The War in the Ukraine

Janiz said:

List this "regular shot downs" here please. Interesting topic.

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"Since that moment, the Russian military has adapted to the GMLRS threat. Its main logistics hubs now sit 120 km from the front, beyond GMLRS range. Its command and control has been relocated to hardened structures, or dug into bunkers at brigade and battalion level. These command posts have largely been connected via field cable to Ukraine’s civilian telecommunications system, rendering them difficult to detect, while GMLRS munitions lack the warhead to destroy them. Russian air defences, meanwhile, have also been reorganised and are now intercepting a non-trivial proportion of Ukrainian strikes in depth."


"Russian air defences have also seen a significant increase in their effectiveness now that they are set up around known, and fairly static, locations and are properly connected. Although Russia has persistently struggled to respond to emerging threats, over time it has adapted. Russian air defences are now assessed by the Ukrainian military to be intercepting a proportion of GMLRS strikes as Russian point defences are directly connected to superior radar"

Tam said:

Part of MGM-140 ATACMS. Not sure what it's trying to hit as residential units and a gas line were reportedly affected, although the gas line is visible here.

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SolarWarden said:

ATACMS took out s400 according to this report

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The aftermath didn't look too impressive though...

HighGround said:

Russian air defences are now assessed by the Ukrainian military to be intercepting a proportion of GMLRS strikes as Russian point defences are directly connected to superior radar

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We know that and what's more I can tell you that I'm 100% sure that a portion of those missiles malfunction. The use of those rockets changed (they're aiming for other class of targets - more to what they're made for) and Russians had adapted (it started more than a year ago! if they hadn't they would be seriously incapable but I'm sure they can do it, for sure not perfectly fine but at least so-so) to those missiles.

But my question was about something else - we can clearly see what Russian propaganda does just above. Yesterday they were saying that indeed there was an ATACMS attack on Luhansk and they even posted a picture of the "aftermath" - few people around defunct small gas pipe with one of it's elements removed and a dug up hole where they put a part of the missile saying those were "downed". And today we saw videos of something else and for sure it didn't look like it made a half meter deep hole in the ground but more likely an element (we don't know which, whether it was launcher or radar) of the S-400 battery hit with "more informed" Russian channels writing that indeed there were losses.

I'd like to see percentages from missile attacks - that's what I'm interested and would love to see how effective in reality they are (from both sides tbh). But it won't happen and even years after the war we won't get meaningful numbers. But we know that GMLRS works, Storm Shadow strikes works and now the oldest scrap version of ATACMS also works against S-400 upgraded systems. And we also know that there's a difference between those and Western systems and it works in their favor. And that's why we probably won't see the best and new ones from the West in this war as those will be saved for "special occasions" and will be expendable only after 15-20 years after introduced.

Leopard 2A4 gets finished off by Krasnopol at Rabotino. Tanks that are demobilized by mines and abandoned by the crew, are so often finished off by quadcopters dropping grenades, FPV drones, artillery and Lancets.


Destroyed AFU vehicles from Ukrainian Tiktoker. Two PT-91 tanks, a trophy T-90M, a BMD-2 of the AFU and an M777.


AFU attempts to retrieve the trophy T-90M leads to the destruction of the recovery vehicle and it's T-72/PT-91 escort by the Sudoplatov Battalion. This is located in the Artemovosk region at Kleeshevka. The same vehicles of the previous.


A camouflaged howitzer of the AFU gets hit by a Lancet.


The Klen Battalion is a special forces detachment of the 247th Cossacks VDV Regiment in the Orekhiv front, specializing in drones, artillery, reconnaissance and sniping. Here they operate a D-20 howitzer landing shots at a Ukrainian position.


We are seeing more Tyulpans in action as of late. Here, Tyulpans are landing their 240mm mortar shells at armored vehicles of the AFU.


Ukrainian EW unit 'Note' gets hit by Russian artillery. It appears to have no effect on the loitering drone above.


Gerans are hitting the Nikolaev region again.


Former AFU soldiers have entered service with the obtf Kaskad, according to its battalion commander.


Fighting in Kremenna as Group O advances forward.


Ukrainian equipment gets hit by Tornado-S.


Some kind of projectile is fired by this MSTA-S.


Deployment point of Ukrainian Territorial Defense Forces is hit by Russian artillery on this village in the Kherson region.


Status on the Battle of Avdiivka.


Destroyed Polish BWP-1, which is a licensed copy of the Soviet BMP-1. It's identified by its camouflage pattern.


CIA Radio Liberty publishes satellite imagery and videos showing Russian military industrial factories being added and expanded.


Artillery fire of the 7th Brigade hitting Ukrainian positions at the Belogovka region.


Ukrainian air defense system returns to its hanger but unaware it's watched by a Russian UAV. This is followed by a Krasnopol strike into the hanger itself.


The work of an Su-34 with FAB+UMPC on Ukrainian concentrations in South Donetsk.


A high precision air strike against a Ukrainian target at the Ukrainian side of Kherson, which I think might be an ammo depot given the explosion.


Osman special forces unit takes out a German recovery vehicle Wisent 1MC.

