also much shorter.

The use of cheap trainer aircraft against drones and cruise missiles is a natural solution. Kalibrs and X-101 travel at 0,6Ma. That's something an L-39 can handle if it's armed with Stingers. Drones are best disposed of by turboprops. Turboprops also have the advantage of being able to travel at near-stall speeds at extremely low altitudes which makes them impossible to hit by most air-to-air missiles.

They can also be based and launched at improvised airstrips with much greater ease than even the most robust fighter jet. Ideally we should see mass use of these aircraft.

According to the rumour mill, Ukrainian pilots and engineers have been training on the Mirage 2000 for nearly 2 years.

Of note however is that the Mirage 2000-5 is pretty much a pure air-to-air fighter, unlike the F-16. There is little risk they will start using them against Russia. It can lob a single Storm Shadow/SCALP, but Ukraine already has that capability on the Su-24.

In terms of air-to-air armament, the Mirage 2000-5 can't match the Russian R-37M armed fighters. It does have a slight advantage over the F-16 because the MICA missile comes with an infrared seeker, allowing it to sneak up to the frontline without emitting from the radar. The electronic warfare package should also be way superior to the F-16.

My take: If actually delivered, these are intended by NATO for cruise missile defence, far from the frontline. This goes hand-in-hand with the pair of SAAB Erieyes.

Ever since late 2022 Ukraine only needs to defend its airspace against cruise missile and drone attacks. Over the course of the first 2-3 months Russia has shocked itself into a state of utter impotence as far as massed offensive use of air assets is concerned and restricted itself to defensive operations within its own airspace and offensive operations over the frontline only. They ran out of gas like a bodybuilder in a freak MMA fight after 1 minute.

If you compare Russian ground forces and how they adapted to the conflict, despite horrendous losses, and Russian air force, which really hasn't lost that much, the contrast is very stark. Russian air force has failed to improve their performance over two years of the conflict for a very simple reason: they weren't a significant factor to begin with - which is why they were never given a strong political position in the system. If VKS played a major role early on, they'd be pushed to the forefront like the VDV, or the mercenaries were. They'd be given a chance. But for all the legitimate complaints that they could provide they failed as an institution. Psychological impact of air power is exaggerated because unlike artillery it can be seen and therefore mental images can be associated with it. Which is why the propaganda shows air power as a factor on both sides. But in practical terms Russian aviation only recently began to play a greater role with the increased use of glide bombs (innovation for Russia) but only after all other measures were exhausted. It was not an invention borne out of necessity. It was an invention borne out of "that's the only thing left".

VKS has had all the means necessary to successfully project force but they didn't know how and they were afraid to learn the hard way. VKS is the Ronda Rousey of air warfare.

But the missile barrages and constant stream of drones is a major problem and can have an effect greater than that of the allied strategic bombing offensive in WW2. Anything that can help with those is an asset. Yak-52, Mirage 2000-5 as long as it flies and has weapons. The main problem is time, and here comes the real question: donations to Ukraine have been used as political theater since the beginning. Remember Leopards vs Abrams? This likely is the same thing. This is why everyone talks very loudly, rumour mills turn like crazy but hardy anything is done.

The Erieye was developed to detect American cruise missiles taking shortcuts through Sweden on the way to Russia, which is pretty close to what Ukraine is struggling with.

How does one come up with something so dumb and then makes it even dumber with poor phrasing? I envision a bright future for you on TikTok.
 
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Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
A couple of pages back we discussed Western and Russian military production. I found some figures for the US and figured I would post them here so people can refer to them in the future.


About that:
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It's an interesting study, considering that they accepted Russian official statements and Western intelligence analysis claims.
 

Santamaria

Junior Member
Registered Member
About that:
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It's an interesting study, considering that they accepted Russian official statements and Western intelligence analysis claims.
It is a rewrite of common topics, written by a bunch of political scientist and accepting absurd data like Russian caualties being magically above Ukrainian casualties while Ukraine is outgunned during all the conflict.

