The War in the Ukraine

MarKoz81

Junior Member
Registered Member
And yet the very "hero" of that famous American battle 73 Eastings, Col.Douglas MacGregor is being pilloried as unhinged/compromised Russian asset, whereas keyboard warriors like Paul Massaro and his like-minded ilk are lauded for their "objective insights" on all things military.

Objectivity in war really depends on the eye of the beholder.

No it doesn't. Objectivity is objective and subjectivity is subjective. It all depends on the point of reference. For objective perception the point of reference is outside of the system. For subjective perception the point of reference is inside the system. There is no contradiction in terms between objective and subjective view of things as long as both are honest. You're referring to two individuals who earn a living by providing dishonest narratives to manipulate their audiences for political aims. It doesn't matter whether their views are subjective or objective because they both lack veracity on purpose.

Objective and subjective is to truthful and false as hot and cold is to up and down. People who use manipulation deliberately manipulate that perception so as to deflect from the fact that they are lying to people, and instead claim "it's a subjective/objective" view. No it's not. They're just lying for personal gain and in this case both MacGregor and Massaro are in the same category. In fact, you will have no more "diverse" category than such narcissistic pathological liars while the rest of population tends to clump together because ordinary people may be selfish, but they are not that selfish so as to deliberately distort reality that prevents social communication and incites conflict. That attitude is fundamentally predatory or parasitic behaviour which is so characteristic of narcissists and sociopaths as to be sufficient for identification of those personality types on that pattern alone.

Anyway. I wanted to post two very interesting clips which are unlikely to be included here.

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A recording of the crew of Cesar Kunikov LST (project 775 Aligator, NATO: Ropucha) fighting Ukrainian drones.

If you observe closely you can easily see why it is such a difficult task for ships which have to rely on machine guns and WW2 methods of fire direction (searchlights + naked eye) and why western ships that are designed to operate in waters where such small vessels are a threat are equipped with necessary systems (25-35mm RCWS with electro-optical sensor heads).

This is map of recent sinking of Sergey Kotov OPV (project 22160 Bykov)
Sergey Kotov sinking.jpg

Recording of Kotov during the incident from another ship.

What most reports omitted was that the sinking occurred near Kerch strait which aligns with my previous explanation. It seems those attacks are not so much about sinking the Russian fleet, as about wearing it down until it can't protect strategic infrastructure from attack.

Fleet and coast guard activity must be much higher in those areas than random propaganda clip from either side will suggest.

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A recording of Russian mechanized assault near Novomikhailivka, south of Marinka near Donetsk.

This one is absolutely amazing, because it shows the reality of what prolonged warfare inevitably must (d)evolve into if not backed by sufficient productive capacity. This is exactly the type of road warrior stuff that so many people laughed off in Syria. But that's exactly what is to be expected after two years of mass warfare.

Most relevant snapshots:

An assault group - two tanks and three personnel carriers.
Ru attack Novomikhailivka 1.jpg

The tank seems to be either T-55 or T-62.
Ru attack Novomikhailivka 4.jpg

Tank on the left is a T-55 variant. Tank on the right is likely a T-62. Those are previously destroyed tanks, not part of the assault group.
Ru attack Novomikhailivka 2.jpg

As of 6/3/24 Oryx lists 5 T-55s and 113 T-62s.

This is the personnel carrier - an MT-LB with removed roof over the troop compartment, with added screens and open top. This is return to early BTR-152 and BTR-60 but is possible in field conditions with limited resources. MT-LBs are likely chosen not only because of availability but also because they have unobstructed cargo/rear compartment that is easy to adapt, compared to BMPs.
Ru attack Novomikhailivka 3.jpg

The forces in Donetsk oblast have always been equipped with lower quality weapons compared to main WMD units operating in Luhansk oblast because of involvement of DPR and LPR militias as part of 1 and 2 Army Corps.

Another video:


This is what Russian MoD has in mind when they boast of "delivering over a 1000 vehicles to the ground forces". Russian industry doesn't have nowhere near the capacity to meet those numbers, even including refurbished vehicles from reserve stocks. Many of those vehicles are sent directly to repair battalions in the rear where they are made into Mad Max variants.

