The War in the Ukraine

drowingfish said:

it looks like avdeevka offensive has stalled, another failure to prove that neither side has found the answer yet to break the WWI style deadlock.

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Too early to tell you can't tell this in a matter of days, but it does look difficult. However the Russians have also sprung counteroffensives at various fronts and are advancing in them.

Let's summarize what the US neocon Institute of War has to say.



The main findings of the American Institute for the Study of War:
▪ In recent days, Russian troops have intensified offensive operations in the Kupyan and Krasnolimansky directions.
▪ Russian troops continued offensive operations at the turn of Kupyansk, Svatovo, Kremennaya and advanced southwest Swatovo.
▪ Russian troops also advanced along the road east of Makeevka LPR.
▪ Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations on the Kupyansk-Svatovo-Kremennaya line and did not succeed.
▪ Ukrainian forces continued the offensive in the Bakhmut region, but did not achieve any confirmed success.
▪ Russian troops continued the offensive in the Bakhmut region and advanced east of Orekhovo-Vasilievka.
▪ Russian troops have made little progress northwest of Avdeevka, as well as south of Avdeevka
▪ Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations in the western border of Donetsk and eastern Zaporizhzhya regions, but did not advance
▪ Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully attacked west of Staromayorsky and east of Urozhayny.
▪ Russian troops conducted offensive operations in the western border of Donetsk and eastern Zaporizhzhya region and reportedly advanced.
▪ Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully attacked the areas of Verbovy, Rabotino and Novoprokopovka.

Should be "Institute of the Study of War" or ISW, not "Institute of War". Maybe that's how I was unconsciously thinking about that neocon establishment. My apologies.

Polish Krab SPG taken out by Krasnopol.


Russian D-20 howitzers bombarding Ukrainian positions in the right bank of the Dniepr.


Reuters --- As the war drags on, funding fatigue for Ukraine grows.


The New York Times --- Has support for Ukraine peaked? Some fear so.


Ukrainian armored vehicle hit by a Lancet of the 155th Marine Brigade in Vuhledar. Has this brigade been rotated yet? It's been there nonstop since the attack on Vuhledar began early this year.


The 34th Brigade conducts operations at Priyutnoye.


Another LMUR (Product 305) strike at Ukrainian position in Novomikhailovka in the Vuhledar sector.


Lancet strike on an M109 Paladin by the VDV.


TOS being used on Ukrainian positions in forest lines along Rabotino Verbove front.


Ukrainian D-20 howitzer being camouflaged in vain before a Lancet strike from the 40th Marine Brigade.


Satellite photo of barriers in front of Sevastopol harbor.


Project 22160 Pavel Derzhavin returns to the port of Novorossiysk after claimed reports of Ukrainian sea drone attack.


Ukraine introduces homegrown weapon Bars-8MMK which mounts a 120mm mortar on a Bars-8 armored car. This to address a problem both sides seem to have being the lack of enough self propelled mortars. Howitzers are not substitute to mortars they are each on their own.


Maxxpro with the latest cope cage mesh and protection.

Tam said:

Too early to tell you can't tell this in a matter of days, but it does look difficult. However the Russians have also sprung counteroffensives at various fronts and are advancing in them.

Let's summarize what the US neocon Institute of War has to say.

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The main findings of the American Institute for the Study of War:
▪ In recent days, Russian troops have intensified offensive operations in the Kupyan and Krasnolimansky directions.
▪ Russian troops continued offensive operations at the turn of Kupyansk, Svatovo, Kremennaya and advanced southwest Swatovo.
▪ Russian troops also advanced along the road east of Makeevka LPR.
▪ Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations on the Kupyansk-Svatovo-Kremennaya line and did not succeed.
▪ Ukrainian forces continued the offensive in the Bakhmut region, but did not achieve any confirmed success.
▪ Russian troops continued the offensive in the Bakhmut region and advanced east of Orekhovo-Vasilievka.
▪ Russian troops have made little progress northwest of Avdeevka, as well as south of Avdeevka
▪ Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations in the western border of Donetsk and eastern Zaporizhzhya regions, but did not advance
▪ Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully attacked west of Staromayorsky and east of Urozhayny.
▪ Russian troops conducted offensive operations in the western border of Donetsk and eastern Zaporizhzhya region and reportedly advanced.
▪ Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully attacked the areas of Verbovy, Rabotino and Novoprokopovka.

Click to expand...

it has been something like four to five days since the start of the offensive. at least for avdeevka, if the idea is to conduct a pincer around the city, that course of action has already closed. it is the same idea as the ukrainian counteroffensive, if you want to breakthrough enemy defense, that has to happen within the first days, look at offensives in the past and how far they progressed on the first day, even the failed ones. that was when the defender was the most vulnerable. if you didn't knock them down then, you aint knocking them down now. russia's tactical position might marginally improve at the end of all this around avdeevka but they will not be able to do what they wanted to do, which was clearly to cut off its supply routes.

