The War in the Ukraine

Tam said:

Russians not publicizing this UAV as much as the others, but now coming on its own. Orion UAV uses a version of the Kornet ATGM. This one conducted a strike in Avdiivka.

Scorched earth policy conducted by both sides. Ukrainians are blowing up buildings to prevent Russians from using them as observation and sniper positions. Russians using tanks and artillery to blow up buildings occupied by Ukrainian troops.

Ammunition depot in Zaporozhye hit by the Russians. Previously a fuel depot with an estimated 70,000 gallons was also destroyed.

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Such drones are incredibly weak in the face of a half-capable air defence.
That is why the "invincible" Bayraktar did not last more than 1 or 2 months of the war. Even Zelensky admitted that they were not very useful except for surveillance.
In the Russian case with the Orion it is the same, and this in fact was the reason why the USA does not give Reapers to Ukraine, as they would be easily shot down and studied.

Russia used the Orion a lot in Mariupol, if we are starting to see its use it can only mean that the Ukrainian air defence is really weakened...

After accusing Germany and France of not providing enough assistance to Ukraine, Poland (and Hungary) has banned imports of Ukrainian grain to shield its local agricultural industry:


It’s probably of minor impact to Ukraine, but still the optics are not good

Another Orion attack on Avdiivka, this time against an ammo depot belonging to the 110th Mechanized Brigade. The missile contains a thermobaric warhead.


Two Ukrainian BMP-1 found by Russian recon drone in the forest and hit by artillery.

Right_People said:

Such drones are incredibly weak in the face of a half-capable air defence.
That is why the "invincible" Bayraktar did not last more than 1 or 2 months of the war. Even Zelensky admitted that they were not very useful except for surveillance.
In the Russian case with the Orion it is the same, and this in fact was the reason why the USA does not give Reapers to Ukraine, as they would be easily shot down and studied.

Russia used the Orion a lot in Mariupol, if we are starting to see its use it can only mean that the Ukrainian air defence is really weakened...

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These kinds of drones could operate well above the MANPADS and is inaudible at altitude. So their real threat would be against SAMs like Buks and S-300s. It means Buks and S-300s in Ukrainian service are truly diminished, allowing these drones to operate safely. Lately we have also seen more Forpost drones in action.

sheogorath said:

The bit of on Oryx, even if the twitter thread is outdated by now, is so damning

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It spelling disaster for the NATO/UKRAINE.


The chap gives 90% for full authenticity, and with the next takeaways:
1. USA has no credible intel about the state of Ukrianan army, so they continue the trend established in 90, and steal everything in sight,and lie everyone. And the USA inteligence agencies are clue and useless.
2. NATO running out of materials, now they drip fedding Ukraine with 1000-2000 shell / day,and they can shoot 1500/day.Pathetic. Lack of armoured thingies.
3. most important in weeks time the air defense of Ukraine will run out of S-300 and BUK missiles, and they alreday run out of the NATO suplied SAM missiles. Means game over for the frontline units, all that left for the MANPADS, and pray.
4. USA clueless ,and lack any coherent plan .

So , chances for nuclear conflict will increase in few weeks time, and will be the highest than ever. The cuban missile crisis was a small argument about the split of the tab at diner compared to this.

Seems too far fetched for a potential US Nuclear response for just merely due to ammunition shortages

These are Western analogs to the Osas, which have already taken loses. So these would make viable replacements. While helpful against low flying drones and aircraft, the Stingers are useless against higher flying vehicles, as the Russians switch to glide bombs and higher flying UAVs.


Teplinsky returns. This will matter for the VDV which he is likely to regain control of it.

RottenPanzer said:

Seems too far fetched for a potential US Nuclear response for just merely due to ammunition shortages

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It's more about the time for NATO to decide between letting Ukraine fall or stepping it. If Ukraine manage to push for an offensive and fail, I cannot see other possibilities for NATO than cutting the limbs or stepping in.

Tam said:

These are Western analogs to the Osas, which have already taken loses. So these would make viable replacements. While helpful against low flying drones and aircraft, the Stingers are useless against higher flying vehicles, as the Russians switch to glide bombs and higher flying UAVs.

Teplinsky returns. This will matter for the VDV which he is likely to regain control of it.

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The big problems with air defences for Ukraine forces it's the need to cover the west part of Ukraine and the frontlines. Scarcity brings difficult choices.

WIth the glide bombs, you need to bring systems like S300 closer to the front line to deny Russian aircraft far enough so they cannot launch them easily, but you put these systems in the range of cheap loitering munitions at the same time...

You bring smaller systems like OSA, Starstreak and Avenger systems to the front against UAV means that you don't have them to protect infrastructures from GERAN with cheaper missiles in the west, wasting S300 or letting them through...

Quite hard to choose. Would need quite a lot of systems from allies to be able to defend all assets. Right now they are feeded drips in this regard for a while.

Maybe a little far fetched, but I have wondered for a while on the potential of using hovercraft as a surprise breakthrough element to get armour and troops safely across heavily mined and/or waterlogged open fields at speed.

Most mines used in the conflict are traditional pressure pad trigged, so hovercraft might be able to pass over without triggering them. But the biggest benefit would be to pass over terrain that might have been written off as impassable to catch the opponent off guard.

Almost certainly a moot and purely theoretical idea now that both side’s spring offensives are looking more like summer ones at best, and since neither side have the needed hovercraft fleets for such a gambit. Of the two, it’s Ukraine who would be more likely to take such huge risks (and almost inevitably heavy losses in the assaulting forces and high likelihood of getting cut-off and surrounded, a bridge too far style, if follow up relief forces could not achieve the breakthroughs needed to reinforce and relieve them). Maybe if Ukraine didn’t scrap and sell their 4 Zubrs they might have been tempted to have a go with them and maybe catch the Russians out. Would have been cool and ironic to see Leo2s storm out of Zubrs in an alternative timeline.