I think we should prepare for more of such videos in the coming months because AFU reports a consistent increase of equipment numbers on the front which may suggest massing before a front-wide offensive but which can be achieved only in this manner, by resuscitating old equipment at maximum efficiency.

source:
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29.10.2023
personnel - 441,7k
tanks - 2324
armored combat vehicles - 5561
artillery 100+ mm - 3148
mlrs - 982
tactical missiles - 48

1.02.2024
personnel - 469,8k (+28,1k)
tanks - 2797 (+473) [+20%]
armored combat vehicles - 7218 (+1657) [+30%]
artillery 100+ mm - 4843 (+1695) [+54%]
mlrs - 1142 (+160) [+16%]
tactical missiles - 48

reserve;
regiments - 17
battalions - 16
other tactical detachments - 2

Naturally those numbers are not verified and may be subject to manipulation for AFU goals but +54% increase in tube artillery suggests a preparation for something big. With those numbers and current production rate this is likely to be a one-off event, a make-or-break type of plan. And that may also suggest an explanation for the new rhetoric coming from Paris and several other EU countries because if these numbers are valid then Russia is preparing much better than in 2022. How it will unfold is another matter entirely.
 
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SolarWarden

Junior Member
Registered Member
I'm not exactly sure what you are going for here, mate other than deflection by bringing up an unrelated scenario of an IFV disabling an MBT, which was never out of the possbilities from one side of the conflict or the other, at least for anyone with half a clue

You said there would be mental breakdown on the tank forums which I don't think there will be since a 1990's Bradley took out a T-90M which is Russia's latest tank which entered service a few years ago and nobody lost their mind. That's all I'm saying.
Now, where your deflection might fail is if you also want to pretend that Abrams doesn't the near mythical status the M1 has on every corner of internet with lots of people still jerking off to 73 Eastings, which in turn has lead to constants claims of how the M1 was going to wipe out every T tank out there in Ukraine

You bring up 73 Easting... aren't you deflecting?

Who him?
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Different philosophies. Russia (and before that USSR) goes for cheap, just about good enough, and reliable kit. West aims for very capable, very expensive, somewhat unreliable and difficult to repair kit.
Not quite true. The Russians can overcomplicate things sometimes. And their leading edge tanks, the T-64 and T-80, were definitively not cheap. Especially not the T-80 with the turbine engine. The T-72 was supposed to be the mass production numbers tank. Meant also for export to Warsaw Pact nations. At this time the US and US aligned forces were using the M60 for the same tasks the T-72 did, well the M60 which is basically a souped up M48 Patton tank from the Korean War. Turkey still operates the M60 today. The US Marine Corps still used the M60 in Desert Storm. Russian salaries are typically much lower than US salaries. So that's how sometimes Russian weapon systems look "cheap" in comparison. But it's not just that salaries are lower. Since food, energy costs, telecoms costs in Russia are also comparatively lower than in the US. So living in Russia isn't as bad as one might think.

The M1A1 is a late 80's early 90's version also known as the Desert Storm tank.
The original M1 was designed in the 1970s and entered service in 1980. So it's basically a little less than a decade newer design than the original T-72. The M1A1 is an upgrade where they changed the original's 105mm rifled gun to a 120mm smoothbore gun. The T-72 came with a 125mm smoothbore gun in its entry into service in 1973.

If are talking about 1991, when Desert Storm happened, the Soviets would have been using the T-72B with Kontakt-1 ERA, and the T-80U with Kontakt-5 ERA and Agava thermal sight.

The Iraqis had as their best tank a Polish license built T-72M tank (a neutered T-72A without the Kvartz armor) with no thermal sight. And their ammo was steel rounds which for the Soviets would have been considered training rounds.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Attempted rotation by the AFU with a pickup fails when hit by Krasnopol. Usually Krasnopols are saved for high value vehicular targets but now they are also being used against infantry groups. Opening the gates for Krasnopol use on Ukrainian infantry has been very bad news for Ukrainian drone operators recently.