Just reading the conclusions you can see they learnt nothing during last 2 years
 

B777LR

Junior Member
Registered Member
How does one come up with something so dumb and then makes it even dumber with poor phrasing? I envision a bright future for you on TikTok.

Your inability to remember history (or that you didn't experience it) doesn't change what happened. The American deployment of BGM-109Gs caused a significant amount of controversy, not just in neutral nations, but also among NATO allies. The US has a history of not respecting neutral nations. Several BGM-109G units were based in the UK, those missiles would have taken direct routes over neutral Sweden.

Sweden was a neutral nation, and an attack on the Soviet Union with nuclear tipped cruise missiles arriving from Sweden would be seen as a breach of neutrality and an attack by Sweden. On top of that, the Soviet Union had worse air defences facing Sweden, so the US was more likely to exploit the gap. Sweden had no choice but to react with cruise missile defences, including the SAAB Erieye. FWIW, this was before the Soviets deployed cruise missiles of their own, and while the Swedish-US relations were still poor over the Vietnam war.

So yes, the SAAB Erieye is ideally suited to detect cruise missiles.
 

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
Due to the cut it is not obvious that it was the same Bradley.

Screen dump from the video. The geo coordinate is taken from the Telegram post.
The BTR 48°13'54.5"N 37°33'15.9"E, see the house with four sided sloped roof.
1717884968181.png

The bradley at 48°13'58.7"N 37°33'36.5"E, note the water body in the front and the small road in blue. The yellow line is the main road.
1717885644036.png

Now put the same coordinates in Google map
The house with four sided sloped roof beside BTR
1717885199197.png
The location of the Bradley on larger map, the drone footage is taken from the north to the south indicated by the red arrow. Note the water body and the small dirt road in blue.
map.jpg

The distance between the two points are about 530 meters. It is not a 100% proof that the bradley being hit is the one shooting at the BTR, but the probabily of another Bradley got hit at almost the same spot on another day (either earlier or later) is slim to zero IMO.

Also very important to remember is that there are two cuts between three scenes. First has both in the frame, second has only BTR, third has only Bradley. If the Bradley scene is questionable, so should the other two.
 
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MarKoz81

Junior Member
Registered Member
How does one come up with something so dumb and then makes it even dumber with poor phrasing? I envision a bright future for you on TikTok.

Your inability to remember history (or that you didn't experience it) doesn't change what happened.

So the answer was "narcissism" and "delusions" all along? How predictable. Eyeroll. Yawn.

The American deployment of BGM-109Gs caused a significant amount of controversy, not just in neutral nations, but also among NATO allies. The US has a history of not respecting neutral nations. Several BGM-109G units were based in the UK, those missiles would have taken direct routes over neutral Sweden. Sweden was a neutral nation, and an attack on the Soviet Union with nuclear tipped cruise missiles arriving from Sweden would be seen as a breach of neutrality and an attack by Sweden. On top of that, the Soviet Union had worse air defences facing Sweden, so the US was more likely to exploit the gap.

GLCM was based in UK, Belgium, Netherlands, West Germany and Italy (Sicily). Missiles from Sicily were to fly over the Hellespont and Black Sea. Missiles from Britain were to fly along Norway and strike naval and strategic bases in Russia's north. Missiles from Germany and Benelux were to fly over Denmark, Baltic sea and over the (then Soviet) Baltic countries.

Nobody in NATO would send the missiles over Sweden because neutral Sweden was more advantageous to NATO than Sweden in NATO. Swedish neutrality guaranteed Finnish neutrality and with these two in the way Norway was open to Soviet attack only from the sea which was crucial to NATO's defensive posture. If Norway was attacked over land Soviet aircraft could fly over Sweden, pop up lob missiles at targets in Norway and hide behind the mountains. And with that control of North Atlantic would be threatened. GIUK doesn't work without Norway securing its left flank. It's obvious if you look at the right map.

