The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
That's what analysts think.
In my opinion, Russia is not currently conducting a large-scale offensive. In my opinion, the bulk of their forces are still largely being held back in anticipation of Ukraine's Spring Offensive. These are merely limited scale operations that are intended to improve Russian positions, to help consolidate and supply the front line.
However, I could be wrong. Either way, Russia's doesn't have a whole lot to show for this Winter. A lot will depend on how Ukraine's next few months go.
Has the regular Russian army made any big appearances in the last several months? The vast majority of the fighting so far has been Wagner with some reports of the elite Russian units once every while. Hasn’t heard much of the regular army ever since they left Kherson.
Airborne has been holding Svatove-Kremennina direction, and Russian regulars have slowly improved the situation in the Kupiansk area. I don't remember exactly when Russia took the Dvorichne area (North/NorthWest of Svatove) but it was earlier in the year. Russia has also unsuccessfully tried to take Vuhledar, though I'm sure everyone is aware of that, seeing as how Western pundits and Ukrainians have been parading around that victory around for weeks on end.
Unfortunately for Ukraine, the Vuhledar area isn't all sunshine and roses. Russia did manage occupy some territory in that direction eventually, and while the positions Russia seized outside Vuhledar aren't the greatest, they do have a foothold in the area and they've been consistently shelling the defenders sittings in the city.
There were also some gains in the Avdiivka and Mariinka area in the last few weeks. The situation there continues to degrade for the defenders, but they're holding. Which is good for Ukraine, small and slow advances mean nothing if they're not taken advantage of and if Russia keeps progressing there at this rate, they won't capture either city until 2030.
So to answer your question, yes. Non-Wagner units have been active, but Bakhmut has obviously been the busiest area by far, and has thus received the lion's share of everyone's attention.
Lancet drone taking out a Ukrainian Buk.
Regular army wasn't in Kherson in the first place. It was the Airborne being operated by Surovikin, along with Russian marines units. Regular army was nowhere in sight in 2022 after the first two months. The whole Izyium area were covered by paramilitary units, BARS such as 'Russian Legion', 'Kuban Cossacks' and 'Veterans' of which there are only 6000. Surovikin's active defense and fire bagging in Kherson gave him the promotion to run the campaign from October on, with the condition and hidden agreement that leadership is willing to agree to pull the Airborne and Marines completely out of Kherson.
After the Kherson withdrawal, Prigozhyn had conversations with Surovikin, which Prigozhyn mentioned in an interview, that Surovikin planned to make Bakhmut a meat grinder like the Kherson fire bags. This meat grinder will be with Wagner in conjunction of Airborne forces that had withdrawn from Kherson. By January, Soledar got rolled over. While Wagner gets too much media credit, the Airborne was always right behind.
Ukraine launched a double pincer offensive from the forest around Kremmenaya in an attempt to take the down. The Ukrainians are known to be well versed in forest warfare, and there were elite brigades thrown in that offensive. This time however, they ran into three Russian Motorized Rifle Divisions that were waiting. Supporting these divisions were BARS and other paramilitary units that were veterans in the battle of Liman, and soon afterwards, the Chechen Akhmat division and a part of Airborne. This is one of the most underrated battles in the water but its just as horrific and intense as any. The Battle of Kremmenaya should be known for the employment of a whole menagerie of high tech weapons including Lancet strikes, Terminators and robots in the forest, ATGM raiders riding in ATVs, more T-90s than in any front, the first employment of the UR-77 Meterorit as a direct fire weapon, as well as the return of old weapons such as the MT-12 Rapira antitank gun and the S-60 antiaircraft gun. The front stabilized, losing the threatening bulge around Kremmenaya. Interestingly, despite the intense fighting, Kremmenaya is increasingly becoming a testing ground for new weapons.
The 1st Guards Armored Division which got humiliated early in the campaign are stationed around Svatovo, and is responsible for the fighting there. Last action of the 1st Guards in video is a thermobaric attack using TOS-1A on Ukrainian positions in Svatovo. Other regular Russian units are in the Kupyansk area.
As far as Bakhmut goes, you got Wagner, and much of the Airborne, along with LPR units, of which at least one artillery regiment of the LPR. The Airborne here are veterans of the Kherson campaign, and you are going to see some resemblance with the scenes from the Road of Death between Chasov Yar and Bakhmut to the cemetery of vehicles in the 'Penis of Kherson'. Previously Wagner was the only ones inside Bakhmut with the Airborne covering the flanks and the salient bulge, with the LPR covering logistics and artillery support. However, now it appears the Airborne and LPR are now fully within Bakhmut to join in the city fighting.
Marinka and Avdiivka are mainly DPR units such as obtf Sparta, Somali, Kaskad and the 1st Slavyansk Brigade. Seversk are mainly LPR units such as the 6th Cossacks.
Ugledar are done mainly by the Russian Marines from the Far East or Eastern District, namely Siberians. They have some fire support from the DPR, namely the obtf Kaskad. Initially the Ukrainians had great success repulsing the attack there, with the aid of the 72nd Mechanized, but lately Ugledar, much like Marinka, has been reduced to a pile of rubble which makes it less and less easier to defend.
Zaporizhya front is where you expect to see Russian regulars again, but with Crimean volunteer paramilitaries, e.g. "Crimean Brigade", "Odessa Brigade".
So far the regular Russian army units that have seen fighting are those in the north, with an unknown number located in the south. The bulk of the fighting has been Wagner, Airborne, Marines, LPR, DPR along with other volunteer paramilitaries "BARS". While Wagner gets the media and internet attention, Somali, Sparta and Kaskad battalions are very skilled in drone and artillery warfare, and are responsible for many of the artillery, drone, Lancet, Krasnopol, quadcopter grenade dropping, ATGM, and sniper videos.
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NYT is basically the American version of Jai-hind journalism, but obviously overall a lot better and professional vs run of the mill Jai-Hind gung ho journalism which is entirety of Indian media. They've always taken a pro-war stance so imo it's a controlled leak given NYT track record.
Anyway, overall, I wouldn't discount the Ukrainian counter offensive. With the equipment they've been getting, they're counting heavily on mobility and speed. IMO it's a good counter to Russian doctrine to pummel relatively static front lines with their mostly medium-short range artillery backed by relatively less dynamic chain of command. I think atleast initially we will see Ukrainians punching through and making considerable gains due to precise and focused Intel in and around the breath-through points.
How quickly the Russians can react and adapt to suffocate any advances and inflict casualties would determine the outcome of the war IMO.
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It appears that the strike is credited to the notorious Obtf Kaskad. This puts the strike either in Avdiivka or Ugledar, and puts some context to the aerial bombing of these cities, especially on Avdiivka which has become FAB target no. 1.