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Kornet takes out a Ukrainian DRG. This tactic of ambushing DRGs with an ATGM seems particularly a favorite one with Russian special forces.

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Ukrainian drone landed into Russian custody, likely as a result of being jammed or spoofed.

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Ukrainian positions under fire in the Artemovsk front as the VDV advances.

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Ukrainian tank and SPG gets taken out by Lancets from the 98th VDV in Chasiv Yar.

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CNN publishes an interview with residents of Chasiv Yar, which turned out to be critical of the AFU and is awaiting the Russians.

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Cluster bomb RBK-500 is used on Ukrainian positions in the Artemovsk front.

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ODAB-1500 thermobaric bomb used on Ukrainian positions in Krasnogorovka.

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Lancet from the 3rd SPN takes out a Ukrainian tank hidden in a shelter in the Avdeyevka front.

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Ukrainian vehicles rained by Uragan MLRS with cluster munitions.

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Knock out of a T-64BV by a Lancet in the Kupyansk direction.

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Russians advanced to the center of Novomikhailovka and has already taken the south.

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FAB arrivals in Georgievka. Russians have been reported making deep advances there.

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M113 gets knocked out by ATGM from the Black Wolves of Transbaikal.

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Ukrainian destroyed vehicle being towed away by the Russians. This one still has desert paintjob on.

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Another FAB-1500 hit in Krasnogorovka, at the positions of the AFU 45th.

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FAB-1500 hit at the Krasnogorovka brick factory.

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Russian MoD reports hitting base of Ukrainian marine drones in Odessa as part of massive Geran raid.

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700,000 mobilized people cannot be accounted for in the AFU, according to the Washington Post.

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LMUR hit on a Ukrainian temporary base in the Zaporozhye region.

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Ukrainian stronghold hit by artillery at Ohrimovka, Kharkhiv region.

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Three 2S1 Gvozdika of the AFU destroyed in Kherson via counterbattery.

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PRC volunteer communicates with his Russian counterpart with a portable electronic translator.

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Warehouse used by the AFU in Berislav hit by an air strike.

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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Dmitry Medvedev is making wild claims again.

jWrSTKg.png
 

HighGround

Senior Member
Registered Member
If you observe closely you can easily see why it is such a difficult task for ships which have to rely on machine guns and WW2 methods of fire direction (searchlights + naked eye) and why western ships that are designed to operate in waters where such small vessels are a threat are equipped with necessary systems (25-35mm RCWS with electro-optical sensor heads).

Such as...?
 

Gloire_bb

Captain
Registered Member
2A46 which is the 125mm gun designed for T-64, and used by T-72, T-80 and T-90 is capable of firing modern ammunition - e.g. Svinets, Vacuum APFSDS rounds - that can plausibly penetrate M1A2 armor at 1000-1500m provided that the T-72B3 variant is modified to use it which requires upgrades to the autoloader etc. Not every T-72B3 batch has been upgraded to use modern ammunition but if they are the gun will do its job unless it's already been used too much and has deformed - which is a problem for longer barrels like those used in Soviet tanks or the L55 in Leopard 2A6.
All T-72B3 batches are. All upgrades since the BA are.
Ultimately it's gun and gunners' sight that truly matter the most for an upgrade. Them and radio.
T-72B3 is a piece of junk with horrible ergonomics, mobility, reliability and poor gun stabilisation that is rightfully looked down on by anyone who has any idea about tank operation, let alone having the questionable pleasure of ever riding in one. The only reason why I am referring to it as a piece of junk is because a stronger term is reserved for T-55A - both tanks having served in the Polish Ground Forces well into the 1990s.
Why it's them then who are actually available everywhere around the world (even here, right next to a literal T-64 nest), and it's all the western tanks that are unmitigated availability disasters, despite being the absolute focus of all the sustenance attention, coming overloaded with evacuation vehicles & rich availability of engineering retirees.
However in a tactical scenario it is perfectly plausible for an M1A1 or even M1A2 (the important difference here is commander's independent panoramic sight in M1A2) to place itself directly in the line of fire from said piece of junk because the crew of the M1 is inexperienced, the operation was poorly prepared, recon was not properly conducted or just because of plain bad luck. Once M1 is in the line of fire of a piece of junk which can use modern ammunition the chances of getting destroyed are non-trivial, especially if the crew has acquired some practical skill in operating their tank.
It is an interesting knight joust, but it has no relation whatsoever to operation of a tank in combat.
Even T-90M with its actual IR sight for commander is an important, but secondary/tertiary capability. Much less Abrams's/Leopard's CITV.
that is a situation where tanks of both sides enter the battlefield and have to seek out the enemy, you really don't want to be in a T-72B3 when facing against a technically superior tank, especially a western 3gen like Leopard 2 or M1A1
Already proven not overly decisive in an arty- and now also drone-infested battlefield, for both sides.
For knight jousts it probably was indeed. For actual battlefield maneuvers, for starters, it matters more if your side armor actually stops heavy 6" splinters. Its ability to navigate weak soils without too much detracking, and so on.