First recorded instance of cope bedding. Works about as well as cope cages:

Traffic on all four lanes of Crimean Bridge restored ahead of schedule​

MOSCOW, October 14. /TASS/. The Crimean Bridge has been fully repaired 18 days ahead of schedule and traffic has been restored on all four lanes, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin said on his Telegram channel.
...
"We’ve fully restored the Crimean Bridge and opened the movement of cars on all four lanes 18 days ahead of schedule," Khusnullin said. "The whole work took less than three months! During that time, two damaged spans were dismantled and new ones were put in place. A temporary bridge was erected for the first one, and the second one was put in place in just eight hours. Both spans required 534 tons of steel. More than 360 tons of asphaltic concrete were used for the road surface," the deputy prime minister said.
...

gelgoog said:

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Traffic on all four lanes of Crimean Bridge restored ahead of schedule​

MOSCOW, October 14. /TASS/. The Crimean Bridge has been fully repaired 18 days ahead of schedule and traffic has been restored on all four lanes, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin said on his Telegram channel.
...
"We’ve fully restored the Crimean Bridge and opened the movement of cars on all four lanes 18 days ahead of schedule," Khusnullin said. "The whole work took less than three months! During that time, two damaged spans were dismantled and new ones were put in place. A temporary bridge was erected for the first one, and the second one was put in place in just eight hours. Both spans required 534 tons of steel. More than 360 tons of asphaltic concrete were used for the road surface," the deputy prime minister said.
...

Click to expand...

I would build some other spans just in case...

drowingfish said:

it has been something like four to five days since the start of the offensive. at least for avdeevka, if the idea is to conduct a pincer around the city, that course of action has already closed. it is the same idea as the ukrainian counteroffensive, if you want to breakthrough enemy defense, that has to happen within the first days, look at offensives in the past and how far they progressed on the first day, even the failed ones. that was when the defender was the most vulnerable. if you didn't knock them down then, you aint knocking them down now. russia's tactical position might marginally improve at the end of all this around avdeevka but they will not be able to do what they wanted to do, which was clearly to cut off its supply routes.

Click to expand...

That's not true. Look at Bakhmut, Soledar, Slavysnsk, Popansky, Mariupol and Lysychansk. All these took quite a bit of time for the Russians to take and they all took losses there. Likewise, Ukraine taking Kupyansk and Liman also took considerable time. Another thing to point out is the Avdiivka train station and supply train were destroyed, already posted video of that, and all routes to Avdiivka are effectively within range of Russian firepower similar to the way Bakhmut was. While Avdiivka is well fortified it suffers from having much fewer supply routes. Another factor that has changed for the Russians are the cheap FAB bombing.

If you look at this map, the pincer has moved right over the north of Avdiivka which means the railroad is cut off, while the southern pincer puts the other supply routes in range of Russian mortars, ATGMs and FPV drones, not to mention the ever present FABs, helicopters and artillery. Not saying it's going to be fast. It's going to be slow and painful. The Ukrainians are pouring reserves in, but note that throwing reserves here means less on others, which is why the Russians have also thrown small arrow offensives in other places all across the front.


The way to describe the situation is the Dutch Boy trying to plug the leaky dam. He plugs one leak, and another opens up.


***

MT-12 Shapiras in action on the Russian side. Ukrainians are also using these antitank guns, now used as general purpose direct fire artillery.


AFU 120mm mortar nest taken out by artillery of the 9th Brigade.


Not familiar with the T-72AMT, but it appears to be a rare variation. The AFU tank is taken out by a Russian FPV drone.


Ukrainian MT-12 Shapiras taken out by the artillery of the 98th Guards VDV Division in the Artemovsk region.


Same Orthodox Ka-52 vlogger again. Ka-52 knocks out one Ukrainian tank or vehicle, then proceeds to take out another, so two kills in one video.


FPV drones are competing with artillery as the main weapon in demolishing fortifications.


Massed attacks underway at Ukraine, including missiles at Mirgorod air force base, with Geran swarms at Mykolaiv, and MLRS (Tornado-S) at Nikopol.


AFU tank hit by FPV drone by Beaver.


AFU supply trucks taken out by FPV drones of the Sudoplatov Battalion.


AFU EW station taken out by FPV drone by Beaver. Both Beaver and Sudoplatov work in the Rabotino Verbove area.


M777 taken out by Lancet. This one had a bad fire.


Night battles in Avdiivka.


Counterattack by the 247th Cossack VDV Regiment regained trench networks in Verbove. Assault carried out with a number of BMD-4s.


Russians counterattacking the Rabotino Verbove front.


M777 gets taken out by Krasnopol in a counter battery duel in the Artemovsk region.

AFU warehouse or ammo depot in the Kherson region struck by a UMPK FAB.


Another AFU warehouse or ammo depot in Kherson destroyed, this time by a Kh-38ML.


AFU BMP-2 knocked out by FPV drone from Beaver


Destroyed German Bergepanzer 2 in Zaporozhye.


Abandoned T-64BV with trawl in Zaporozhye.


Ukrainian tank blows up and throws it's turret.


Map of over night strikes in Ukraine, including air bases.


"attackedThe western and central regions of Khmelnytskyi, Starokostyantyniv, Berdychiv, Kropyvnytskyi, Myrhorod, as well as Zaporizhzhia were also attacked.
In Mirgorod and Starokostyantyniv, there are military airfields of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The Ukrainian Air Force admitted that they managed to shoot down only 2 out of 6 missiles at night."

I counted 9 places attacked though.

NYT --- Ukraine worries that prolonged war in Gaza may dilute global support.


Kramatorsk area. A vehicle repair shop used by Ukrainian forces was identified and destroyed by a strike. The factory is used to repair Western equipment and has Western specialists. The strike may have killed 50 workers and 12 vehicles under repair in the facility.


FAB strike at AFU positions in Urozhaine.

After Oryx, it seems Ukraine Weapons Tracker is also bailing out

Ukraine will soon run out of arty as their western backers have been depleted. Their western backers also need to help. Don't be surprised if by mid next year the Russians are making massive advances as they are stocked full of Nork arty.