480px-NATO_vs._Warsaw_Pact_%281949-1990%29.svg.png


If Sweden in NATO was more advantageous it would simply join NATO. Sweden was already working with the US and UK so closely that it was NATO in all but name. Swedish intelligence was doing non stop surveillance of Soviet activity. And how do you think a country of 8 million made cutting-edge submarines, fighter jets and anti-ship missiles in early 1980s??? Swedish ingenuity is good for putting meatballs in IKEA stores. Everything else was given so that they could remain neutral.

Sweden had no choice but to react with cruise missile defences, including the SAAB Erieye.

The development of Erieye began in 1985. GLCM was retired following INF in 1988. Erieye entered service in 1993.

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Erieye was developed as consequence of the aerial battle over Beqaa Valley in 1982 where IDF using E-2s to direct their fighters wiped out Syrian Air Force with no losses.

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Sweden at the time was developing its BAS90 doctrine which relied on dispersed basing for fighters.

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Erieye would maintain distance as AEW to detect targets at ranges sufficient for fighters to react according to new tactics. Six were built in the end but more were planned initially. This was also why Gripen had smaller radar compared to Viggen. It was designed to work with Erieye.

FWIW, this was before the Soviets deployed cruise missiles of their own, and while the Swedish-US relations were still poor over the Vietnam war.

This is Novator NPO RK-55 deployed in late 1970s:

640px-SS-C-4_Slingshot.JPEG


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You could argue that BGM-109G took direct inspiration from RK-55.

These missiles were largely withdrawn from service by late 1980s because they weren't as effective against NATO due to geography. The opposite was true for NATO using cruise missiles against USSR. Soviet Union was a huge landmass with very limited radar coverage and even more limited fighter coverage. For USSR cruise missiles flying low over the land were harder to detect than ballistic missiles. For NATO the only land border was in Germany with all the air defenses in place, everywhere else was the sea which doesn't hide cruise missiles as well.

So instead of cruise missiles Soviets deployed an excellent heavy intermediate-range missile RSD-10 which had up to three nuclear warheads, range of 5,5 thousand km, was solid-fueled and carried by a 12x12 mobile TEL. It could be deployed from improvised launching stations at a moment's notice.

640px-RSD-10_2009_G1.jpg


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In fact the development and deployment of this missile was the very reason for the missile crisis, which resulted in US deploying Pershing II and Gryphon missiles as incentive to force negotiations which led to INF treaty. The crisis began in late 70s, during Carter's presidency, when as consequence of Vietnam war and the financial crisis US forces in Europe were at its lowest point with low readiness. Soviets held a decisive numerical superiority in conventional forces and just closed the gap in nuclear forces riding a wave of their own "insane" strategists pushing for immediate nuclear use like Grechko and Ustinov.

Large exercises like REFORGER83 were the answer to that. People often confuse both the missiles and REFORGER as part of Reagan's presidency, because Retarded Ronnie was very good at stealing credit for things he didn't do and blaming his own failures on others. He was what Trump ineptly imitates. Pershing, Gryphon, REFORGER, even F-117 and B-2 - all of that was set in motion under Carter and Brzezinski, and couldn't be done in shorter amount of time because strategic shifts take years to implement, usually around a decade which is why this one plays out by 1988 with the INF.

I remember much of that having grown up in that era, but in case you are younger, all of it is now public knowledge easily accessible with a few clicks to anyone interested. You however are so narcissistic that it didn't even occur to you that you should check if you're not posting complete bullshit in response to someone calling you out on it. Just in case you may have carelessly written something really really dumb. But your feelings really don't care about facts. Like I said before: TikTok sorely needs you. That's where the best of the best of humanity come to share their wisdom.

Don't you worry about anything I've written here. You go get'em tiger!!!

EOT.
 

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
The propaganda clips are useless because they regularly mess up the chronology of events for psychological effect.