Janiz said:

I'd like to see percentages from missile attacks - that's what I'm interested and would love to see how effective in reality they are (from both sides tbh). But it won't happen and even years after the war we won't get meaningful numbers. But we know that GMLRS works, Storm Shadow strikes works and now the oldest scrap version of ATACMS also works against S-400 upgraded systems.And we also know that there's a difference between those and Western systems and it works in their favor. And that's why we probably won't see the best and new ones from the West in this war as those will be saved for "special occasions" and will be expendable only after 15-20 years after introduced.

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Well, NATO, Ukrainian, and Russian analysts/officers probably do know, since they have actual data. But we, the audience, know nothing.

None of these attacks, like Berdyansk, Black Fleet HQ, etc, disclose what air defenses were active or the geometry of the attack. I took RUSI at their word because they have actual people on the ground, talking to Ukrainian officers. They probably do have actual data on which they based their conclusions on. But RUSI didn't actual reveal any specifics, or even give any hint as to what's shooting missiles down, on what works and what doesn't. Which makes sense, since they don't want to compromise Ukrainian secrets.

But sitting here, watching Telegram videos, reading various specifications, and army manuals of occasionally dubious veracity, gives us no actual information on whether weapons systems "work" or not.

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So I was browsing Twitter and saw this tweet from Tatarigami_UA




Earlier this year during the Bakhmut meatgrinder, I noted that Western commentary on how Ukraine has very favorable casualty ratios to make very little sense to me.

Tatarigami_UA is now a former Ukrainian officer I believe. He's Ukrainian, not Foreign Legion or anything like that, and his commentary has been very measured throughout this war. Does he love to be gleeful and break down successful Ukrainian operations? Yes, but I've noticed that he tends to go quiet when things aren't going very well. He will rarely comment on Ukrainian failures for obvious reasons. Occasionally though, he will express his disdain for Ukrainian High Command strategy, and other unhelpful narratives that tend to spread through Western Twitter.

This is one such case, where he is quite bitterly commenting about the Battle of Bakhmut.

I believe this is a useful glimpse into what this battle really was for Ukraine.

A decisive defeat with no upside. There were no "favorable attrition ratios", or "strategic trap" for Russia. This was simply where Ukraine decided to draw a line for defense, and they failed to defend that line.

I guess Russia ran out of S400 missiles to fire at Ukranian cities or something

Sounds like bullshit. Russia has loads of decommissioned ICBMs they could use if they wanted to do something like that.
It would be much easier to use a converted Stiletto missile for example.

The Soyuz aka R-7 was originally an ICBM. A first generation one. But it makes no sense to use it for that in the modern era.

The Avangard was already designed for such a mission i.e. Prompt Global Strike. So why not just use that. Avangard can carry a nuclear or conventional payload. They could just do a conventional Avangard strike. It would also be a visible demonstration of the system.

sheogorath said:

I guess Russia ran out of S400 missiles to fire at Ukranian cities or something

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Damn, JIhad Julian are running out of minds. If they want to return the Soyuz into military mission, they need to design new warhead for it. or a dedicated payload. Something which isnt trivial and clearly retarded to do now that Ruskies have so many types of newer missiles they can throw.

Ukrainian armored vehicle gets knocked out by FPV drone.


Lancet takes out a Tunguska from last summer.


Ukrainian combined armor group with tank and armored vehicles in a failed assault as they got knocked out.


FABs hitting Ukrainian deployment points in Urozhayne.


Lancet knocks out a hidden SPG.


Summary update from US Institute of Study of War.


"The main findings of the American Institute for the Study of War:
▪ Russian troops conducted offensive operations at the Kupyansk-Svatovo-Kremennaya border, in the Bakhmut region, in the Avdeevka region, south-west of Donetsk, in the border area of the DPR and Zaporizhzhya region, in the west of the Zaporizhzhya region; in some areas advanced.
▪ The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continued localized offensive operations on the Kupyansk-Svatovo-Kremennaya line and achieved success.
▪ Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully attacked in the area of Bogdanovka Kleshechevka, Andreevka and Kurdyumovka.
▪ The Russian army continues to advance in the area of the terrikon northwest of Avdeevka and successfully defends its position there.
▪ Russian troops conducted offensive operations southwest of Donetsk and advanced southeast of Novomikhailovka.
▪ The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continued limited offensive operations in the area of the border of the DPR and Zaporizhzhya region and moved forward."

MT-12 Rapira 100mm antitank gun on top of an MT-LB with the 40th Marines Brigade.


Another Leopard tries to recover a knocked out Leopard 2A4 and gets knocked out in return resulting in two loss.


ATGM knocks out this Ukrainian tank after a UAV discovered it.

Tor vs Himars shrapnels.



Seems not enough punching power to penetrate the Vehicle.

Cant say same for the phased array radome tho but. That can be repaired.

HighGround said:

and army manuals of occasionally dubious veracity

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Send those manuals that you're reading to me. Russian is not a problem for me.

HighGround said:

Earlier this year during the Bakhmut meatgrinder, I noted that Western commentary on how Ukraine has very favorable casualty ratios to make very little sense to me.

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Because? What are those numbers? Surely not in favor of Russia overall.