From what we see in Ukraine, in peer combat, Russian/Ukrainian tanks are severely outdated. Western tanks are simply wrong and completely miss the point of what a tank on the battlefield is. They're wrong and evolved to be worse than they were at the start, 40 years ago.
(to be fair, T-14 is just as wrong - ideal concept car for an imaginary battlefield)
This is why Leopard 1 performed much better compared to T-55 despite being a tin can.
Leopard 1 never ever was on a combined arms battlefield before 2023, even a Middle Eastern one. The moment it hit one - it almost immediately was withdrawn from tank use.
And for all its backwardness and even w/o any IR sight, T-55AM with side ERA still actually works as a tank. Bad tank, but a tank. Leopard is a tracked gun, which can be put out of action by 152mm 120mm mortar splinters, resource readily available to any company commander.
Tank is a vehicle aimed at its capability to attack, i.e. physically maneuver onto objectives and capture them against opposition. Its ability to fight tanks is of course primary requirement, but only as the means to the end; even tank counterattack is. The moment dueling art gets over the basic attack - it's a stupid circus, where KPI overshadows the actual goal.

This is why the Swedish Strv103 actually was a pretty good tank despite poor armament (105mm) and insufficient armour.
Yet another wonder from people who haven't actually fought a war since the Napoleonic era.
"Tank", which literally can't engage B while moving onto A is anything, but it is no tank.
 
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sheogorath

Major
Registered Member
2A46 which is the 125mm gun designed for T-64, and used by T-72, T-80 and T-90 is capable of firing modern ammunition - e.g. Svinets, Vacuum APFSDS rounds
You need the 2A46M to fire the Svinets, though plus some autoloader modifications

The M1A1 is a late 80's early 90's version also known as the Desert Storm tank.
M1A1SA, which are tanks with upgraded thermals and armor package similar to that of the M1A2, the main difference being the lack of the CITV the A2 has and CROWS.

Same tank Australia bought in 2007 and by Morocco in 2016, so not exactly an original 1980's M1A1.

You said there would be mental breakdown on the tank forums which I don't think there will be since a 1990's Bradley took out a T-90M which is Russia's latest tank which entered service a few years ago and nobody lost their mind. That's all I'm saying.
I guess we missed the part where the T-90M has had an obnoxious massive, decades long, internet and real life fanboy base telling us how it wipes out everything in the battlefield since the days of Desert Storm, hmmm

Or maybe you are just being dishonest here in order to misrepresent the argument and what has been a part of internet life since time inmemorial.

You bring up 73 Easting... aren't you deflecting?

Or purposefully obtuse to derail the thread.

Anyway, video of 4 UMPK striking right along a tree line. Seems these things have gotten better with precision?

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1b8myzw
 
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Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
sa.JPG
Yesterday, an American UAV conducted reconnaissance in the Sochi area for the first time. The US RQ-4B Global Hawk high-altitude reconnaissance aircraft this time works near Sochi, occasionally moving near Sevastopol. Another P-8A Poseidon was working in the usual corridor over Romania.
 
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