At the speeds and in the terrain that you can see in the clip it is impossible to hold onto the vehicle. If troops ride on top - which due to poor ergonomics is an accepted necessity and not doctrine - and an ambush happens they either immediately dismount or go inside through the top hatches. If you stay on top and BTR accelerates and goes off road you're likely to seriously injure yourself whether you fall of or not. If you're being shot at you're dead. So if there was anyone on top of the vehicle we should clearly see them fall off like in other clips. A dead body can't hold on to a BTR driving like this one.

You can exit the BTR through two side hatches, which open in a way that allows the troops to ingress and egress while the vehicle is in motion. You can also exit it through top hatches which is why it may seem like the someone is falling from the top. But to me it looks like the soldier is falling from the side hatch. When you pause the clip at the moment when the figure is seen falling to the ground there's a dark spot between the 2nd and 3rd wheels. This is likely an open side hatch.

Likely the vehicle was hit by the Bradley and the troops inside decided to escape even before the vehicle was in safe location because a Soviet APC/IFV is not a safe place. Particularly the BTRs which have engines in all the wrong places to retain buoyancy. If a BTR gets hit with 25mm it's not like a BMP where the engine is in a compartment at the front. Everything fills up with hot irritating smoke, fluids etc. There are fire hazards everywhere because BTRs have little in the way of fire suppression. You want to leave asap.
The word ambush is probably wrong to discribe the situation, a more likely word is surprise. Both sides were surprised.

Without knowing what they are getting into, riding on top of BTR isn't an issue. It is only impossible if the BTR run off road, but the Russians did not anticipate that, therefor surprise being a better word for the situation.

The Ukrainian is certainly surprised too. If they anticipated and planned an ambush, they would not have positioned the Bradley in that close range, see the turret turning problem below.

Since it is a surprise, there is no better way as you discribed. Jumping off a high speed viechle isn't better than holding onto it until it slows down, nor do you have a better chance of jumping into the hatches. The outcomes of breaking neck by jumping or being hit aren't much different, the chances are equally high.

An important factor to consider is gun stabilisation and vehicle stability.

BTRs have neither. The gun is not stabilised. The vehicle has very poor suspension and relatively low mass. The target must be at point blank for the gun to hit if the BTR is in motion. The gun of BTR-82A was intended to provide fire support from a distance for dismounted infantry performing assault with infantry tactics. It was a cheap interim solution to improve a major weakness in infantry company firepower. They are not meant for vehicle vs vehicle combat let alone in such scenarios like shown in the clip. I'm genuinely confused as to what the gunner is trying to shoot at.

Bradley on the other hand has gun stabilisation and is a tracked vehicle of approximately twice the mass so it can hit the BTR with high accuracy while moving. It also has better armour so it can risk taking some hits. BTRs can't because they're essentially the same as BTR-60 which is a cheap mass-produced amphibious troop carrier. Because of that protection inside the BTR is symbolic, even less so than in a BMP-1/2. As soon as an BTR is in combat and it can't withdraw it's "everybody out" for the troops because they're literally in the middle of the vehicle i.e. at the highest hit probability area. So all the hatches are opened and BTR can be evacuated through four hatches on three sides: right (1) left (1) and top (2).
With the relative speed between the two being so high, you think the Bradley can turn its gun turret fast enough to catch on the BTR? If not, what is the usefulness of all the fancy stablisations? It is just like a medieval knight can not swing their lancer like a kunfu master.

I'm surprised that the Bradley kept going. Was there an artillery barrage happening at the same time? Otherwise the correct behaviour is to stop, take aim and just rip the BTR to pieces. Actually the Bradley should attempt to charge at the BTR because it has 2x mass and 2,5x the engine power plus tracks and a reinforced frontal plate. If it forced the BTR to take a sharp turn it could even cause it topple over.
With its canon being useless (inadequate turning rate) the only way to get out of harms way is driving as fast as you can. I think the Bradley driver knows what he was doing.
 
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